Air Force at Army
Air Force (6‑2) at Army (5‑3) — Army is favored by 3. Air Force’s rushing offense is at the 99th percentile; Army’s run defense is at the 5th.
This is Commander-in-Chief (AF-Army) — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Air Force · 6-2
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 77th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Army · 5-3
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 59th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 38-35 @ Tulsa No. 81 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s rushing EPA against Army, 94 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s rushing EPA against Army’s defense
Air Force offense, 99th percentile · Army defense, 5th
Air Force’s success rate against Army’s defense
Air Force offense, 93rd percentile · Army defense, 10th
Army’s explosive plays against Air Force’s defense
Army offense, 15th percentile · Air Force defense, 39th
What’s at stake
Air Force
- Air Force is 1 game back in Mountain West with 3 left to make it up.
- Air Force hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Army
- Army needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 88% with a loss.
- Jeff Monken is 7-5 all-time against Troy Calhoun.
The series
Air Force leads the series 38-21-1
60 meetings since 1959 · Army has won the last 3
- 2025Army 20-17
- 2024Army 20-3
- 2023 · neutral siteArmy 23-3
- 2022 · neutral siteAir Force 13-7
- 2021 · neutral siteArmy 21-14
Each line is Army’s chance to win through that meeting. Army is 3-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Air Force
The chip · vs the national mediaFalcons fans say the talking heads write the academy off every August — too small, too slow, the offense from another century — then act surprised when those cadets out-discipline a more talented roster on a Saturday in Colorado Springs.
Army
The chip · vs the national mediaBlack Knights fans say the sport treats Army as a quaint December novelty — a parade of cadets and a salute — and forgets that those same cadets went 12-2 and won the Trophy a year ago; they say the respect never arrives until the scoreboard forces it.
Best players
Air Force
- Blake Fletcher (LB) · 80 tackles
- Dallas Daley (LB) · 46 tackles
- Max Mustell (DB) · 33 tackles
Army
- Cale Hellums (QB) · 874 rushing yards
- Elijah Walton (LB) · 54 tackles
- Stephen Nnadozie (S) · 46 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Evan Medders (QB) — Air Force’s leading rusher (490 rushing yards) takes on Army’s run defense (5th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 3.0 points toward Air Force since opening (−6 → −3).
The total has moved down 7.0 points since opening (52.5 → 45.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Army fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (61st percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Army favored by 3 · Total 45.5
Army by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Army’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Michie Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 93
Air Force at Army · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Michie Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Michie Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 89.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Army is worth +4.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.
69% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (27-12 home, 18-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,629 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Army
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana Tech29-31
- Wk 6Wvs Tulane20-17
- Wk 7Wvs Florida Atlantic56-24
- Wk 8Wat Tulsa38-35
- Wk 9Lat Memphis22-49
Air Force
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
- Wk 6Wat Northern Illinois28-7
- Wk 7Wvs UNLV41-31
- Wk 8Lat Wyoming14-28
- Wk 9Wvs UConn35-26
Power rating by week
Army is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Air Force.
The total fell 7 points.
Spread: −6 → −3 · Total: 52.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Last meeting in our History pages
- Army 20, Air Force 17Nov 1, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.