Memphis beats Army 49-22
Memphis beat Army 49-22. Share this game
We had Army favored. Memphis won.
Next: Army vs Air Force, Sat Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ET · Army favored by 3
Next: Memphis at South Florida, Thu Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ET
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 44% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.
Favored the whole way: Memphis never fell below 66%.
Army never had better than a 33% chance.
Memphis 49-22 Army
Memphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.4 in of rainArmy 22-49 MemphisArmy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.4 in of rainThe two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:24Nwawuihe 5-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Memphis 81% → 68% (−13)
- 2Q2 6:14Carter 1-yd TD run, Memphis goes ahead 21-14Memphis 74% → 87% (+13)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:24Nwawuihe 5-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Army 19% → 32% (+13)
- 2Q2 6:14Carter 1-yd TD run, Memphis goes ahead 21-14Army 26% → 13% (−13)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Memphis -6), at 71% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Memphis scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Army on 3 of its 12.
Memphis’s drives are teal, Army’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Army’s side
Army’s best moment: Nwawuihe 5-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1 2:24). It lifted Army’s win chance by 13 points.
What it cost
Memphis’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 31, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Army plays vs Air Force on Sat Nov 7 with a 4% chance to win the conference. Memphis plays at South Florida on Thu Nov 12 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Memphis 49, Army 22
Memphis covered −6 by 21. The total, 71, went over 59.5.
| Team totals | Army | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 365 | 554 |
| Passing | 5 of 10, 45 yds | 29 of 36, 371 yds |
| Rushing | 51 for 320 yds | 39 for 183 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 27 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 11 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 4 for 40 yds | 2 for 15 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:55 | 28:05 |
Army leaders
- Passing Cale Hellums 4 of 7, 40 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Godspower Nwawuihe 19 for 100 yds, 1 TD; Zach Mundell 2 for 78 yds
- Receiving Zach Mundell 1 for 16 yds; Samari Howard 2 for 15 yds, 1 TD
Memphis leaders
- Passing Marcus Stokes 29 of 35, 371 yds, 4 TD
- Rushing Jaylin Carter 23 for 96 yds, 2 TD; Manny Covey 9 for 57 yds
- Receiving Jermane Hayes 9 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Hunter Tipton 5 for 86 yds
Rain for part of the game
72° at kickoff · 0.4 in of rain · wind 9 mph from the east, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 20
0.4 in of rain is more than fell in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
October game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
The same game in two conditions
| Heavier rain | Light rain or none | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs and passes | 19 | 93 |
| Share that were passes | 21% | 40% |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 6.7 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
How this is counted
Heavier rain means 0.02 inch or more in 10 minutes at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.Where this weather comes from
Measured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Army · 5-2
Rated 39th in our preseason ratings, 49th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 38-35 @ Tulsa No. 81 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
Last three games
Memphis · 6-2
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 65th now, up 35 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Memphis
- Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
- Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8
- Wk 6Wvs UAB38-13
- Wk 7Lat Tulane17-31
- Wk 8Wvs East Carolina41-34
Army
- Wk 4Wat Temple21-17
- Wk 5Lat Louisiana Tech29-31
- Wk 6Wvs Tulane20-17
- Wk 7Wvs Florida Atlantic56-24
- Wk 8Wat Tulsa38-35
Power rating by week
Army is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Memphis’s passing EPA against Army, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Memphis’s passing EPA against Army’s defense
Memphis offense, 95th percentile · Army defense, 8th
Memphis’s EPA/play against Army’s defense
Memphis offense, 83rd percentile · Army defense, 8th
Memphis’s explosive plays against Army’s defense
Memphis offense, 68th percentile · Army defense, 16th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Memphis leads the series 4-1
5 meetings since 1985 · Memphis has won the last 4
- 2002Memphis 38-10
- 2001Memphis 42-10
- 2000Memphis 26-16
- 1999Memphis 14-10
- 1985Army 49-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Memphis fans are in a better mood than Army fans (96th percentile vs 61st among FBS fanbases), even with Army favored.
- Model · 44%
- Line · 69%
- Memphis fans · 96th
- Army fans · 61st
Memphis favored by 6 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Memphis by 6, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The total rose 3 points.
Total: 56.5 → 59.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Memphis is worth +3.3 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 34th percentile.
82% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (40-9 home, 24-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 969 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.