The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 22 New Mexico 23%, UNLV 24%, UConn 42%
Win out 2% · expect 1.7 of 4 more wins
Wyoming's chance to win each game left, from our model: UNLV 24%, UTEP 83%, New Mexico 23%, UConn 42%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 2% to 3%, peaking at 3% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing2nd in the Mountain West · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Tyler Hughes 1,131 · Rushing Tyler Hughes 617 · Receiving Jake Wilson 242 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow Wyoming:athletics siteMountain WestX@wyoathletics
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #111 | #79 | +2.5✗ −19.5 | @Colorado State | L 13-35 120 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hughes 130 · Rush Harris 63 · Rec Wilson 51 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #112 | #254 | −23.5✗ −15.5 | Northern Colorado | W 21-13 122 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hughes 149 · Rush Holman 80 · Rec Wilson 35 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #129 | #131 | −1.5✗ −15.5 | @Central Michigan | L 10-24 125 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Hughes 173 · Rush Hughes 78 · Rec Frendt 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #136 | #79 | +2.5✓ +19.5 | Hawai'i | W 27-10 128 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Hughes 204 · Rush Harris 94 · Rec DeBlanc 41 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #121 | #65 | +17.5✗ −10.5 | @North Dakota State | L 0-28 119 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Hughes 52 · Rush Hughes 37 · Rec Coenen 16 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #136 | #125 | +4.5✓ +7.5 | @San José State | W 16-13 143 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Hughes 114 · Rush Hughes 92 · Rec Holman 40 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #142 | #149 | −7✓ +11 | Northern Illinois | W 41-23 133 | 4-3 | 3-1 | Pass Hughes 196 · Rush Hughes 183 · Rec Richardson 77 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #132 | #65 | +7✓ +21 | Air Force | W 28-14 119 Roaring | 5-3 | 4-1 | Pass Hughes 113 · Rush Hughes 146 · Rec Wilson 36 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #124 | #95 | +6 | @UNLV | 10:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network24% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #124 | #240 | @UTEP | time TBA83% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | New Mexico | 9 pm ET · FS123% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | UConn | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Wyoming, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Wyoming: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | Air Force | W 28-14 | 301 | 0 | 22:15 | +0.381 | 48.8% | 1.29 | |
| Oct 17 | Northern Illinois | W 41-23 | 510 | 0 | 30:05 | +0.309 | 56.5% | 1.21 | |
| Oct 9 | @San José State | W 16-13 | 345 | 2 | 37:42 | +0.034 | 45.6% | 0.86 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @North Dakota State | L 0-28 | 162 | 1 | 26:54 | -0.303 | 29.4% | 0.86 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Hawai'i | W 27-10 | 387 | 0 | 32:03 | +0.483 | 57.1% | 1.15 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Central Michigan | L 10-24 | 342 | 2 | 24:12 | +0.124 | 42.6% | 1.37 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Northern Colorado | W 21-13 | 304 | 2 | 28:53 | +0.113 | 41.9% | 0.89 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | @Colorado State | L 13-35 | 273 | 4 | 30:41 | -0.025 | 41.8% | 0.90 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 328 | 1.4 | +0.139 | 45.5% | 1.07 | ||||
Wyoming's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Coach Sawvel told us all week that if we won the toss, we were gonna take the ball
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Wyoming Mountain West championship odds shortened, from 1.5% to 4.8% (up 3.3 points) between Oct 13 and Oct 15, 2026.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Wyoming · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 6%; 6 wins 36%; 7 wins 41%; 8 wins 15%; 9 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Wyoming plays the highest home games in major college football — 7,220 feet up in Laramie, where the thin air and the cold are the program's best recruit, and 'Cowboy Tough' is a literal description.
Cowboy fans are tired of being filed under 'cold, remote, forgettable' by people who've never had to play a December night in Laramie. They say the altitude humbles every recruiting-ranking darling…
Wyoming · Game-day weather
Typical at War Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 83, 7:30 pm Saturdays 74
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Wyoming is the Mountain West program whose 7,220-ft War Memorial Stadium altitude + Craig Bohl 2017 11-2 + Josh Allen 2018 #7 NFL draft define what Laramie-frontier-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
91st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Wyoming's 4-8 record this season contrasts with its 2017 11-2 peak, highlighting the challenge of recapturing the altitude-driven, high-octane identity that once defined Laramie football.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Wyoming · 2026