The rest of the season
Three real tests left: UTSA 26%, North Texas 29%, Temple 61%
Win out 3% · expect 1.9 of 4 more wins
UAB's chance to win each game left, from our model: Charlotte 74%, Temple 61%, UTSA 26%, North Texas 29%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 51% to 67%, peaking at 78% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the American Athletic · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Ryder Burton 1,333 · Rushing Roderick Robinson II 450 · Receiving C.J. Smith 403 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow UAB:athletics siteAmerican AthleticXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #55 | #70 | +25.5✓ +6.5 | @Illinois | L 23-42 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Burton 219 · Rush Robinson II 59 · Rec Smith 57 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #55 | #162 | −9.5✗ −3.5 | UL Monroe | W 26-20 131 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Burton 115 · Rush Robinson II 114 · Rec Reid 65 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #58 | #34 | +7= | @Louisiana | L 14-21 131 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Burton 144 · Rush Robinson II 52 · Rec Mims 57 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #63 | #80 | +6.5✓ +10.5 | Navy | W 24-20 125 Firestorm | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Burton 174 · Rush McReynolds 71 · Rec Mims 76 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #64 | #228 | −30.5✗ −11.5 | Samford | W 33-14 124 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Burton 139 · Rush Robinson II 75 · Rec Smith 85 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #69 | #77 | +15.5✗ −9.5 | @Memphis | L 13-38 138 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Burton 131 · Rush Robinson II 65 · Rec Mims 79 |
| 7 | Oct 15 | #88 | #74 | +5.5✓ +18.5 | East Carolina | W 30-17 146 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Burton 262 · Rush Robinson II 33 · Rec Smith 119 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #79 | #64 | +7.5✗ −12.5 | @South Florida | L 10-30 116 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Burton 149 · Rush McReynolds 22 · Rec Smith 53 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #82 | #193 | −8.5 | Charlotte | 3:30 pm ET74% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #79 | #119 | @Temple | time TBA61% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UTSA | time TBA26% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @North Texas | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UAB, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UAB: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @South Florida | L 10-30 | 177 | 2 | 27:42 | -0.030 | 26.6% | 1.53 | Most explosive |
| Oct 15 | East Carolina | W 30-17 | 361 | 0 | 25:49 | +0.104 | 36.2% | 1.35 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @Memphis | L 13-38 | 310 | 3 | 33:42 | -0.321 | 36.1% | 1.06 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Samford | W 33-14 | 400 | 2 | 33:45 | +0.250 | 50.0% | 1.08 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 25 | Navy | W 24-20 | 290 | 1 | 25:38 | +0.180 | 38.6% | 1.50 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Louisiana | L 14-21 | 218 | 1 | 24:37 | -0.257 | 35.0% | 1.05 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | UL Monroe | W 26-20 | 381 | 2 | 31:53 | +0.109 | 50.7% | 1.01 | Best success rate |
| Sep 3 | @Illinois | L 23-42 | 413 | 1 | 41:03 | +0.139 | 43.0% | 1.25 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 319 | 1.5 | +0.022 | 39.5% | 1.23 | ||||
UAB's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I thought our defense played very well, definitely well enough to win the game. We held them to three points in the second half, which I think is pretty remarkable … I thought the guys played with really good heart, toughness, effort and speed, made adjustments during the game, and created a big turnover as well. We also had some good returns and certain aspects of special teams.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Mortensen inherits a 4-8 roster and 73% returning production — UAB’s third coach in five years faces the challenge of stabilizing a program defined by cycles of collapse and revival.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · UAB · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 5%; 5 wins 28%; 6 wins 43%; 7 wins 21%; 8 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Alex Mortensen took over as UAB's head coach, replacing Alex Mortensen. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire has left the front page. The roster and the recruiting pipeline are the measure now. Coverage has moved to other stories.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
UAB is the program its own university shut down — then brought back from the dead and watched win a conference title, a comeback story no other program in the sport can claim.
UAB fans never forget that their own university system, the one that answers to Tuscaloosa, tried to bury the program. Every season the Blazers exist at all, they say, is a win over the people who…
UAB is the AAC program whose 2014 football program shutdown + 2017 resurrection + Bill Clark 2018 Conference USA championship + Protective Stadium 2021 define what dropped-and-revived-football-program looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
60th percentile among FBS programs
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UAB · 2026