CFB Zeitgeist
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Tulane

11-3 2025 final AP #17COACHES #18CFP #20

Tulane is the New Orleans private university whose 1925 Sugar Bowl founding + Willie Fritz 2022 12-2 Cotton Bowl championship + Yulman Stadium urban-campus identity define what historic-southern-football looks like.

Riptide the Pelican is patient.

Record
11-3
win% .785
SP+
+2.3
AP / Coaches
#17
Bowl Status
Eligible
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Tulane helped found the Sugar Bowl and the SEC, then nearly drowned — a hurricane-battered, win-starved program that came back from the dead to make the first 12-team Playoff, becoming the first Louisiana team ever to crash the field.

AP Top 25#17 AP

Tulane went 11-3 in 2025, won its second straight AAC title with a 34-21 win over North Texas, and became the first Louisiana program to reach the College Football Playoff, entering as the No. 11 seed before losing 41-10 at Ole Mi…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Tulane helped found the SEC and the Sugar Bowl, then left the conference in 1966 and spent fifty years outside the big time. In 2025, the Green Wave won the AAC title and became the first Louisiana program ever to reach the College Football Playoff. Jon Sumrall coached the Playoff game on his way out the door to Florida.

The founding credential is real: Tulane was a charter member of the Southeastern Conference, hosted the first Sugar Bowls, and won conference championships in the 1920s and 1930s. Then the program de-emphasized, walked away from the SEC, and spent the next half-century as a hard-luck New Orleans program playing in the Superdome while LSU owned the state's football oxygen. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 scattered the team across the country and nearly ended what remained. That history — the founding, the fall, the near-death — is the context for everything Willie Fritz and then Jon Sumrall rebuilt.

Sumrall's 2025 was the loudest chapter yet: an 11-3 season, a 34-21 win over North Texas in the AAC title game, and a Playoff berth as the No. 11 seed — the first Louisiana program ever in the field. QB Jake Retzlaff, a BYU transfer, ran for 16 touchdowns and threw for 14. Ole Miss eliminated Tulane 41-10 in the first round, and Sumrall departed for Florida the day after the season ended, having coached the Playoff game with a new job already signed. Will Hall, promoted from within, now runs the program.

The 2026 question is the one that has haunted this revival: can Tulane keep the coach who wins? Fritz left for Houston after building the 2022 Cotton Bowl team. Sumrall left for Florida after building the Playoff team. Hall is the program's third head coach in three years of sustained success — a New Orleans institution that has proven it can reach the Playoff and has not yet proven it can hold the men who took it there.

How they play

New Orleans resilience — physical, opportunistic, defense-and-run football built on a chip earned from coming back from the brink. Retzlaff's dual-threat skill set gave the 2025 offense a floor when the passing game stalled; Hall inherits a system built around that versatility and a roster that has experienced back-to-back conference title runs. Yulman Stadium, the on-campus home Tulane returned to in 2014 after decades in the Superdome, puts football back at the heart of uptown New Orleans — and makes the program feel like a destination again.

program outlook · as of 2026-06-14
How They Play · 2025

Tulane fields a strong offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

OffenseStrong74th pct EPA/play · FBS
DefenseSolid55th pct EPA allowed · FBS
Defensive shapeBend-don't-break84th pct at limiting explosive plays

Identity computed from opponent-adjusted EPA, success rate, explosiveness, and run/pass volume — percentiles vs all FBS.

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Tulane faces a high-volatility season with heavy roster turnover and low returning continuity

The team's recruiting rank of #74 and significant transfer losses suggest a challenging path, though incoming talent may provide opportunities for improvement.

  • Roster reloadTulane has a returning_total_pct of 15% and a reload_score of "Low continuity / heavy reload", indicating minimal continuity and heavy reliance on new talent.
Data as of 2026-06-22 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Tulane

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#74 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 175.3

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

15%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Heavy roster turnover. QB position open.

Talent Composite

#68 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 650.9

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

20 in / 27 out

2026 cycle · in 20 / out 27

Portal losses outpace additions; position detail lives in Roster Reload.

Tulane · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Tulane's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Tulane enters 2025 rated No. 45 in SP+ (+6.3).

the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
why it mattersTulane enters 2025 at No. 45 in SP+ — the 11-3 record under Jon Sumrall sets a high bar for a team replacing nearly all its production.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Tulane

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-22
Returning Production15%Low continuity / heavy reload
Portal Additions20No clear position repair point
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#74Depth class (#74)
CBin 3 - Justin Agu3.60out 3 - Jahiem Johnson4.00Even
WRin 3 - Destyn Hill4.28out 3 - Shazz Preston3.90Even
RBin 3 - Jaylin Lucas3.70out 3 - Javin Gordon3.60Even
EDGEin 2 - Reshad Sterling3.49out 3 - Joshua Brantley3.60Downgrade
IOLin 2 - Gavin Marks3.50out 3 - Shadre Hurst3.70Downgrade
DLin 1 - Ed Smith IV3.30out 3 - Santana Hopper3.70Starter Risk

The Pulse on Tulane

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
Riptide the Pelican is patient.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Roll Wave" — Tulane fanbase · recurring line
10 mentions · awaiting signal

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Tulane

8 wins

Above the program's recent baseline.

Beat a top-10 opponent

Statement win that reshapes recruiting.

Conference championship game appearance

Plausible breakthrough.

NY6 bowlLocked

Beyond modern reach without a transformative year.

Tulane · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#44 in field+25000
AAC title#4 in market+550

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Tylan George
IOL · West Monroe, LA
#602 national
★★★☆☆
Keyshaun Coleman
WR · Madison, MS
#1158 national
★★★☆☆
Myrone Jean
S · Lake Wales, FL
#1296 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

11
AL · 2CA · 2GA · 2LA · 2FL · 1MS · 1TN · 1

AL leads the 2026 class with 2 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

47 signees across 9 states, 2023-2026. LA leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Tulane

Power Program

Power Program — consistent P4 presence and regional brand strength.

Historical peak: Tier 4 · National Program (1934 unbeaten season + 10-1 + Rose Bowl appearance under Ted Cox; 2022 12-2 + Cotton Bowl championship + #9 final AP under Willie Fritz). Current tier: Tier 3.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Tulane

CFB Zeitgeist

#42

+2.3

SP+

#45

+6.3

FPI

#54

+3.7

Elo

#53

1583

SRS

#56

+3.0

The national models put Tulane between 45th and 56th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 42nd.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Tulane

Reads Like

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Tulane

Jon Sumrall

Jon Sumrall in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.

Era Jon Sumrall · 2024–presentPrev: Slade Nagle (2023)
2 years · era

Rituals

Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.

1925 Sugar Bowl Founding

since 1925

Tulane co-founded the Sugar Bowl game in 1925 — the first-ever Sugar Bowl was a Tulane vs Temple matchup. The Sugar Bowl became one of CFB's premier postseason fixtures, partially due to Tulane's institutional role + New Orleans geographic identity. The Sugar Bowl's roots are uniquely Tulane's.

Willie Fritz 2022 Cotton Bowl Run

since 2022

Willie Fritz's 2022 12-2 + American Athletic championship + Cotton Bowl championship (beating USC 46-45 in the Cotton Bowl) + #9 final AP rank was the program's modern peak. The 2022 win + the 17-point fourth-quarter comeback + Michael Pratt at QB cemented Tulane as G5 contender.

Yulman Stadium On-Campus

since 2014

Yulman Stadium (built 2014) — Tulane's first on-campus stadium since 1974 — anchors the modern era. The 30,000 capacity + Uptown New Orleans setting + the Mardi Gras / Bourbon Street game-day proximity make the venue uniquely New Orleans + uniquely Tulane.

Fanbase Health Index · Tulane · medium confidence

Growing (62)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 11-3 (79% win rate)73
Volume — 10 effective signal-N50

Home-Field Advantage · Tulane · 2018-present

Strong

70% home win rate vs 61% on the road. margin runs +11.4 better at home.

Home28-12Away22-14

Statement Wins · 2025

2

2 wins over AP top-25 opponents. Headlined by #20 North Texas.

#20 North Texas#22 Memphis

Chronicle Visuals

6 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

A heavy-turnover 2025: 15% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.

A heavy-turnover 2025: 15% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025A heavy-turnover 2025: 15% returning(below average), with the offense thebiggest question.QB roomQB room: 2% returning2%OffenseOffense: 15% returning15%OverallOverall: 15% returning15%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the WR room but opened a hole at DL.

The portal upgraded the WR room but opened a hole at DL.Net -7 · upgraded WR · hole at DL. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 20 in / 27 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the WR room butopened a hole at DL.OUTINCBCB: 3 out3CB: 3 in3net 0DLDL: 3 out3DL: 1 in1net -2EDGEEDGE: 3 out3EDGE: 2 in2net -1IOLIOL: 3 out3IOL: 2 in2net -1KK: 1 out1K: 1 in1net 0LBLB: 1 out1LB: 1 in1net 0LSLS: 1 out1net -1OTOT: 1 out1OT: 1 in1net 0PP: 1 out1net -1QBQB: 1 out1QB: 1 in1net 0RBRB: 3 out3RB: 3 in3net 0SS: 1 out1net -1TETE: 2 out2TE: 2 in2net 0WRWR: 3 out3WR: 3 in3net 0▸ Net -7 · upgraded WR · hole at DL.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 20 in / 27 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

DB took the biggest 2025 draft hit (2 picks) — the reload watch is on.

DB took the biggest 2025 draft hit (2 picks) — the reload watch is on.2 drafted · 6 capital units. Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost by position + portal answers · 2025 · medium confidenceNFL DRAFT · 2025DB took the biggest 2025 draft hit (2picks) — the reload watch is on.DBDB: 2 picks2 picks+3 portal▸ 2 drafted · 6 capital units.Source: CFB Index — round-weighted draft capital lost byposition + portal answers · 2025 · medium confidence
solid read
2026 preview

Tulane converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.

Tulane converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.Talent 48th, draft yield 70th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceTULANE · TALENT YIELDTulane converts recruit talent intodraft picks better than its class ranksuggests.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileTulane — 48 / 70 pctileTulaneWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 48th, draft yield 70th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

A roller-coaster 2024 — big weekly swings, but the ride trended upward.

A roller-coaster 2024 — big weekly swings, but the ride trended upward.wild week to week — but the arrow keeps pointing up. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024A roller-coaster 2024 — big weeklyswings, but the ride trended upward.Game 1: -2.12 power swingGame 2: -2.12 power swingGame 3: +1.00 power swingGame 4: +1.00 power swingGame 5: +0.19 power swingGame 6: +0.19 power swingGame 7: +0.76 power swingGame 8: +0.76 power swingGame 9: +1.65 power swingGame 10: +1.65 power swing-2.1▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ wild week to week — but the arrow keeps pointing up.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

W 45-10 vs South Florida leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

W 45-10 vs South Florida leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.W 45-10 vs South Florida is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSW 45-10 vs South Florida leads theseason's top 5 results by combined powerand résumé delta.W 45-10 vs South FloridaW 45-10 vs South Florida — +2.02 résumé impactW 45-10 vs South Florida — +2.02 résumé impact+2.02W 41-33 vs LouisianaW 41-33 vs Louisiana — +1.16 résumé impact+1.16L 27-34 vs Kansas StateL 27-34 vs Kansas State — +0.25 résumé impact+0.25L 19-34 vs OklahomaL 19-34 vs Oklahoma — +0.13 résumé impact+0.13W 52-0 vs SE LouisianaW 52-0 vs SE Louisiana — -2.12 résumé impact-2.12▸ W 45-10 vs South Florida is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
THE SAVANT CARD · Tulane · 2025

Tulane reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 17%) and passing epa (top 20%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Tulane sits at the 20th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.21
74th
Success Rate +0.45
72nd
Explosive Plays +1.23
38th
Rushing EPA +0.08
41st

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.14
55th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
21st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.17
84th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.28
38th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.39
80th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.03
71st
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · opponent-adjusted · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 139 FBS peers
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Tulane lives rent-free in
  1. UTSA6%
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up Tulane
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · TULANE · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Tulane enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Tulane enters 2025 rated No. 45 in SP+ (+6.3). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
💬 fans: 100% volume
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Tulane enters 2025 at No. 45 in SP+ — the 11-3 record under Jon Sumrall sets a high bar for a team replacing nearly all its production.
Source of record: Tulane enters 2025 rated No. 45 in SP+ (+6.3) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣THE BELIEVERS6 bullish/recruiting items — the case it's working.

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Wide receiver Joshua Sylvain becomes latest Tulane 2027 commitment”
Crescent City Sports · 2026-06-20 · read ↗
“Will Hall Keeps Tulane Atop American in Recruiting Rankings”
roundtable.io · 2026-06-18 · read ↗
“Wide receiver Dallas Crescenzo becomes 20th Tulane football commit for 2027”
Crescent City Sports · 2026-06-18 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICSNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬THE BOARDS1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 1 of 1 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Look no further than this Tulane fan upvoting an LSU fan about this. 😂 #unifying"
r/CFB fan
"Can we work something out as far as you guys bringing some Balcones whiskey during your Tulane road trips? We get a couple of their top lines here, but I want to try some more."
r/CFB fan

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice. Per-event for/against lands when event-level sentiment coverage is wired.

Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Warming

Four of five. The board favors this trend.

Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 8-2

Season Standing · 2025 · 11-3 · CFP #20 / AP #17

Ranked (25-16)

Tulane: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

American Athletic Standing · 2025

3rd in the American Athletic

Tulane is 3rd in the American Athletic at 11-3. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.

#ProgramRecord
1North Texas12-2
2Navy11-2
3Tulane11-3
4East Carolina9-4
5South Florida9-4
6Memphis8-5
7Army7-6
8UTSA7-6
9Temple5-7
10Rice5-8
11Florida Atlantic4-8
12Tulsa4-8
13UAB4-8
14Charlotte1-11

Schedule Strength · Tulane · 2025

Hard

Average opponent win rate 52% across 13 finalized games. 3 AP top-25 opponents played (North Texas, Ole Miss, Memphis).

Opp Win %0.522
Top-253
Top-101

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Chris Rodgers LB 80.0 tot (def)
2. Jack Tchienchou S 80.0 tot (def)
3. Jake Retzlaff QB 3,168 yds (pass)
4. Shazz Preston WR 723 yds (rec)
5. Bailey Despanie S 52.0 tot (def)

NFL Draft Pipeline

2023–2025

Developing

6 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.

6 picks · 0 R1
#81 Tyjae Spears Running Back · 2023 · Tennessee
#88 Caleb Ransaw Cornerback · 2025 · Jacksonville
#91 Dorian Williams Inside Linebacker · 2023 · Buffalo

Moment of the Year · Tulane · 2025

Postseason · Lost 10-41 at Ole Miss

Week 17 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.

Decisive MarginPostseasonvs Top-10 (#6)

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2022-2025): 1-3

Most recent: 2025 — loss 41-10 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-3.

2025202420232022

From the Archive — Tulane

2024: Lost 14-35 at Army

In 2024, the program lost 14-35 at Army — a stinging road result, 21 points either way.

Roll Wave. New Orleans cheers.