CFB Zeitgeist Score
44
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 100th percentile.
Josh Johnson
On Trialas of 2026-06-22
Josh Johnson is on trial in Air Force's fan jury — the eye test against the résumé.
374PASS YDS4PASS TD71RUSH YDS
Air Force fans keep putting his case on trial, week to week.
medium confidence2 sources
Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Air Force for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Air Force
Returning around him
- 63% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (0 in / 4 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Air Force · Last season: 4-8 · 2026 recruiting class #129
QB · AIR FORCE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Josh Johnson
- 3
- #11
- 6-2 | 190 lb
- New Orleans, LA
Heisman Heat
#2124
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Air Force
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Josh Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
80
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=5
- Rivals · n=2
- National · n=3
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Josh Johnson
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 5g
374Pass yards
4Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
74.8Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
972.4Pass yards
10Pass TDs
5INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 374): needs 328.2/game over remaining 8.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 374): needs 453.2/game over remaining 8.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 2.6/game over remaining 8.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 3.2/game over remaining 8.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 3.9/game over remaining 8.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Josh Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Air Force, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
16 38th
ATT
28 43rd
CMP%
57.1% 33rd
Y/A
13.4 96th
Passing Production
YDS
374 49th
TD
4 61st
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
34 61st
YDS
71 59th
YPC
2.1 41st
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 5 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 49-13vs Bucknell | 4/7 | 112 | 2 | 0 | 16.0 | 80.1 | Season-high 112 yds |
| Wk 3 | L 30-49@ Utah State | 5/9 | 112 | 0 | 1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | |
| Wk 4 | L 37-49vs Boise State | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | |
| Wk 13 | L 3-20vs New Mexico | 3/6 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 7.7 | 18.0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-21@ Colorado State | 4/4 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 26.0 | 86.7 | |
| Total | 16/28 | 374 | 4 | 2 | 12.4 | 40.1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Air Force4-8HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force | 16 | 28 | 57.1% | 374 | 13.4 | 4 | 2 | 202.2 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 16 | 28 | 57.1% | 374 | 13.4 | 4 | 2 | 202.2 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Air Force | 34 | 71 | 2.1 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 34 | 71 | 2.1 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 374 | #195/382 | 49th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 4 | #159/407 | 61st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 16 | #237/383 | 38th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 57.1% | #256/383 | 33rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 13.4 | #16/382 | 96th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 71 | #168/408 | 59th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 16.2% | #229/428 | 47th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 28 | #234/407 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 34 | #162/408 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 13 | #243/391 | 38th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.1 | #242/407 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 39.2% | #200/428 | 54th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 25.3% | #220/428 | 49th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 19.4% | #241/428 | 44th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 17.6% | #220/428 | 49th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 13.9% | #228/428 | 47th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 13.4% | #232/428 | 46th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 10.2% | #156/428 | 64th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 5 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 52.7 | 0.7 | 7.9 | 0.3 |
| Road2g | 108 | 1.0 | 19.2 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 108 | 2.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 52.7 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 74.7 | 0.7 | 9.5 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 75.0 | 1.0 | 16.9 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
44Mid-pack
Elite: yards / att (100th). Strength: interceptions (92nd). Concern: pass yards (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Josh JohnsonAir ForceCade KlubnikClemson· 56% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 55% simAvery JohnsonKansas State· 55% sim
Yards / att
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Completion %
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Troy Calhoun
Pass share
20.0%
163 pass / 650 run
Plays / game
67.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
10.6%
151 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Troy Calhoun
Air Force
Played his entire career under Troy Calhoun.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownNew Orleans, LA
Height6'2"
Weight190 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamAir Force
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Air Force | QB3 | #2124 | #2590 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.