The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 22 New Mexico 30%, Army 42%
Win out 9% · expect 2.4 of 4 more wins
Air Force's chance to win each game left, from our model: Army 42%, San José State 75%, UTEP 94%, New Mexico 30%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 51% to 100%, peaking at 100% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing5th in the Mountain West · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Liam Szarka 296 · Rushing Evan Medders 490 · Receiving Simon Kibbee 135 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Air Force:athletics siteMountain WestXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #80 | #185 | −31.5✓ +2.5 | Duquesne | W 34-0 121 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Szarka 19 · Rush Conti 74 · Rec Long 18 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #82 | #80 | +1.5✗ −4.5 | North Dakota State | L 32-38 126 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Szarka 103 · Rush Szarka 88 · Rec Long 55 |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #87 | #182 | −4.5✗ −1.5 | @Nevada | W 36-33 149 | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Szarka 92 · Rush Szarka 171 · Rec Kibbee 53 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #88 | #79 | −2.5✓ +2.5 | Navy | W 14-9 119 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Szarka 82 · Rush Szarka 81 · Rec Dawson 39 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #83 | #130 | −7✓ +14 | @Northern Illinois | W 28-7 111 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Rush Medders 114 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #69 | #76 | −1.5✓ +8.5 | UNLV | W 41-31 130 | 5-1 | 3-1 | Pass Medders 18 · Rush Medders 152 · Rec Kibbee 18 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #65 | #132 | −7✗ −21 | @Wyoming | L 14-28 119 Roaring | 5-2 | 3-2 | Pass Fisher IV 36 · Rush Medders 115 · Rec Long 30 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #77 | #92 | −2.5✓ +6.5 | UConn | W 35-26 131 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Rush Hodges 200 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #77 | #59 | +3 | @Army | 7:30 pm ET · CBS42% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #78 | #133 | San José State | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network75% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | UTEP | 8 pm ET · The CW94% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @New Mexico | 4:30 pm ET · The CW | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Air Force, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Air Force: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | UConn | W 35-26 | 359 | 0 | 41:49 | +0.209 | 52.6% | 0.86 | |
| Oct 23 | @Wyoming | L 14-28 | 387 | 3 | 37:45 | +0.068 | 50.0% | 0.91 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | UNLV | W 41-31 | 448 | 0 | 35:13 | +0.383 | 51.5% | 1.21 | |
| Oct 10 | @Northern Illinois | W 28-7 | 433 | 0 | 39:09 | +0.366 | 65.2% | 0.86 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | Navy | W 14-9 | 270 | 2 | 36:01 | -0.150 | 33.8% | 1.10 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Nevada | W 36-33 | 455 | 1 | 36:04 | +0.264 | 43.0% | 1.29 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | North Dakota State | L 32-38 | 386 | 1 | 30:55 | +0.222 | 50.0% | 0.97 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Duquesne | W 34-0 | 450 | 0 | 40:50 | +0.399 | 54.4% | 1.00 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 398 | 0.9 | +0.220 | 50.1% | 1.02 | ||||
Air Force's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Steve Russ replaced Brian Knorr as Air Force's defensive coordinator.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Air Force · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 12%; 8 wins 42%; 9 wins 37%; 10 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 6 of 948 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Air Force plays football the way the Academy does everything — disciplined, undersized, and aimed at one trophy that means more than any ranking: the Commander-in-Chief's, decided against Army and Navy.
Falcons fans say the talking heads write the academy off every August, too small, too slow, the offense from another century, then act surprised when those cadets out-discipline a more talented…
Air Force · Game-day weather
Typical at Falcon Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 7:30 pm Saturdays 79
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 110 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Air Force is the Colorado Springs service academy whose Troy Calhoun triple-option longevity + Commander-in-Chief's Trophy competition + Falcon Stadium altitude define what mountain-west service-academy football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
50th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Air Force · 2026