SEC Oklahoma

Head coach Brent Venables · 5th season · 36-24 at Oklahoma

Record4-42-3 SEC · 11th
Playoff7%to make the field
Nextat FloridaSat Nov 7 · 7:45 pm ET · SEC Network

The rest of the season

Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Texas A&M 41%

Win out 1% · expect 1.3 of 4 more wins

Oklahoma's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida 40%, Ole Miss 24%, Texas A&M 41%, Missouri 27%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 37% to 6%, peaking at 43% before a game

37%43%W30%L25%W11%L19%W8%L13%W6%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing11th in the SEC · 2-3 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing John Mateer 1,835 · Rushing Lloyd Avant 347 · Receiving Isaiah Sategna 591 All player stats

The nationCoaches #24week 4 poll
The model#36 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #33 (+10.3) · FPI #30
The marketFlorida by 6Betting line at Florida · our model 40% Oklahoma

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Oklahoma:athletics siteSECXYouTube

Schedule and results

Oklahoma · 2026 schedule and results4-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 65% · 5 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #17 to #28
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 4#17#212−40.5✓ +10.5UTEPW 51-0 1141-00-0Pass Mateer 225 · Rush Avant 79 · Rec Sategna 76
2Sep 12#19#18−5.5✗ −12.5@MichiganL 10-17 120Oklahoma lost 10-17 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 59%, low under 1%, high 65%.1-10-0Pass Mateer 189 · Rush Mateer 45 · Rec Beers 94
3Sep 19#15#72−21.5✗ −13.5New MexicoW 14-6 115Oklahoma won 14-6 vs New Mexico. Chance to win started at 94%, low 87%, high better than 99%.2-10-0Pass Mateer 238 · Rush Avant 27 · Rec Sategna 101
4Sep 26#18#2+11.5✗ −16.5@GeorgiaL 13-41 122Oklahoma lost 13-41 at Georgia. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 23%. Roaring2-20-1Pass Mateer 231 · Rush Avant 23 · Rec Beers 84
5Bye week
6Oct 10#22#3+7.5✓ +10.5Texas (N)Top 10 winW 27-24 120Oklahoma won 27-24 vs Texas. Chance to win started at 41%, low 9%, high better than 99%. Firestorm3-21-1Pass Mateer 155 · Rush Avant 72 · Rec Sategna 64
7Oct 17#20#44−7✗ −15KentuckyL 13-21 126Oklahoma lost 13-21 vs Kentucky. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 88%.3-31-2Pass Mateer 270 · Rush Avant 31 · Rec Choice 98
8Oct 24#30#79−1.5✓ +6.5@Mississippi StateW 23-15 133Oklahoma won 23-15 at Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 48%, high 98%.4-32-2Pass Mateer 283 · Rush Blaylock 71 · Rec Sategna 164
9Oct 31#28#29−3.5✗ −20.5South CarolinaL 25-42 145Oklahoma lost 25-42 vs South Carolina. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 67%.4-42-3Pass Mateer 244 · Rush Blaylock 32 · Rec Carreon 88
10Nov 7#35#22+6@Florida7:45 pm ET · SEC Network40% to win
11Nov 14#36#9−4Ole Misstime TBA24% to win
12Nov 21−2.5Texas A&Mtime TBA41% to win
13Nov 28@Missouritime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Oklahoma, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Oklahoma: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31South CarolinaL 25-42359027:46+0.03736.4%1.14Defense's roughest night
Oct 24@Mississippi StateW 23-15467133:16+0.16033.3%1.44Most explosive
Oct 17KentuckyL 13-21346431:24-0.02140.8%1.11One-score loss
Oct 10TexasW 27-24238030:31-0.02233.9%0.81One-score win
Sep 26@GeorgiaL 13-41296435:27-0.29732.9%0.90Season-low EPA/play
Sep 19New MexicoW 14-6299325:52-0.08334.4%1.38One-score win
Sep 12@MichiganL 10-17289226:43-0.13935.9%0.96One-score loss
Sep 4UTEPW 51-0401130:32+0.38755.0%1.19Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)3371.9+0.00337.8%1.12

Oklahoma's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line6.5 winsover +125
Offense poorDefense eliteGives up the big play

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 6.5▲1 since Sep 9
CFP championship#13 in field+50,000
SEC title#5 in market+15,000

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 25-42 vs South Carolina

Oklahoma fans
r/CFB
“This is a game that gets people fired at a real football program. Sadly we’ve slipped into irrelevance. Administration are clowns extending Brent”
3d ago
r/CFB
“I cannot wait until the post game where Brent blames the defense, tells everyone it's never okay to quit on the team because that's not being accountable, and…”
3d ago

W 23-15 at Mississippi State

Oklahoma fans
r/CFB
“Put Fasusi in bubble wrap and pay him so he doesn’t leave when we fire Bedenbaugh and Arbuckle”
1w ago
r/CFB
“If you watched this entire game you may be entitled to financial compensation”
1w ago
Mississippi State fans on Oklahoma
r/CFB
“Yeah but have you seen our O line with a hobbling QB? Oklahoma’s d line might abuse kamario”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7AP #25 Floridaat Florida · on the road
Sat Nov 14AP #12 Ole Missvs Ole Miss · at home
Sat Nov 28AP #19 Missouriat Missouri · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Oklahoma has won two of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
With the best players and the best teams, if they had a quality that you desired for them, or it’s a trait that is foundational to being a good unit, you’re consistent
Venables · On3the day after Oklahoma's 2026 game against South Carolina

Playoff chance, day by day

6% now · ▼ 7 points in the last week

060%6%High 46%, Sep 6Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

1 storyline developing

What Oklahoma’s program standing is really about

The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?

Dynastythis cyclenew

Oklahoma has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-14% tier since 2024, and the market projects 7.5 wins, raising questions about whether Venables' system can reset.

What happenedOklahoma has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 21% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 17%.
The contexta 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedOklahoma's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downOklahoma's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
AnsweredOklahoma's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
AnsweredOklahoma climbed back into dynasty-caliber territory the following season.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Oklahoma · 2026

Oklahoma’s most likely regular season is 5-7. 99% of outcomes land from 4-8 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 20%; 5 wins 40%; 6 wins 30%; 7 wins 9%; 8 wins 1%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-7A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling9-5A conference title and a CFP quarterfinal.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · Oklahoma · Program power

Oklahoma is slipping in the power ratings.

Oklahoma has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 21% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 17%. It is a 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons. The three-year power rating shows a slip, and the coverage is split on whether it is a dip or a trend.

fans are genuinely split doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics2 doubtful posts
Believers3 upbeat posts
Drama: hot
Developing4 new this week
yesterdayWitten named Oklahoma OC
yesterdayVenables admits team embarrassing
6 days agoSouth Carolina DB, RB out for Oklahoma game
last weekOklahoma player dies from injury
last weekSean Hutton hospitalized after practice collapse
Our read
Oklahoma has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-14% tier since 2024, and the market projects 7.5 wins, raising questions about whether Venables' system can reset.
Source of record: Oklahoma has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 21% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 17% — a 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissent
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “SOONERS FIRE OC: Oklahoma Dismisses Ben Arbuckle & Nebraska…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“SOONERS FIRE OC: Oklahoma Dismisses Ben Arbuckle & Nebraska Fan Creates Chaos With Altercation”
KCENTV.com · Nov 3 · read ↗
“FALLOUT: Oklahoma Fires Ben Arbuckle, Brent Venables Faces Critical DECISION --G6 Playoff Latest”
13newsnow.com · Nov 2 · read ↗
“Oklahoma Sooners' crown jewel commit sends clear message after Ben Arbuckle firing, but recruiting questions remain”
A to Z Sports · Nov 3 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish/momentum items making the case that it's working.›

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“Hunter Yurachek explains why Notre Dame was left out of 10 in new committee rankings”
Saturday Down South · Nov 4 · read ↗
““Is He Ok With Losing?”: Fans React As Brent Venables Gets Major Oklahoma Recruiting Win”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Sooners target, No. 1 prospect in Oklahoma sets commitment date”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 3 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Venables won't commit to Mateer as OU's starting QB against…”.›

The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

“Venables won't commit to Mateer as OU's starting QB against Florida”
The Oklahoman · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Brent Venables Outlines How He Can Help Jason Witten Find Success as Oklahoma Interim OC”
Sports Illustrated · Nov 4 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 43 combined points, rock fights

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel43rock fightscombined pts / game16th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate3-2white-knucklein one-score games (5 of 8)1st most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+1.2competitiveavg scoring margin12th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo65average paceoffensive plays / game12th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.12grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)14th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd83,277avg attendance9th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

The Sooners are the seven-title program that crossed leagues and made the Playoff in year three of the SEC — then watched a 17-0 lead and the doubt they came to bury both slip away in one half against Alabama.

Coaches Poll#24

Ever since the leagues changed, the take has been that the Sooners showed up late and out of their depth; the fanbase points to a Playoff berth in year three and says the doubters got the answer…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Oklahoma · Game-day weather

Typical at Memorial Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 83

  • noon: 86, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 83, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 110 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayOffense: Poor, defense: Elite
The experience

Oklahoma is a crown program crossing leagues and still carrying the crown.

Offense: PoorDefense: EliteDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Open questionsOpen: How will Nagy's extended contract impact Oklahoma's future?

Active arcs

Cooling
OU general manager Jim Nagy gets contract extension
How will Nagy's extended contract impact Oklahoma's future?
Read the Oklahoma story →
Program ledgerLatest: Fell out of the AP Top 25 (2026, week 4)

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 4Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 14-6 at home over New Mexicowas No. 24
  • 2026 · Wk 3Fell to No. 24 in the AP Top 25Week 2 · Lost 10-17 at Michigan↓13 · from No. 11
  • 2025 · Wk 11Climbed to No. 11 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Won 33-27 at Tennessee↑7 · from No. 18
  • 2025 · Wk 10Fell to No. 18 in the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 26-34 at home to Ole Miss↓5 · from No. 13
  • 2025 · Wk 8Fell to No. 14 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 6-23 to Texas at a neutral site↓8 · from No. 6
  • 2025 · Wk 5Climbed to No. 7 in the AP Top 25Week 4 · Won 24-17 at home over Auburn↑4 · from No. 11
  • 2025 · Wk 3Climbed to No. 13 in the AP Top 25Week 2 · Won 24-13 at home over Michigan↑5 · from No. 18

Roster and recruiting

Roster63% of production back, talent #17

Roster reload: Oklahoma

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production63%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#17 nationally247 composite 851.1
Portal Additions18Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses29Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss7Heavy NFL Draft loss (7), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#15Top-25 recruiting class
WRin 3 - Trell Harris4.38out 7 - JaVonnie Gibson3.90Starter Risk
current room: 195 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Slot Technician2025 profileBoom-or-bustwins underneath on volume and route precision his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
Two-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
OTin 3 - E'Marion Harris4.38out 5 - Jake Taylor3.60Starter Risk
CBin 3 - Dakoda Fields3.70out 3 - Gentry Williams3.70Even
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Jack Van Dorselaer4.00out 2 - Carson Kent3.70Upgrade
current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Bishop Thomas3.60out 2 - Markus Strong3.70Even
current room: 283 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins the gap play after play
Third program
Sin 0out 3 - Kendel Dolby3.60Starter Risk
Next man up
TE · departedJaren Kanak4★ · Rd 7, Pk 9
NowTrynae Washington4★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (114 players)
UNKJaydon Southard
CBDyoni Hill
DBCasen Calmus, Courtland Guillory, Dakoda Fields, Derrick Johnson II, Eli Bowen, Jacobe Johnson, Jeremiah Newcombe, Lebron Bauer, Markel Ford, Michael Boganowski, Niko Jandreau, Omarion Robinson, Peyton Bowen, Preston Mickens, Prince Ijioma, Reed DeQuasie, Reggie Powers III, Trystan Haynes
DLAdepoju Adebawore, Alex Shieldnight, Bergin Kysar, Bishop Thomas, Braxton Fely, Brian Harris, CJ Nickson, Daniel Norman, Danny Okoye, Danny Saili, David Stone, Jacob Henry, Jake Kreul, James Carrington, Jayden Jackson, Kenny Ozowalu, Matthew Nelson, Nigel Smith II, Taylor Wein, Trent Wilson, Wyatt Gilmore
LBBarrett Travis, Beau Jandreau, Cole Sullivan, Dane Bathurst, Elgee Webster, Jacob Curry, James Nesta, Kip Lewis, Kristan Moore, Marcus James, Owen Heinecke, Taylor Heim
LSBen Anderson, Seth Freeman
OLAce Hodges, Caleb Nitta, Daniel Akinkunmi, Darius Afalava, Deacon Schmitt, E'Marion Harris, Eddy Pierre-Louis, Fred Hinton, Gunnar Allen, Heath Ozaeta, Jake Maikkula, Kenneth Wermy, Michael Fasusi, Noah Best, Owen Hollenbeck, Peyton Joseph, Ryan Fodje, Sean Hutton
PJacob Ulrich
PKGrayson Miller, Liam Evans, Preston Tarpley, Tate Sandell, Trace Rudd
QBBowe Bentley, Jett Niu, John Mateer, Whitt Newbauer
RBAndy Bass, Ben McCreary, DeZephen Walker, Gabe Sawchuk, Jonathan Hatton Jr., Lloyd Avant, Tory Blaylock, Xavier Robinson
TEHayden Hansen, Jack Van Dorselaer, Kade McIntyre, Rocky Beers, Ryder Mix, Trynae Washington, Tyler Ruxer
WRDaniel Odom, Eli Merck, Elijah Thomas, Isaiah Sategna, Ivan Carreon, Jacob Jordan, Jahsiear Rogers, Jayden Petit, Jer'Michael Carter, John Locke, Mackenzie Alleyne, Manny Choice, Parker Livingstone, Trell Harris, Trey Brown, Xavier Okwufulueze
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★★☆
Jamison Roberts
QB · Saraland, AL
#240 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Recruiting and portal buzz

2028 4* QB Trey Tagliaferri commits to Oklahoma
73 upvotes · Jul 2026
2027 4* WR Bode Sparrow commits to Oklahoma
50 upvotes · Jun 2026

Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
6th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
6.5
Sportsbook win total
(42nd among FBS)
Market 36pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Oklahoma State hopeful

Rival pulse

Texas
Mixed
-3
Red River Rivalry
Face-off →
Oklahoma State
Hopeful
+17
Bedlam

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Oklahoma

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site