The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 16 Louisville 26%, Florida State 64%
Win out 14% · expect 1.7 of 3 more wins
Pittsburgh's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida State 64%, Louisville 26%, California 84%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing8th in the ACC · 3-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Mason Heintschel 1,304 · Rushing Damon Ferguson Jr. 662 · Receiving Cataurus Hicks 698 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Pittsburgh:athletics siteACCX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #47 | #78 | −16.5✓ +28.5 | Miami (OH) | W 59-14 133 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Heintschel 453 · Rush Cook 50 · Rec Hicks 114 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #45 | #103 | −7.5✗ −2.5 | UCF | W 12-7 125 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Heintschel 212 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 59 · Rec Hicks 64 |
| 3 | Sep 17 | #48 | #127 | −10.5✓ +3.5 | Syracuse | W 27-13 130 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Heintschel 123 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 102 · Rec Kent 63 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #51 | #235 | −54.5✓ +4.5 | Bucknell | W 59-0 135 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Heintschel 403 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 56 · Rec Robinson 78 |
| 5 | Oct 2 | #42 | #45 | +1.5✓ +3.5 | @Virginia Tech | W 35-33 134 Loud | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Heintschel 113 · Rush Turner 65 · Rec Hicks 63 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #37 | #88 | −3.5✗ −7.5 | North Carolina | L 17-21 136 Loud | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Geriner 219 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 49 · Rec Knight 62 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #40 | #123 | −6.5✗ −12.5 | @Boston College | L 21-27 132 | 5-2 | 2-2 | Pass Dailey 193 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 119 · Rec Hicks 135 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #48 | #5 | +20.5✗ −8.5 | @Miami | L 23-52 137 | 5-3 | 2-3 | Pass Geriner 268 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 39 · Rec Hicks 149 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #50 | #113 | −9.5✓ +13.5 | Georgia Tech | W 34-11 163 | 6-3 | 3-3 | Pass Geriner 180 · Rush Ferguson Jr. 185 · Rec Lee 56 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 13 | #49 | #70 | Florida State | 7 pm ET · ESPN64% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Louisville | time TBA26% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @California | time TBA84% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Pittsburgh, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Pittsburgh: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Georgia Tech | W 34-11 | 461 | 3 | 34:21 | -0.015 | 41.6% | 0.96 | |
| Oct 24 | @Miami | L 23-52 | 403 | 1 | 23:40 | +0.228 | 40.0% | 1.70 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @Boston College | L 21-27 | 392 | 3 | 28:22 | +0.080 | 48.5% | 0.70 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | North Carolina | L 17-21 | 369 | 2 | 36:32 | -0.145 | 40.7% | 0.91 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 2 | @Virginia Tech | W 35-33 | 295 | 0 | 28:38 | +0.075 | 29.0% | 1.65 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Bucknell | W 59-0 | 766 | 1 | 32:34 | +0.583 | 59.0% | 1.31 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 17 | Syracuse | W 27-13 | 368 | 1 | 26:48 | +0.135 | 46.7% | 1.19 | |
| Sep 12 | UCF | W 12-7 | 315 | 0 | 36:12 | -0.044 | 36.1% | 1.06 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | Miami (OH) | W 59-14 | 646 | 0 | 33:56 | +0.427 | 54.5% | 1.34 | Blowout win |
| Season average (9 games) | 446 | 1.2 | +0.147 | 44.0% | 1.20 | ||||
Pittsburgh's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
You think about how you want to do the very best work you can possibly do, and the kind of resources and investment that it takes to do that, and you set a target that is a reachable, ambitious goal, and that’s how we came up with our total numbers
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Pittsburgh · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 4%; 7 wins 31%; 8 wins 50%; 9 wins 14%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-3
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Pittsburgh is the old power the sport keeps forgetting — a 1976 national champion that the country talks about like it vanished — and in 2025 an 18-year-old freshman named Mason Heintschel reminded everyone the Panthers are still in the room.
The fanbase has heard the program written off as an afterthought for two decades and bristles every time, because Pitt was a national power before half the programs dismissing it existed. They don't…
Pittsburgh · Game-day weather
Typical at Acrisure Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Pittsburgh is the program with nine national titles in football history and a 2021 ACC championship that reminded the country it's still here.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
26th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Pittsburgh · 2026