FBS Independents UConn

Head coach Jason Candle · 1st season · 4-4 at UConn

Record4-4through 8 games
Bowl2 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextvs North CarolinaSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: James Madison 32%, North Carolina 52%, Wyoming 58%

Win out 8% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins

UConn's chance to win each game left, from our model: North Carolina 52%, James Madison 32%, Old Dominion 84%, Wyoming 58%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 86% to 81%, peaking at 92% before a game

86%63%L90%W82%L70%L84%W92%W81%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

LeadersPassing Kalieb Osborne 1,857 · Rushing Cyncir Bowers 571 · Receiving Shamar Porter 308 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#83 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #67 (+0.7) · FPI #92
The marketNorth Carolina by 7Betting line vs North Carolina · our model 52% UConn

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow UConn:athletics siteXInstagramstudent paper

Schedule and results

UConn · 2026 schedule and results4-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #128 to #92
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#128#200−21.5✓ +27.5LafayetteW 56-7 145UConn won 56-7 vs Lafayette. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Osborne 265 · Rush Osborne 90 · Rec Brown 92
2Sep 12#122#73+11.5✗ −12.5MarylandL 14-38 130UConn lost 14-38 vs Maryland. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 50%.1-10-0Pass Osborne 156 · Rush Osborne 30 · Rec Porter 62
3Sep 19#116#59−3.5✓ +24.5@Southern MissW 48-20 149UConn won 48-20 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 53%, low 51%, high better than 99%.2-10-0Pass Osborne 214 · Rush Bowers 84 · Rec Porter 50
4Sep 26#109#85+2.5✗ −0.5@Miami (OH)L 21-24 123UConn lost 21-24 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 42%, low 8%, high 87%.2-20-0Pass Osborne 215 · Rush Osborne 84 · Rec Porter 61
5Oct 3#103#127+6.5✓ +5.5SyracuseL 41-42 159UConn lost 41-42 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 39%, low under 1%, high 78%.2-30-0Pass Osborne 314 · Rush Bowers 163 · Rec Treadway 57
6Oct 10#108#81+3.5✓ +17.5@TempleW 34-20 123UConn won 34-20 at Temple. Chance to win started at 32%, low 27%, high better than 99%. Roaring3-30-0Pass Osborne 257 · Rush Cornist 114 · Rec Treadway 63
7Bye week
8Oct 23#100#146−12.5✓ +6.5MassachusettsW 35-16 131UConn won 35-16 vs Massachusetts. Chance to win started at 85%, low 75%, high better than 99%.4-30-0Pass Osborne 173 · Rush Bowers 131 · Rec Willoughby 65
9Oct 31#92#77+2.5✗ −6.5@Air ForceL 26-35 131UConn lost 26-35 at Air Force. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 36%.4-40-0Pass Osborne 263 · Rush Christian 68 · Rec Godavitarne 55
10Nov 7#84#61+7North Carolina12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network52% to win
11Nov 14#87#50James Madison12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network32% to win
12Nov 21Old Dominion3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network84% to win
13Nov 28@Wyomingtime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for UConn, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for UConn: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Air ForceL 26-35368018:06+0.28850.9%1.36
Oct 23MassachusettsW 35-16438034:15+0.29242.4%1.39
Oct 10@TempleW 34-20505028:58+0.32451.6%1.32Best success rate
Oct 3SyracuseL 41-42499224:33+0.12044.2%1.38One-score loss
Sep 26@Miami (OH)L 21-24377227:27+0.10938.3%1.54One-score loss
Sep 19@Southern MissW 48-20436034:04+0.23849.3%1.15Best defensive stand
Sep 12MarylandL 14-38223124:29-0.09130.2%1.45Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5LafayetteW 56-7671231:42+0.57351.4%1.59Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)4400.9+0.23244.8%1.40

UConn's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

Ahead

The forecast
Offense strongExplosive, big-playDefense solid

What fans said

What fans said

L 26-35 at Air Force

UConn fans
r/CFB
“I've been watching UConn football since 2007 and I never thought I'd ever hear anyone call my offense "explosive”
4d ago
r/CFB
“Not everyday you get beat by a team that never threw the ball once.”
3d ago

W 35-16 vs Massachusetts

UConn fans
r/CFB
“For context, a UMass booster group created the Southwick Jug in 2024, to give the UConn-UMass rivalry game a formal trophy. However, UMass attempted to cut…”
1w ago
r/CFB
“what happened to you guys? it's just weird”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: North Carolinavs North Carolina · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

UConn has won two of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5
Some of the discipline things that we have to continue to clean up, and we got to get to work on that
Head Coach Jason Candle · Dailycampus2 days after UConn's 2026 game against Syracuse
1 storyline developing

What UConn’s coaching hire is really about

The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

Coachingthis cyclenew

Jason Candle inherits a 9-4 program and 96% QB production returning, but UConn's identity as a basketball school still hangs over whether football can be more than a footnote.

What happenedJason Candle took over as UConn's head coach, replacing Gordon Sammis.
The contextreplaces 4-year head coach Jim Mora (27-23)

Statusfront page

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedUConn moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
Died downUConn's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · UConn · 2026

UConn’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 90% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 2%; 5 wins 18%; 6 wins 40%; 7 wins 32%; 8 wins 8%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · UConn · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Jason Candle at UConn.

Jason Candle took over as UConn's head coach, replacing Gordon Sammis. It is replaces 4-year head coach Jim Mora (27-23). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.

Developing3 new this week
todayUConn football coach Jason Candle views Air Force loss ‘a little bit differently’ than most · fox61.com
2 days agoWhy Jason Candle views UConn’s defensive effort at Air Force differently than most · Hartford Courant
6 days agoUConn football’s Shamar Porter shows the buy-in Jason Candle needs in Year 1 · Norwich Bulletin
2 weeks agoWin total still unmoved 13d after "UConn assistant coach arrested after crash"
2 weeks agoWin total still unmoved 12d after "UConn assistant coach arrested after crash"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Jason Candle Head coach
“UConn football coach Jason Candle views Air Force loss ‘a little bit differently’ than most” — fox61.com · 2026-11-04
Gordon Sammis Out
Jason Candle Returns
“Game Day: UConn Football Head Coach Jason Candle Returns to Home State” — roundtable.io · 2026-09-26
Javon Brown
“Jason Candle: UConn receiver Javon Brown back on campus after hit” — ctinsider.com · 2026-10-05
Our read
Jason Candle inherits a 9-4 program and 96% QB production returning, but UConn's identity as a basketball school still hangs over whether football can be more than a footnote.
Source of record: Jason Candle took over as UConn's head coach, replacing Gordon Sammis — replaces 4-year head coach Jim Mora (27-23).
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “UConn football sends message with 56-7 evisceration of…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“UConn football sends message with 56-7 evisceration of Lafayette in Jason Candle’s debut”
fox61.com · Sep 5 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“UConn football coach Jason Candle details win over UMass”
Norwich Bulletin · Oct 24 · read ↗
“UConn football coach Jason Candle previews matchup with Air Force”
Norwich Bulletin · Oct 26 · read ↗
“UConn football’s Shamar Porter shows the buy-in Jason Candle needs in Year 1”
Norwich Bulletin · Oct 29 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards2% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest.›

This event was in 43 of 2480 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"We have a long way to go. Having watched other games and other teams—just from the eye test—we seem to be lacking in just about every area required to be a real contender. We're no"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Candle is a mad man with the 4th downs, he went for it on 4th and 9 with less than 2 minutes in a tie game last week"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes9 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Rhode Island goes largely unrecruited, and UConn commit Jalen Moseley's speed markers support it”
247Sports · Nov 3 · read ↗
“Tennessee high school football passing yardage record broken by UConn commit”
AOL.com · Oct 17 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 60 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel60even gamescombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 2 in the FBS Independents
Heart rate0-2some dramain one-score games (2 of 8)1st most one-score games of 2 in the FBS Independents
Margin+9.1competitiveavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 2 in the FBS Independents
Tempo64average paceoffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 2 in the FBS Independents
Big plays1.40some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 2 in the FBS Independents
Home crowd33,578avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 2 in the FBS Independents

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among FBS Independents teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind·Written June 2026

UConn is the basketball blue-blood deciding, in public, what its football chapter will be — and it just played the best season it has ever had, then watched the coach who built it walk out the door.

Standard GapFifteen basketball national championships across the men's and women's…

UConn fans are tired of the 'why is this a football school' shrug. They'll tell you the program just won nine games as a conference-less independent that has to schedule everyone, and that the…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

UConn · Game-day weather

Typical at Pratt & Whitney Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 90 to 93

  • noon: 93, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

UConn is a basketball school that is deciding, in public, what its football chapter will be.

Offense: StrongStyle: Explosive, big-playDefense: Solid
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the UConn story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Jason Candle
  • 2025Gordon Sammis departs (interim)0-1
  • 2025Jim Mora departs27-23
  • 2025Hired Gordon Sammis (interim)

Roster and recruiting

Roster2% of production back, talent #73

Roster reload: UConn

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production2%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#73 nationally247 composite 652.6
Portal Additions53Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses46Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#110Depth class
WRin 9 - Emanuel Ross3.60out 7 - Shamar Porter4.28Need Filled
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 4 - Melvin Hills III3.50out 7 - Stephon Wright4.28Starter Risk
current room: 270 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Basewins the gap play after play
Transferred in
OTin 4 - Nathan Pahanich3.50out 7 - Ben Murawski3.70Starter Risk
EDGEin 7 - Joshua Mickens3.60out 3 - Donovan Branch3.49Need Filled
Speed Rusherwins the corner before the tackle can set
Former four-star
CBin 5 - Moussa Kane3.60out 5 - Osiris Gilbert3.50Upgrade
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Homegrown
RBin 4 - Trey Cornist3.49out 5 - Cam Edwards3.60Downgrade
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Speed Merchanthits the crease and outruns the angle
Third program
Next man up
WR · departedSkyler Bell3★ · Rd 4, Pk 25
NowChris Parker3★ · SR
Projected starter
Full roster (117 players)
UNKJalen Brown, Raymond Liggins III, Rodarion Tellez, Tyrique Harris
CBMoussa Kane
DBAxavier Bridges-Brooks, Braedyn Moore, CJ Bell Jr., Carter Boskovich, Cason Dash, Elijah Whitaker, Grant Blascak, Jalil Martin, Jayden Davis, Jayden Price, Kylish Hicks, Martece Smith, Renick Dorilas, Saxton Suchanic, Shmar Akande, Steve Miller, Tracy Revels, Tyler Marescot, Tyler McKinstry, Zion Paret
DEChamberlain Campbell, Joshua Mickens, Odera Orizu
DLAnas Luqman, Andrew Laurich, Avery Dunn, Eddie Dresch, Matt Hoffman, Melvin Hills III, Tahjae Mullix
DTDJ Pouncy, Desmond Aladuge, Esean Carter
EDGEMakijah Latiker, Mateo Kipke, Shamar Riser-Pressley
IOLMason Howard
KJack O'Connor
LBCharles Johnson, Charlie O'Connor, Ethan Hogg, Hayden Pegg, James Tilus, Jayden Jones, John Lista, K'Von Sherman, Lewenski Ydore, Luke Murphy, Rickey Williams, Terris Dudley, Will Lewis, Zakaih Saez
LSDavid LaGanga, Tashi Crofut, Zach Christinat
OLBen Mulholland, Christian Richter, Christos Zigoumis, Deron McLaughlin, Dominic Rivera, Finn Wilkins, Fred Johnson, Hannes Hammer, Hill Greenlee, Isiah Switzer, Joe McGann, Michael Marini, Nate Benedict, Nathan Pahanich, Owen Winder, Raphael Greene-Nyarko, Tamarus Walker, Terrence Moore, Ty Chan
PSpencer Sullins, Tommy Warner
PKMike Baker
QBBo Polston, Jake Merklinger, Kalieb Osborne, Tucker McDonald, Tyler Smith
RBCyncir Bowers, Dashun Reeder, Jaden Hart, Kenji Christian, Shawn Simeon, Soren Rief, Trey Cornist
TEAlex Godavitarne, Clemens Richter, Jackson Mangham, Matt Ragan, Mike Burton, Troy Walson, Xavier Watson
WRCam Abshire, Daniel Rose, Drew Kron, Emanuel Ross, Javon Brown, Jediyah Willoughby, Johnny Gingeruha, Julian Allen, Kamren Flowers, Ky Wilson, Logan Barnes, Logan Burbank, Ryder Treadway, Shamar Porter, Teddy Williams, Zy'marion Lang
Top commits

Top 2 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Cooper Newman
QB · Sevierville, TN
#1192 national
★★★☆☆
JD Brown
QB · Santa Rosa Beach, FL
#1636 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Army Defeats UConn 41-16
677 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Postgame Thread] UConn Defeats UMass 35-16
401 upvotes · Oct 2026
[Postgame Thread] UConn Defeats FAU 48-45
155 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
82nd
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
5.5
Sportsbook win total
(28th among FBS)
Fans 54pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow UConn

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site