The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Nevada 67%, Air Force 70%
Win out 28% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
New Mexico's chance to win each game left, from our model: Nevada 67%, UNLV 78%, Wyoming 77%, Air Force 70%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from <1% to 5%, peaking at 6% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing1st in the Mountain West · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Toa Faavae 888 · Rushing Scottre Humphrey 540 · Receiving Cade Keith 295 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow New Mexico:athletics siteXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #73 | #120 | −11.5✓ +19.5 | Central Michigan | W 38-7 117 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Moga 116 · Rush Humphrey 64 · Rec George 36 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #72 | #227 | −42.5✓ +20.5 | Mercyhurst | W 70-7 125 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Faavae 91 · Rush Humphrey 110 · Rec Omeire 70 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #72 | #15 | +21.5✓ +13.5 | @Oklahoma | L 6-14 115 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Faavae 79 · Rush Sibley 41 · Rec Keith 78 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #68 | #143 | −11.5✓ +12.5 | @New Mexico State | W 42-18 133 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Faavae 174 · Rush Humphrey 104 · Rec George 102 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #58 | #197 | −23.5✓ +30.5 | UTEP | W 61-7 118 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Faavae 249 · Rush Mathews 108 · Rec Darling 75 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #49 | #130 | −14.5✗ −3.5 | @Hawai'i | W 21-10 126 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Faavae 59 · Rush Humphrey 90 · Rec Faavae 35 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #50 | #56 | −4.5✓ +0.5 | North Dakota State | W 21-16 121 | 6-1 | 3-0 | Pass Faavae 92 · Rush Sibley 91 · Rec Keith 53 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #47 | #138 | −15.5✗ −10.5 | @San José State | W 21-16 116 | 7-1 | 4-0 | Pass Faavae 101 · Rush Sibley 102 · Rec Keith 30 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #53 | #156 | −9.5 | @Nevada | 9 pm ET · CBS Sports Network67% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #53 | #95 | UNLV | 7:30 pm ET · The CW78% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Wyoming | 9 pm ET · FS177% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Air Force | 4:30 pm ET · The CW | ||||||
Win chances are our model for New Mexico, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for New Mexico: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @San José State | W 21-16 | 342 | 3 | 31:27 | -0.175 | 49.2% | 1.04 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | North Dakota State | W 21-16 | 279 | 1 | 30:32 | +0.020 | 33.9% | 1.31 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Hawai'i | W 21-10 | 337 | 3 | 31:56 | +0.008 | 34.4% | 1.32 | |
| Oct 3 | UTEP | W 61-7 | 492 | 1 | 31:28 | +0.303 | 49.3% | 1.34 | Blowout win |
| Sep 26 | @New Mexico State | W 42-18 | 427 | 0 | 33:58 | +0.355 | 44.4% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Oklahoma | L 6-14 | 185 | 0 | 34:08 | -0.234 | 22.8% | 1.51 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Mercyhurst | W 70-7 | 460 | 0 | 33:33 | +0.251 | 46.6% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | Central Michigan | W 38-7 | 364 | 0 | 37:29 | +0.219 | 49.3% | 0.93 | Best success rate |
| Season average (8 games) | 361 | 1.0 | +0.093 | 41.2% | 1.27 | ||||
New Mexico's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
5% now · ▼ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Sat 10:30 pm · Moves New Mexico’s conference title chance by 5 points
Root for Colorado State over Boise State
Sat 6 pm · Moves New Mexico’s playoff chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · New Mexico · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 6%; 9 wins 23%; 10 wins 42%; 11 wins 28%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
New Mexico is the program that hadn't seen a bowl since 2016 and was picked dead last — then went nine wins, tied for first, and won Mountain West Coach of the Year in Jason Eck's 2025 debut season.
Fans relish that a team the preseason poll buried at 11th of 12 tied for first and earned Coach of the Year — and they want every analyst who wrote the Lobos off to explain how they missed it.
New Mexico · Game-day weather
Typical at University Stadium: noon and 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
New Mexico is the Mountain West program whose Rocky Long defensive era + University Stadium altitude (5,300 ft) + Jason Eck era under construction define what Albuquerque football survival looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
55 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #16, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com), to #25, Ty Hildenbrandt (The Solid Verbal). 15 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · New Mexico · 2026