UAB beats UL Monroe 26-20

Team pages: UL Monroe · UAB

UL Monroe0-220
UAB1-126Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala. · Crowd 21,153ESPN+

UAB beat UL Monroe 26-20.

We had UAB favored. It won.

Next: UL Monroe lost to SE Louisiana 38-35, Sat Sep 19

Next: UAB lost to Louisiana 21-14, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Burton 43-yd TD pass to Reid, UAB goes ahead 23-20 (Q4, 9:34). UAB went from 56% to 78% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UAB a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (UAB was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

UAB came back from 11 down, at one point just a 31% chance in the third quarter.

UL Monroe led by 11, was as high as 69% in the third quarter, and still lost.

FinalUAB 26-20 UL MonroeUAB wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfUABUL MonroeLowest 31%Won26-2012+19+22Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfUABUL MonroeLowest 31%Won26-2012Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfUL MonroeUABHigh 69%Lost20-2612−19−22Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfUL MonroeUABHigh 69%Lost20-2612Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:564th and 1Phillip 0-yd run, turnover on downsUAB 48% → 67% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 9:34Burton 43-yd TD pass to Reid, UAB goes ahead 23-20UAB 56% → 78% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:564th and 1Phillip 0-yd run, turnover on downsUL Monroe 52% → 33% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 9:34Burton 43-yd TD pass to Reid, UAB goes ahead 23-20UL Monroe 44% → 22% (−22)
UAB’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UAB -9.5), at 78% for UAB (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

UAB scored on 6 of its 9 drives; UL Monroe on 4 of its 10.

UAB’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UAB: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 43DownsUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 23Field goalQ2UL Monroe: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownUAB: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 76 yards out to 60PuntUL Monroe: Turned over on downs, from 33 yards out to 24DownsUAB: Interception, from 76 yards out to 86InterceptionUL Monroe: Field goal, from 18 yards out to 14Field goalQ3UL Monroe: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 6Field goalUAB: Field goal, from 83 yards out to 27Field goalUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59PuntUAB: Field goal, from 79 yards out to 16Field goalQ4UL Monroe: Punt, from 76 yards out to 81PuntUAB: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Interception, from 75 yards out to 36InterceptionUAB: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 24Field goalUL Monroe: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 46DownsUAB: End of game, from 54 yards out to 55End of game

From UL Monroe’s side

UL Monroe’s best moment: Burton intercepted by Fauntroy at the UAB 34, returned 16 yards (Q2 1:25). It lifted UL Monroe’s win chance by 19 points.

Too close to call on 53% of plays.

Box score

UAB 26, UL Monroe 20

UL Monroe covered +9.5 by 3.5. The total, 46, stayed under 53.5.

UL MonroeUABTotal yardsUL Monroe 257UAB 381257381Passing yardsUL Monroe 56UAB 11556115Rushing yardsUL Monroe 201UAB 266201266First downsUL Monroe 19UAB 231923TurnoversUL Monroe 1UAB 212Time of possessionUL Monroe 28:07UAB 31:5328:0731:53
Team totalsUL MonroeUAB
Total yards257381
Passing10 of 20, 56 yds8 of 16, 115 yds
Rushing43 for 201 yds52 for 266 yds
First downs1923
Third down3 of 1210 of 15
Fourth down1 of 30 of 1
Turnovers12
Penalties1 for 5 yds8 for 67 yds
Time of possession28:0731:53

UL Monroe leaders

  • Passing Austin Carlisle 10 of 19, 56 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Austin Carlisle 17 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Bryson Roland 19 for 86 yds
  • Receiving Marcellus Jackson 3 for 21 yds; Derrick Jameson 2 for 17 yds

UAB leaders

  • Passing Ryder Burton 8 of 16, 115 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Roderick Robinson II 21 for 114 yds; Braylon McReynolds 16 for 75 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving EJ Reid 4 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Lamar White 1 for 15 yds

Rain for part of the game

93° at kickoff · feels like 91° to 102° · 0.09 in of rain by radar over the stadium · wind 4 mph from the west-southwest, gusts to 16

A feels-like 102° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UAB favoredUL Monroe favored100%Win chanceUABRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 87°Thunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UAB favoredUL Monroe favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 87°Thunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 1:25 left3:45 p.m.
UL Monroe 14, UAB 10 · UAB 44% to win
no rain · wind 9 mph from the west-southwest · 86°
Burton intercepted by Fauntroy at the UAB 34, returned 16 yards

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Birmingham Muni airport, 4.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

UL Monroe · 3-9

Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 162nd now.

Three straight losses.

L 27-30 @ Louisiana #131 of 667

lost by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 27-30 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 73%.

L 14-31 @ Texas State #60 of 667

lost by 17 as a 20.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-31 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 13%.

L 14-26 vs South Alabama #117 of 667

lost by 12 as a 4.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-26 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 89%.

L 6-31 vs Old Dominion #65 of 667

lost by 25 as a 16.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 6-31 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 18%.

L 21-49 @ Southern Miss #86 of 667

lost by 28 as a 13.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 21-49 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 34%.

L 14-37 vs Troy #84 of 667

lost by 23 as a 5.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-37 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 40%, low under 1%, high 47%.

L 8-23 @ Coastal Carolina #135 of 667

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

UL Monroe lost 8-23 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 48%.

L 7-42 @ Northwestern #66 of 667

lost by 35 as a 13.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 7-42 at Northwestern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 36%.

W 28-16 vs Arkansas State #150 of 667

won by 12 as a 1.5-point favorite

UL Monroe won 28-16 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 58%, low 21%, high better than 99%.

W 31-25 @ UTEP #103 of 667

won by 6 as a 5.5-point underdog

UL Monroe won 31-25 at UTEP. Chance to win started at 32%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

L 0-73 @ AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667

lost by 73 as a 34.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 0-73 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 29-0 vs Saint Francis #215 of 667

won by 29 as a 30.5-point favorite

UL Monroe won 29-0 vs Saint Francis. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

UAB · 4-8

Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 55th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Tulsa as a 9.5-point underdog.

W 31-24 @ Tulsa #147 of 667

won by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog

UAB won 31-24 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 19%, low 9%, high 85%.

L 18-48 vs South FloridaTop 25 #23 of 667

lost by 30 as a 22.5-point underdog

UAB lost 18-48 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 24-53 vs North TexasTop 25 #39 of 667

lost by 29 as a 17.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-53 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 17%.

L 17-24 @ Rice #165 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

UAB lost 17-24 at Rice. Chance to win started at 39%, low under 1%, high 58%.

L 19-38 @ UConn #70 of 667

lost by 19 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 31-24 vs MemphisTop 25 #41 of 667

won by 7 as a 23.5-point underdog

UAB won 31-24 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 9%, low 7%, high 97%.

L 33-53 @ Florida Atlantic #94 of 667

lost by 20 as a 5.5-point underdog

UAB lost 33-53 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 13-31 vs Army #108 of 667

lost by 18 as a 6.5-point underdog

UAB lost 13-31 vs Army. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 51%.

L 24-56 @ TennesseeTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 32 as a 38.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-56 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 31-28 vs Akron #162 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

UAB won 31-28 vs Akron. Chance to win started at 93%, low 71%, high better than 99%.

L 24-38 @ NavyTop 25 #95 of 667

lost by 14 as a 22.5-point underdog

UAB lost 24-38 at Navy. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 18%.

W 52-42 vs Alabama State #144 of 667

won by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite

UAB won 52-42 vs Alabama State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 58%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

UAB

  • Wk 1Lat Illinois23-42

UL Monroe

  • Wk 1Lat Mississippi State13-62

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UL Monroe’s explosive plays against UAB, 76 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UL Monroe’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense

    76 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UL Monroe offense, 19th percentile · UAB defense, 95th

  2. UL Monroe’s passing EPA against UAB’s defense

    73 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UL Monroe offense, 11th percentile · UAB defense, 84th

  3. UL Monroe’s EPA/play against UAB’s defense

    54 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UL Monroe offense, 7th percentile · UAB defense, 61st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UL MonroeUAB
EPA/play, offense
UL Monroe · 7UAB · 16
EPA/play, defense
UL Monroe · 3UAB · 61
Success rate, offense
UL Monroe · 29UAB · 40
Success rate, defense
UL Monroe · 4UAB · 18
Explosive-play rate, offense
UL Monroe · 19UAB · 31
Explosive-play rate, defense
UL Monroe · 63UAB · 95
Rush EPA, offense
UL Monroe · 5UAB · 37
Rush EPA, defense
UL Monroe · 3UAB · 27
Pass EPA, offense
UL Monroe · 11UAB · 6
Pass EPA, defense
UL Monroe · 5UAB · 84

The series

UL Monroe leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1998 · UL Monroe won the last meeting

  • 2024UL Monroe 32-6UAB lost 6-32 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 86%.
  • 1999UAB 47-0
  • 1998UL Monroe 20-14

Each line is UAB’s chance to win through that meeting. UAB is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UAB’s chances here.

50-50Model · 90%Line · 78%UL MonroeUAB

UAB favored by 9.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

UAB by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward UAB.

opened −7.5now −9.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 54.5now 53.5

Spread: −7.5 → −9.5 · Total: 54.5 → 53.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 95° at kickoff.

UL Monroe at UAB · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Legion Field, Birmingham

  • 95°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 43weather score, Harsh
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Legion Field that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 64, against 43 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 11 am: 55, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 43, Harsh (this game)
  • 3:15 pm: 44, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 56, Rough
  • 6:45 pm: 64, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

UAB is worth +6.7 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.

71% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (29-12 home, 16-36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 312 miles to get here.

Where next