The rest of the season
Three real tests left: South Florida 30%, North Texas 33%, Tulsa 59%
Win out 4% · expect 1.9 of 4 more wins
Tulane's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tulsa 59%, Rice 70%, North Texas 33%, South Florida 30%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 78% to 69%, peaking at 78% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the American Athletic · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Kadin Semonza 804 · Rushing Johnnie Daniels 493 · Receiving Destyn Hill 390 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Tulane:athletics siteAmerican AthleticXYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #75 | #67 | +9.5✗ −4.5 | @Duke | L 3-17 133 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Semonza 140 · Rush Daniels 31 · Rec Hill 67 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #74 | #61 | −9.5✗ −5.5 | South Alabama | W 28-24 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Semonza 212 · Rush Lucas 214 · Rec Hill 91 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #71 | #25 | +20.5✓ +9.5 | @Kansas State | L 20-31 124 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Semonza 165 · Rush Turner 64 · Rec Mitchell Jr. 41 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #74 | #77 | −17.5✗ −14.5 | Southern Miss | W 24-21 141 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Semonza 129 · Rush Turner 200 · Rec Brown 85 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #86 | #47 | +5.5✓ +2.5 | @Army | L 17-20 117 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Semonza 158 · Rush Daniels 67 · Rec Hill 54 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #91 | #56 | +6.5✓ +20.5 | Memphis | W 31-17 141 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Johnson 165 · Rush Daniels 55 · Rec Hill 62 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #73 | #33 | +3✗ −20 | UTSA | L 19-42 136 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Johnson 265 · Rush Daniels 104 · Rec Mmahat 62 |
| 9 | Oct 30 | #82 | #190 | −8.5✗ −1.5 | @Charlotte | W 38-31 149 Firestorm | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Johnson 284 · Rush Daniels 99 · Rec Lewis Jr. 55 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #85 | #90 | +1.5 | Tulsa | 12 pm ET · ESPNU59% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #85 | #163 | @Rice | time TBA70% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | North Texas | time TBA33% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @South Florida | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Tulane, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Tulane: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | @Charlotte | W 38-31 | 467 | 2 | 26:13 | +0.310 | 53.4% | 1.01 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | UTSA | L 19-42 | 332 | 6 | 24:41 | +0.076 | 29.7% | 1.82 | |
| Oct 16 | Memphis | W 31-17 | 325 | 2 | 30:48 | -0.008 | 29.0% | 1.38 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Army | L 17-20 | 280 | 1 | 24:26 | -0.057 | 30.8% | 1.86 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Southern Miss | W 24-21 | 445 | 1 | 30:42 | +0.132 | 35.4% | 1.52 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Kansas State | L 20-31 | 260 | 0 | 26:19 | +0.059 | 33.9% | 1.53 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | South Alabama | W 28-24 | 424 | 0 | 22:20 | +0.356 | 36.5% | 2.15 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Duke | L 3-17 | 258 | 1 | 23:25 | +0.004 | 30.9% | 0.80 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 349 | 1.6 | +0.109 | 35.0% | 1.51 | ||||
Tulane's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Just to be candid, he got in, he had, to his credit he fought with Tulane when he got hired at Florida
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Will Hall, who led Southern Miss to an 11-3 season and a #17 AP ranking, inherits a 15% production roster at Tulane — the program's third head coach in five.
Statusdeveloping
Jon Sumrall's second season at Tulane follows an 11-3 campaign and a #17 AP finish, with coordinator changes reshaping units as the program builds on its historic-southern-football identity.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Tulane · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 6%; 5 wins 27%; 6 wins 41%; 7 wins 23%; 8 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Will Hall took over as Tulane's head coach, replacing Jon Sumrall. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 248 of 1854 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 34 of 1854 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Tulane helped found the Sugar Bowl and the SEC, then nearly drowned — a hurricane-battered, win-starved program that came back from the dead to make the first 12-team Playoff, becoming the first Louisiana team ever to crash the field.
Across town and up the road sits LSU, the SEC giant that swallowed all of Louisiana's football oxygen after Tulane walked away from the conference. Fans believe the state forgot the Green Wave…
Tulane · Game-day weather
Typical at Yulman Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, noon Saturdays 77
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 111 at 3:30 pm, 110 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Tulane is the New Orleans private university whose 1925 Sugar Bowl founding + Willie Fritz 2022 12-2 Cotton Bowl championship + Yulman Stadium urban-campus identity define what historic-southern-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
84th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Tulane · 2026