Charlotte at UAB
Charlotte (1‑7) at UAB (4‑4) — UAB is favored by 8.5. The model gives UAB a 74% shot. Charlotte’s offense is at the 14th percentile on explosive plays; UAB’s defense is at the 98th.
How they got here
Last three games
Charlotte · 1-7
Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 193rd now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Temple as a 17.5-point underdog.
L 41-43 vs The Citadel No. 210 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite
Last three games
UAB · 4-4
Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 13-point win over East Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 33-14 vs Samford No. 217 of 668 teams
won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Charlotte’s explosive plays against UAB, 84 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Charlotte’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense
Charlotte offense, 14th percentile · UAB defense, 98th
Charlotte’s EPA/play against UAB’s defense
Charlotte offense, 4th percentile · UAB defense, 68th
Charlotte’s passing EPA against UAB’s defense
Charlotte offense, 26th percentile · UAB defense, 94th
What’s at stake
Charlotte
- Charlotte is 3 games back in American Athletic with 3 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of Charlotte’s biggest of the season — a 111-spot gap in the power ratings.
UAB
- UAB needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 78% to get there with a win here, 35% with a loss.
- Alex Mortensen is ahead of Trent Dilfer’s year-2 pace (4-4 vs. 2-6) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2017 · Charlotte won the last meeting
- 2024Charlotte 29-27
- 2022UAB 34-20
- 2018UAB 28-7
- 2017Charlotte 25-24
Each line is UAB’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Charlotte
The chip · vs the national mediaNiner fans say the rest of the sport treats a program this young like it doesn't count — and they point to the biggest, fastest-growing city in the Carolinas and ask why a metro this size shouldn't eventually have a real football team.
What this game touches
The 1-11 first year of the Albin era. Tim Albin arrived from a MAC-champion Ohio program and went 1-11 (0-8 American) in his debut — a single win that laid bare how far the young 49ers still are from the bowl team they flashed in 2019.
UAB
The chip · vs big brotherUAB fans never forget that their own university system — the one that answers to Tuscaloosa — tried to bury the program. Every season the Blazers exist at all, they say, is a win over the people who wanted them gone.
Best players
Charlotte
- Gavin Willis (LB) · 65 tackles
- Kadin Schmitz (LB) · 55 tackles
- Collin Gill (DB) · 48 tackles
UAB
- Muaaz Byard (LB) · 78 tackles
- Jo Pierce (DB) · 69 tackles
- Ike Esonwune (LB) · 56 tackles
What to watch
The total has moved down 4.0 points since opening (51.5 → 47.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Charlotte fans are in a better mood than UAB fans (50th percentile vs 21st among FBS fanbases), even with UAB favored.
UAB favored by 8.5 · Total 47.5
UAB by 8.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UAB’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Protective Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 86
Charlotte at UAB · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · Protective Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Protective Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
UAB is worth +6.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 92nd percentile.
71% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-12 home, 16-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 367 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
UAB
- Wk 4Wvs Navy24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Samford33-14
- Wk 6Lat Memphis13-38
- Wk 7Wvs East Carolina30-17
- Wk 9Lat South Florida10-30
Charlotte
- Wk 4Lvs Louisiana7-34
- Wk 5Lvs Memphis8-59
- Wk 6Lat North Texas10-50
- Wk 7Wat Temple38-31
- Wk 9Lvs Tulane31-38
Power rating by week
UAB is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Charlotte.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −10 → −8.5 · Total: 51.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Charlotte 25, UAB 24Oct 21, 2017