Miami (OH) beats UConn 24-21

Team pages: UConn · Miami (OH)

UConn2-221
Miami (OH)2-224Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio · Crowd 18,180ESPN+

Miami (OH) beat UConn 24-21.

We had Miami (OH) favored. It won.

Next: UConn lost to Syracuse 42-41, Sat Oct 3

Next: Miami (OH) lost to Bowling Green 24-20, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

The turning point: McComb 11-yd TD pass to Smith, Miami (OH) goes ahead 20-14 (Q3, 3:48). Miami (OH) went from 70% to 92% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami (OH) a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami (OH) was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

Miami (OH) came back from 14 down, at one point just a 13% chance in the second quarter.

UConn led by 14, was as high as 87% in the second quarter, and still lost.

21 unansweredMiami (OH) · Q3 3:48
FinalMiami (OH) 24-21 UConnMiami (OH) wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfMiami (OH)UConnLowest 13%Won24-2112+22−18Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfMiami (OH)UConnLowest 13%Won24-2112Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfUConnMiami (OH)High 87%Lost21-2412−22+18Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfUConnMiami (OH)High 87%Lost21-2412Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 3:48McComb 11-yd TD pass to Smith, Miami (OH) goes ahead 20-14Miami (OH) 70% → 92% (+22)
  2. 2Q3 0:49Bowers 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20Miami (OH) 76% → 58% (−18)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 3:48McComb 11-yd TD pass to Smith, Miami (OH) goes ahead 20-14UConn 30% → 8% (−22)
  2. 2Q3 0:49Bowers 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20UConn 24% → 42% (+18)
Miami (OH)’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Miami (OH) -2.5), at 58% for Miami (OH) (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Miami (OH) scored on 5 of its 11 drives; UConn on 3 of its 11.

Miami (OH)’s drives are teal, UConn’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1UConn: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): Punt, from 65 yards out to 61PuntUConn: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 27DownsQ2UConn: Fumble, from 73 yards out to 65FumbleUConn: Punt, from 70 yards out to 42PuntMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownUConn: Punt, from 92 yards out to 60PuntMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownUConn: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 30Missed FGQ3Miami (OH): Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Missed FGUConn: Punt, from 74 yards out to 65PuntMiami (OH): Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownUConn: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownMiami (OH): Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 22Missed FGQ4UConn: Punt, from 78 yards out to 80PuntMiami (OH): Punt, from 52 yards out to 44PuntUConn: Interception, from 80 yards out to 80InterceptionMiami (OH): Field goal, from 43 yards out to 15Field goalUConn: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 38DownsMiami (OH): Uncategorized, from 62 yards out to 63Uncategorized

From UConn’s side

UConn’s best moment: Bowers 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20 (Q3 0:49). It lifted UConn’s win chance by 18 points.

The winner fell to 13%.

Box score

Miami (OH) 24, UConn 21

Miami (OH) covered −2.5 by 0.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.

UConnMiami (OH)Total yardsUConn 377Miami (OH) 414377414Passing yardsUConn 215Miami (OH) 325215325Rushing yardsUConn 162Miami (OH) 8916289First downsUConn 17Miami (OH) 201720TurnoversUConn 2Miami (OH) 121Time of possessionUConn 27:27Miami (OH) 32:3327:2732:33
Team totalsUConnMiami (OH)
Total yards377414
Passing17 of 32, 215 yds22 of 32, 325 yds
Rushing30 for 162 yds29 for 89 yds
First downs1720
Third down6 of 145 of 13
Fourth down1 of 22 of 3
Turnovers21
Penalties6 for 60 yds2 for 30 yds
Time of possession27:2732:33

UConn leaders

  • Passing Kalieb Osborne 17 of 32, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kalieb Osborne 13 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Cyncir Bowers 7 for 48 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Shamar Porter 2 for 61 yds; Javon Brown 4 for 44 yds, 1 TD

Miami (OH) leaders

  • Passing David McComb 19 of 29, 312 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing David McComb 3 for 33 yds, 1 TD; Rodney Nelson 12 for 29 yds
  • Receiving Brendan Loftus 3 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Braylon Isom 4 for 66 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Game-day temperatures at Yager Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Miami (OH) favoredUConn favored100%Win chanceMiami (OH)Raininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Miami (OH) favoredUConn favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 14:53 left5:19 p.m.
UConn 14, Miami (OH) 14 · Miami (OH) 61% to win
no rain · 74°
McComb 14-yd pass to Billups-Williams

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Oxford airport, 3.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UConn · 2-1

Rated 128th in our preseason ratings, 109th now, up 19 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 48-20 @ Southern Miss #77 of 668

won by 28 as a 3.5-point favorite

UConn won 48-20 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 53%, low 51%, high better than 99%.

L 14-38 vs Maryland #65 of 668

lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog

UConn lost 14-38 vs Maryland. Chance to win started at 28%, low under 1%, high 50%.

W 56-7 vs Lafayette #215 of 668

won by 49 as a 21.5-point favorite

UConn won 56-7 vs Lafayette. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Miami (OH) · 1-2

Rated 78th in our preseason ratings, 85th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 31-35 @ Cincinnati #101 of 668

lost by 4 as a 14.5-point underdog

Miami (OH) lost 31-35 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 29%, low 1%, high 97%.

W 45-7 vs Holy Cross #228 of 668

won by 38 as a 30.5-point favorite

Miami (OH) won 45-7 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

L 14-59 @ PittsburghTop 25 #45 of 668

lost by 45 as a 16.5-point underdog

Miami (OH) lost 14-59 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 12%.

Week by week

Miami (OH)

Wk 1: L 14-59 at Pittsburgh▼45PittsburghWk 2: W 45-7 vs Holy Cross▲38Holy CrossWk 3: L 31-35 at Cincinnati▼4Cincinnati
  • Wk 1Lat Pittsburgh14-59
  • Wk 2Wvs Holy Cross45-7
  • Wk 3Lat Cincinnati31-35

UConn

Wk 1: W 56-7 vs Lafayette▲49LafayetteWk 2: L 14-38 vs Maryland▼24MarylandWk 3: W 48-20 at Southern Miss▲28Southern Miss
  • Wk 1Wvs Lafayette56-7
  • Wk 2Lvs Maryland14-38
  • Wk 3Wat Southern Miss48-20

Power rating by week

Miami (OH) is rated 2.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-0-3-6Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Miami (OH)UConn

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UConn’s explosive plays against Miami (OH), 62 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UConn’s explosive plays against Miami (OH)’s defense

    62 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 91st percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 29th

  2. UConn’s passing EPA against Miami (OH)’s defense

    44 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 69th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 25th

  3. UConn’s EPA/play against Miami (OH)’s defense

    29 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UConn offense, 70th percentile · Miami (OH) defense, 41st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UConnMiami (OH)
EPA/play, offense
UConn · 70Miami (OH) · 58
EPA/play, defense
UConn · 50Miami (OH) · 41
Success rate, offense
UConn · 56Miami (OH) · 32
Success rate, defense
UConn · 32Miami (OH) · 34
Explosive-play rate, offense
UConn · 91Miami (OH) · 94
Explosive-play rate, defense
UConn · 67Miami (OH) · 29
Rush EPA, offense
UConn · 79Miami (OH) · 66
Rush EPA, defense
UConn · 66Miami (OH) · 74
Pass EPA, offense
UConn · 69Miami (OH) · 68
Pass EPA, defense
UConn · 30Miami (OH) · 25

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami (OH) fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (81st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 57% · Line 58%Miami (OH) fans…UConn fans · 86thUConnMiami (OH)

Miami (OH) favored by 2.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Miami (OH) by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward UConn.

opened −3now −2.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 50.5now 52.5

Spread: −3 → −2.5 · Total: 50.5 → 52.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.

UConn at Miami (OH) · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Yager Stadium, Oxford

  • 73°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 97weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Yager Stadium that day, a 5 pm, 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 97 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 99, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 96, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 97, Comfortable (this game)
  • 4 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 5 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Miami (OH) is worth +6.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.

73% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (27-10 home, 23-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 653 miles to get here.

Where next