Wyoming beats Northern Colorado 21-13
Team pages: Northern Colorado · Wyoming
Wyoming beat Northern Colorado 21-13. Share this game
We had Wyoming favored. It won.
Next: Northern Colorado beat Northeastern State 23-17, Sat Sep 19
How it swung
The turning point: Holman 12-yd run, fumbles (Q4, 12:25). Wyoming went from 67% to 45% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 23.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
The edge changed hands 4 times before Wyoming won it.
The edge changed hands 4 times and Northern Colorado came out on the wrong end.
Wyoming 21-13 Northern Colorado
Wyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 43 mphNorthern Colorado 13-21 WyomingNorthern Colorado lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: gusts to 43 mphThe two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:0742-yd puntWyoming 57% → 69% (+12)
- 2Q4 12:25FumbleHolman 12-yd run, fumblesWyoming 67% → 45% (−22)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:0742-yd puntNorthern Colorado 43% → 31% (−12)
- 2Q4 12:25FumbleHolman 12-yd run, fumblesNorthern Colorado 33% → 55% (+22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Wyoming -23.5), at 95% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Wyoming scored on 3 of its 12 drives; Northern Colorado on 3 of its 11.
Wyoming’s drives are teal, Northern Colorado’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Northern Colorado’s side
Northern Colorado’s best moment: Holman 12-yd run, fumbles (Q4 12:25). It lifted Northern Colorado’s win chance by 22 points.
Box score
Wyoming 21, Northern Colorado 13
Northern Colorado covered +23.5 by 15.5. The total, 34, stayed under 44.5.
| Team totals | Northern Colorado | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 345 | 304 |
| Passing | 14 of 26, 206 yds | 18 of 26, 149 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 139 yds | 34 for 155 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 16 |
| Third down | 4 of 12 | 5 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 8 for 61 yds | 7 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:07 | 28:53 |
Northern Colorado leaders
- Passing Kenny Lueth 13 of 23, 202 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Justin Guin 17 for 88 yds; Mathias Price 5 for 28 yds
- Receiving Marcus Mozer 3 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Trey Olsen 2 for 69 yds
Wyoming leaders
- Passing Tyler Hughes 18 of 26, 149 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Markell Holman 11 for 80 yds; Samuel Harris 11 for 48 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jake Wilson 3 for 35 yds; Charlie Coenen 3 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Wind all game, gusting to 43 mph at the airport
77° at kickoff · 0.02 in of rain by radar over the stadium · wind 19 mph from the west-northwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 43
A 43 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 59 other games played at War Memorial Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 63°, with about 7 in 10 games between 49° and 75°.
September game-day temperatures at War Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Laramie/gen. Brees airport, 5.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Northern Colorado · 0-2
Rated 255th in our preseason ratings, 254th now.
Two straight losses.
L 23-38 vs South Dakota #125 of 668
lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 29-30 vs Weber State #241 of 668
lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Wyoming · 4-8
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 112th now.
Three straight losses.
L 7-27 @ Hawai'i #108 of 667
lost by 20 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 7-13 vs Nevada #149 of 667
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 3-24 @ Fresno State #100 of 667
lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7-24 @ San Diego State #50 of 667
lost by 17 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 28-0 vs Colorado State #140 of 667
won by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 21-24 @ Air Force #145 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 35-28 vs San José State #116 of 667
won by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 17-31 vs UNLV #62 of 667
lost by 14 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 20-37 @ Colorado #45 of 667
lost by 17 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 6-31 vs UtahTop 25 #30 of 667
lost by 25 as a 24.5-point underdog
W 31-7 vs Northern Iowa #196 of 667
won by 24 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 10-0 @ Akron #154 of 667
won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite
Week by week
Wyoming
- Wk 1Lat Colorado State13-35
Northern Colorado
- Wk 1Lvs Weber State29-30
- Wk 1Lvs South Dakota23-38
The series
Wyoming leads the series 16-5-2
23 meetings since 1905 · Wyoming has won the last 9
- 2022Wyoming 33-10
- 2013Wyoming 35-7
- 1949Wyoming 103-0
- 1948Wyoming 48-0
- 1947Wyoming 44-14
Each line is Wyoming’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Wyoming’s chances here.
Wyoming favored by 23.5 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
Wyoming by 23.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Wyoming.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −22.5 → −23.5 · Total: 47.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 76° at kickoff.
Northern Colorado at Wyoming · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · War Memorial Stadium, Laramie
- 76°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 87weather score, Mixed
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At War Memorial Stadium that day, a 8 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 87 at 1:30 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 1:30 pm: 87, Mixed (this game)
- 4 pm: 85, Mixed
- 5 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7 pm: 85, Mixed
- 8 pm: 99, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Wyoming is worth +4.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-16 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 77 miles to get here.