Next game: vs Florida State
Florida State’s best edge on Pittsburgh is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Pittsburgh offense against Florida State defense
Florida State offense against Pittsburgh defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.34 EPA/play | 6 | 5 | 98 / 148 | 66.2 | 1304 | 8.8 | 14 #32 FBS | 1 | 170.1 | 50 | 50.7 | 9.8 | 3.3 | |
Yards by week → Vertical passerElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. This week's matchup — QB Heintschel pushes it downfield on every look. Daniels is the one who runs when the pocket breaks down. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.7 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.7% 91th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mason Heintschel's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.06 EPA/play | 15 | 6 | 77 / 132 | 58.3 | 886 | 6.7 | 4 | 2 | 121.7 | 39 | 34.5 | 6.3 | 2.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 132 pass attempts and 21 carries in 6 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Geriner operates within the system without forcing anything. Daniels is the one who runs when the pocket breaks down. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 25th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %58.1% bottom 16th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Holden Geriner's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.41 EPA/play | 16 | 4 | 17 / 35 | 48.6 | 316 | 9.0 | 3 | 3 | 135.6 | — | 56.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 26 | 9 | 123 | 662 #35 FBS | 5.4 | 6 #55 FBS | 33 | 12.6 | 16.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 123 carries and 18 catches in 9 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2026 class View Damon Ferguson Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 76 | 305 | 4.0 | 5 | 19 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 76 carries and 9 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View La'Vell Wright's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 30 | 131 | 4.4 | 1 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.58 EPA/play | 3 | 9 | 34 | 698 #21 FBS | 20.5 | 6 #23 FBS | 75 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 34 catches in 9 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Hicks beats you over the top. Boggs is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception21.2 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate17.6% 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cataurus Hicks's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.54 EPA/play | 86 | 9 | 30 | 317 | 10.6 | 1 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 30 catches and 1 carry in 9 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. 126 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.2 bottom 32th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume30 94th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Kent's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.42 EPA/play | 10 | 9 | 24 | 270 | 11.2 | 4 #70 FBS | 44 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Lee moves the chains on third down. Boggs is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.5 bottom 39th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Censere Lee's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 18 | 255 | 14.2 | 1 | 30 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Bryce Yates's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.16 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 15 | 204 | 13.6 | 1 | 40 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Malik Knight's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.72 EPA/play | 87 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 19.4 | 2 | 48 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| 24 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 15.6 | 1 | 32 | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.39 EPA/play | 17 | 3 | 7 | 76 | 10.9 | 1 | 31 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.17 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 11.5 | 0 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 8 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 24 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Sean FitzSimmons's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 2 | 9 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 24 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Neal's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 7 | 21 | 13 | 9 #31 FBS | 3.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 21 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate42.9% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nick James's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 8 #50 FBS | 4 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate42.1% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaeden Moore's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 44 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| 16 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 20 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 9 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 6.5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 53 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate5.7% 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Marcelin's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 9 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 43 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Alex Sanford Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 9 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 40 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume40 55th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate6.2% bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braylan Lovelace's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 9 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Demarco Ward's full player page | |||||||||
| 37 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 52 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 12 | 8 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 61 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume61 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Cruce Brookins's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 14 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 35 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume35 62th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Josh Guerrier's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 9 | 32 | 7 #20 FBS | 3 #16 FBS | 1 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 32 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.9% 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Raion Strader's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.0% 75th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Shawn Lee Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 17 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 48 | 9 | 12/13 | 92.3 | 33/33 | 69 | 58 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 98 | 9 | 35 | 1557 | 44.5 | 59 | 13 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 5 | 6 | 116 | 19.3 | 0 | 39 | |
| +0.50 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.58 EPA/play | 3 | 9 | 19 | 146 | 7.7 | 0 | 25 |
Biggest plays from Pittsburgh’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Pittsburgh’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 12:36 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadBilly Edwards finds Shamar Easter for a 75-yard touchdownNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh, week 6Q4, 12:36 · North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 177575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passB.Edwards Jr. pass complete deep right to S.Easter caught at Pitt50, for 75 yards to the Pitt00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q3, 0:45 · Virginia Tech down 4J. Overton fumbles and Pittsburgh recoversPittsburgh at Virginia Tech, week 5Q3, 0:45 · Virginia Tech 24, Pittsburgh 28▼33%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 58% to 25%▼33%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 58% to 25%J.Overton, Jr. rush middle for 9 yards loss to the Hokies41 fumbled by J.Overton, Jr. at Hokies45 recovered by UP I.Neal at Hokies41, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q4, 1:34 · Pittsburgh down 6Charlie Comella intercepts Corey DaileyPittsburgh at Boston College, week 7Q4, 1:34 · Pittsburgh 21, Boston College 27▼24%Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 33% to 9%▼24%Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 33% to 9%C.Dailey pass intercepted by C.Comella at BC 33, End Of Play▶Watch from this play- Q2, 0:51 · Boston College down 5, takes the leadMason McKenzie finds Javarius Green for an 11-yard touchdownPittsburgh at Boston College, week 7Q2, 0:51 · Boston College 14, Pittsburgh 12Boston College took the lead in the second quarterBoston College took the lead in the second quarterM.McKenzie pass complete short middle to J.Green caught at PIT00, for 11 yards to the PIT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 14:14 · Boston College up 2Mason McKenzie finds Landon Wright for a 69-yard touchdownPittsburgh at Boston College, week 7Q3, 14:14 · Boston College 21, Pittsburgh 126969-yard touchdown pass6969-yard touchdown pass69-yard touchdown passM.McKenzie pass complete deep left to L.Wright caught at PIT35, for 69 yards to the PIT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 12:47 · Pittsburgh down 4, takes the leadLa'Vell Wright runs 1 yard for a touchdownNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh, week 6Q4, 12:47 · Pittsburgh 17, North Carolina 14▲22%Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 58% to 80%▲22%Pittsburgh’s chance to win, 58% to 80%L.Wright rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNC00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Pittsburgh lost to North Carolina after being 84% to win; the closest win was at Virginia Tech, down to 8%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Pittsburgh during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Pittsburgh
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · PittsburghCruce Brookins leads Pittsburgh with 61 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+15 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Pittsburgh fields a capable methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Pittsburgh reads strongest in rushing EPA allowed (top 3%) and success rate allowed (top 4%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Pittsburgh sits at the 1st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Pittsburgh is worth +2.9 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile of 133 programs
63% at home, 50% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32-19 home, 22-22 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Pittsburgh has beaten the number by +1.7 more at home than away over 103 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Acrisure Stadium seats 68,400 and has averaged 74% full (50,798, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 326 miles to get here since 2018 — 47th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 20% of the 2026 roster (22 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 59 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatCataurus Hicks is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatJustin Holmes is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatRaphael Williams is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Damon Ferguson Jr. and La'Vell Wright split the carries (118/162 vs 44/162) -- but the job isn't split the same way. La'Vell Wright gets the goal line.
See it develop week by week
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Cataurus Hicks (WR) and Carson Kent (TE) split the targets (55/83 vs 28/83) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Cataurus Hicks produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Pittsburgh actually scores
44th percentile quality, 50th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Pittsburgh’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 30th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 23rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Pittsburgh hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
65th percentile success on standard downs, 50th on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Pittsburgh by half
1st-half offense ranks 69th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 9th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Pittsburgh’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.15; 48th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.43 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Pittsburgh’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Pittsburgh’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 261-play sample) — mid-pack, 48 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Pittsburgh’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 228-play sample) — mid-pack, 91 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 29% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
2 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 25% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
9 interceptions of 36 disrupted passes (27 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 77 penalties committed vs. 70 drawn on opponents, 191 yards behind.
721 penalty yards committed vs. 530 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Pittsburgh
Most similar programs · PittsburghReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 46°, between 35° and 57° in about 7 in 10 games (27 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 66°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 81° (47 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.