Pittsburgh

2-0

ACC · Pat Narduzzi, year 12 (82-61) · Acrisure Stadium · 68,400 · 44,927 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#49 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #32 (+10.1) · FPI #29
The marketPittsburgh by 10vs Syracuse · our model 81% Pittsburgh · a number, not a pick

LastW 12–7 vs UCF · Sat Sep 12 · Braylan Lovelace 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 6 tackles

Nextvs Syracuse · Thu Sep 17 · 7:30 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh by 10 · series 45-33-3, won the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Pittsburgh · 2026 schedule & results2-0
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#47#78-16.5Miami (OH)W 59–14 1331-00-0
2Sep 12#46#103-7.5UCFW 12–7 1252-00-0
3Sep 17#49#127-10Syracuse
4Sep 26#49#239Bucknell
5Oct 2@Virginia Tech
6Oct 10North Carolina
7Oct 17@Boston College
8Oct 24@Miami
9Oct 31Georgia Tech
11Nov 14Florida State
12Nov 21@Louisville
13Nov 28@California
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 12UCFW 12–7315036:12-0.00536.1%105.8%
Sep 5Miami (OH)W 59–14646033:56+0.42754.5%133.8%
Season average (2 games)4800.0+0.21145.3%119.8%
Verdict Begins·Live

Pittsburgh is the old power the sport keeps forgetting — a 1976 national champion that the country talks about like it vanished — and in 2025 an 18-year-old freshman named Mason Heintschel reminded everyone the Panthers are still in the room.

Title DroughtSince 1976 · 50 yrs

The fanbase has heard the program written off as an afterthought for two decades and bristles every time, because Pitt was a national power before half the programs dismissing it existed. They don't w…

moderate signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Weeks 1–22-0, all at homeW 59–14 vs Miami (OH) · Sat Sep 5
Ahead
Sat Oct 24AP #5 Miamiat Miami · on the road
Sat Nov 21AP #23 Louisvilleat Louisville · on the road

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season

Game feel58shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 17 in the ACC
Heart rate1-3some dramain one-score games (4 of 13)12th most one-score games of 17 in the ACC
Margin+8.9competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 17 in the ACC
Tempo68average paceoffensive plays / game7th fastest of 17 in the ACC
Big plays1.34some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)6th most explosive of 17 in the ACC
Home crowd51,845avg attendance6th biggest crowds of 17 in the ACC

✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Pittsburgh has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
It’s everything for the guys to have that trust to name me a captain and to be a leader of this team
Heintschel · The Pitt News4 days before Pittsburgh's 2026 opener
The forecast

Next Sep 17

vs Syracuse · at home

Season line8.0 winsover -105
SolidPass-first, spreadExplosive, big-play

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total2 booksO/U 8
CFP championship#35 in field+25000
ACC title#5 in market+2000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14

Pittsburgh · the story right now 5 storylines developing

What Pittsburgh's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Pittsburgh jumped 14 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and 2021 ACC title suggest momentum, but the talent rank at #56 raises questions about sustaining this rise under Pat Narduzzi.

what happenedPittsburgh enters 2026 rated No. 36 in 2025 SP+ (+8.4), up 14 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Cataurus Hicks is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Justin Holmes is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Raphael Williams is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew

Pittsburgh jumped 14 spots in SP+ — Pat Narduzzi’s 6th season opens with an 8-5 record and #24 AP rank, but the uneasy fanbase demands more than a reminder.

what happenedPittsburgh enters 2025 rated No. 36 in SP+ (+8.4), up 14 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downPittsburgh's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Pittsburgh · 2026

Pittsburgh's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.

Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Pittsburgh · Season outlook Confidence

Pittsburgh enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.

Pittsburgh enters 2026 rated No. 36 in 2025 SP+ (+8.4), up 14 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 17% volume · negative overall
The saga so far4 weeks old
last weekMason Heintschel: 453 yds · 7 TD vs Miami (OH)
2 weeks agoPitt unveils first two-deep depth chart — Reported
4 weeks agoday 1 of move in week and i’ve already seen the best flyer in the history of flyers — r/Pitt
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Pittsburgh jumped 14 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and 2021 ACC title suggest momentum, but the talent rank at #56 raises questions about sustaining this rise under Pat Narduzzi.
Source of record: Pittsburgh enters 2026 rated No. 36 in 2025 SP+ (+8.4), up 14 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
📣Believers7 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.

“Woodland Hills removes Brian Tarrant as football coach - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette”
news · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“T.J. Watt’s dominant day helps the Steelers begin the Mike McCarthy era with a win - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette”
news · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Steelers Give Mike McCarthy Game Ball after Emotional Win in Pittsburgh Debut”
Steelers Now · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards17% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (78%).

This event was in 269 of 1569 board posts (17%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"I am currently a Sophomore in my Fall semester and I'm planning on applying for Pitt's Rehab Science program. I've heard conflicting answers about how difficult admissions are, so"
r/Pitt ~ fan take
"I had recently finished my first year of college as a biology major at cc. I am planning to transfer to Pitt Dietrich for next fall. It is my dream school but I’m scared I won’t ge"
r/Pitt ~ fan take

Board health this week (281 posts): 18% positive · 42% neutral · 40% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Rival pulse

West Virginia
Uneasy
-6
Backyard Brawl
Face-off →
Penn State
Uneasy
-9
Keystone Classic

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Pittsburgh is the program with nine national titles in football history and a 2021 ACC championship that reminded the country it's still here.

Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadTempo: Explosive, big-play
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 15Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 22.Week 14 · Lost 7-38 at home to Miamiwas No. 24
  • 2025 · Wk 14Entered the AP Top 25The committee brought them in too, at No. 22.Week 13 · Won 42-28 at Georgia Techat No. 24
  • 2025 · Wk 13Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 22.Week 12 · Lost 15-37 at home to Notre Damewas No. 23
  • 2025 · Wk 12Entered the AP Top 25at No. 23
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Pittsburgh

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15
Returning Production40%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#64 nationally247 composite 675.0
Portal Additions16Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#44Development class
IOLin 1 - Keylen Davis3.50out 3 - Caleb Holmes3.60Starter Risk
current room: 309 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Jeremiah Warren3.60out 2 - Francis Brewu4.50Even
current room: 260 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2024 profilewins his gap play after play
CBin 2 - Raion Strader3.70out 2 - Shawn Lee Jr.4.00Even
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Ball Hawk2024 profilereads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away
RBin 1 - La'Vell Wright3.50out 2 - Derrick Davis Jr.4.28Downgrade
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Power Back2025 profilewears you down at the goal line
Third program
WRin 1 - Malik Knight3.30out 2 - Kenny Johnson3.60Downgrade
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 2 - Carson Kent3.70out 1 - Malachi Thomas3.60Upgrade
current room: 241 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TE2024 profileshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Full roster (112 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Pittsburgh

2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Mason Heintschel: 453 yds · 7 TD vs Miami (OH)

    Top 0.1% passing TDs game since 2021. vs Miami (OH) (FBS) W 59-14.

    Sep 5
  2. News

    Pitt unveils first two-deep depth chart

    First two-deep out and the IOL pressure is real — one NFL departure plus a coordinator overhaul means Narduzzi's offensive identity is still being stress-tested before week one.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-7.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: -18.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
IOL
-7.2
starter risk
RB
-4.4
WR
-3.7
S
-3.5
low confidence
TE
+3.5
EDGE
-3.4
low confidence
LB
+2.7
P
+2.0
low confidence
QB
-1.3
K
-1.2
DL
-1.0
LS
-1.0
CB
-0.2
OT
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Damon Ferguson Jr.
RB · Baltimore, MD
#203 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Corey Dailey
QB · Seguin, TX
#417 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Reston Lehman
LB · Canonsburg, PA
#457 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

21
FL · 5PA · 4TX · 4GA · 2OH · 2VA · 2MD · 1MI · 1

FL leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 8 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

88 signees across 16 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMI2NYMA1ORNVWYSDIAILIN1OH9PA17NJ3CTCA3UTCONEMOKYWVVA7MD3DERIAZNMKSARTN1NCSCDC1OKLA1MSALGA8AKHITX5FL25
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Pittsburgh player grew up 317 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

65th-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%153–821 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi20%22 of 110 players
Farthest2,147 miJaeden Moore · Hanford, CA
Closest1 miRaion Strader · Pittsburgh, PA

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Acrisure Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 110 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns PA · 2026 roster

31% of the Pittsburgh roster grew up in PA.

34 of 111 players, drawn from 23 states in all. That is the 69th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

Signing day undersells it: only 19% of the last 4 classes were from PA, but walk-ons and transfers pull the roster 11 points back toward home.

PA · 34FL · 22GA · 11OH · 8VA · 6MI · 5TX · 5MD · 3+15 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

111 players across 23 states. Biggest pull outside PA: FL (22).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMI5NY2MA1ORNVWYSDIAIL1IN1OH8PA34NJ2CTCA1UTCONEMOKY1WVVA6MD3DERIAZ1NMKSAR1TN1NC1SCDC1OKLA1MS1AL1GA11AKHITX5FL22
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 1 listed player fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and is excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] ECU Defeats Pittsburgh 23-17
1,345 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Game Thread] Military Bowl: ECU vs. Pittsburgh (11:00 AM ET)
131 upvotes · Dec 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 42% never transferred. C
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

20th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
20th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
8
Vegas O/U wins
(80th among FBS)
Market 60pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

Just one AP voter, David Briggs (Toledo Blade), has them ranked — at #25. The other 67 voters left them off entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The flags have favored them: 18 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 13 committed, 26 yards to the good.

102 penalty yards committed vs. 128 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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