cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Dillon Thieneman /Oregon

Dillon Thieneman

DB · Oregon · Jr · #31

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

92 TACKLES · 1 SACKS

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Chicago — Rd 1, Pick 25, #25 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Chicago2026 NFL rookie season

#25Rd 1 · Pick 25
Chicago2026 NFL rookie season

DB · OREGON · BIG TEN

Dillon Thieneman

  • 3
  • #31
  • 6-0 | 205 lb
  • Westfield, IN

CFB Zeitgeist Score

76

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 91st percentile.

Heisman Heat

#13655

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R11 National watch / fringe AA · 2025

2023

Purdue · DB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2024

Purdue · DB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Oregon · DB

R11 · National watch / fringe AA

Recognized

NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 1, Pick 25 · #25 overall · Chicago

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#988 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
R1 &middot; #25
Chicago &middot; 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDB
Class3
Jersey31
Measurements6-0 | 205 lb
HometownWestfield, IN
Primary teamOregon

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 988 recruit
Composite rating 0.8647 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Westfield Westfield, IN, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8647 No. 988 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#13655Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#14115Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Honors Badge 0.7% Honors Badge Recognized on a major honors list (Heisman, All-American, Davey O'Brien, Maxwell, Walter Camp, Nagurski, Biletnikoff). Held by 0.7% of the 2025 pool. Recognized on: All-America (ESPN).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8647

#988 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 1, Pick 25

#25 overall · Chicago

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Dillon Thieneman

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Dillon Thieneman

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

final
Through 15g
92Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
6Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Final
92Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks

✓ Hit 80-tackle season · finished with 92.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Dillon Thieneman is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Oregon's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #13655 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 92 44 solo | #77/4942 (98th pct)
TFL 3.5 Backfield disruption | #869/4972 (83rd pct)
Sacks 1.0 Pass-rush finish | #872/4972 (82nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

Coverage splashHigh-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
92 98th
SOLO
44 97th
TFL
3.5 83rd
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
1 44th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
5 90th
INT
2 87th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 15 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 59-13vs Montana State440.00.00Season-high 12 tackles
Wk 2W 69-3vs Oklahoma State210.00.01
Wk 3W 34-14@ Northwestern500.00.00
Wk 4W 41-7vs Oregon State510.00.00
Wk 5W 30-24@ Penn State430.00.010
Wk 7L 20-30vs Indiana850.00.00
Wk 8W 56-10@ Rutgers200.00.00
Wk 9W 21-7vs Wisconsin730.00.02
Wk 11W 18-16@ Iowa850.00.00
Wk 12W 42-13vs Minnesota430.00.01
Wk 13W 42-27vs USC820.50.00
Wk 14W 26-14@ Washington741.01.010
BowlW 51-34vs James Madison721.00.01
BowlW 23-0@ Texas Tech1261.00.00
BowlL 22-56@ Indiana950.00.00
Total92443.51.025
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Purdue4-8HC: Ryan Walters · Run-leaning
2024Purdue1-11HC: Ryan Walters · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Oregon13-2HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Oregon92443.51.052--
2024Purdue104704.51.06--2
2023Purdue106742.00.026--
Career3 loaded seasons30218810.02.01382
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 2 0 pick-six TD | #114/869 (87th pct)
Pass breakups 5 Coverage disruption | #218/2184 (90th pct)
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 92 #77/4942 98th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 3.5 #869/4972 83rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 1.0 #872/4972 82nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 2 #114/869 87th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 5 #218/2184 90th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 44 #137/4584 97th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

NATIONAL WATCH

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

NATIONAL WATCH · Rung 11 of 16

Why he’s here

National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod.

What moves him up

Convert a fringe mention into a 1st-team NCAA-selector All-American spot.

What moves him down

A quiet close drops this back to the conference honors.

Accolade streams

1st-team selections2×1ST

First-team selections from 2 selectors.

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 15 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home8g5.60.20.00.6
Road7g6.70.30.10.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins13g5.80.30.10.4
Losses2g8.50.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-79g6.20.20.00.2
Weeks 8+6g6.00.20.20.5

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort

76All-Conference
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: tackles (97th). Strength: solo tackles (95th).

Tackles#77 / 2975 · 97th pct
92defe
Solo tackles#137 / 2975 · 95th pct
44defe
Passes defended#218 / 2975 · 91st pct
5defe
Interceptions#114 / 817 · 75th pct
2inte
Tackles for loss#866 / 2975 · 69th pct
3.5defe
Sacks#847 / 2975 · 63rd pct
1.0defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Dillon ThienemanOregonEli BlakeyMiami (OH)· 89% simMarsel McDuffieUNLV· 88% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 88% sim
Tackles
97
Thieneman
99
Blakey
99
McDuffie
98
Dottery
Solo tackles
95
Thieneman
99
Blakey
99
McDuffie
97
Dottery
Passes defended
91
Thieneman
98
Blakey
78
McDuffie
67
Dottery
Interceptions
75
Thieneman
75
Blakey
75
McDuffie
Tackles for loss
69
Thieneman
77
Blakey
83
McDuffie
83
Dottery
Sacks
63
Thieneman
63
Blakey
80
McDuffie
74
Dottery
QB hurries
55
Thieneman
82
Blakey
72
McDuffie
55
Dottery

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Box Safety

Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kobe Hylton’s 2022 season.

Kobe Hylton

84%match

UTEP · 2022

#2

Jack Koerner

Iowa · 2021

85%
#3

Maxen Hook

Toledo · 2021

All-MAC
81%
#4

Kenny Logan Jr.

Kansas · 2022

All-Big 12
80%
#5

Myles Heard

Louisiana Tech · 2023

78%

Matches Kobe on

Height
Tackle volume
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Malik Shorts's junior season at Southern Miss (2022).

Malik Shorts

89%match

Southern Miss · 2022

All-Sun Belt
#2

Drake Thomas

NC State · 2022

All-ACC
84%
#3

Bronson Olevao

Utah State · 2025

83%
#4

Rasheem Biles

Pittsburgh · 2025

All-ACC
80%
#5

C.J. Allen

Georgia · 2025

77%

Matches Malik on

Class year
Height
Tackle volume

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dan Lanning

Pass share

44.9%

436 pass / 534 run

Plays / game

64.7

15 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.8%

250 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2024
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2025
Dan Lanning
Oregon

Played his entire career under Dan Lanning.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownWestfield, IN
Height6'0"
Weight205 lb
Class3
PositionDB
Jersey31

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

5 entries
🥇

ALL-AMERICA

Named All-American (2025)

2 selectors honored him

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-America

2 All-America selections

National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.

All-Conference

3 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2025 All-America (ESPN) all_america ESPN DB
2025 All-America (The Athletic) all_america The Athletic DB
2025 All-Big Ten all_conference Oregon | Big Ten DB
2024 All-Big Ten all_conference Big Ten OTHE
2023 All-Big Ten all_conference Purdue | Big Ten DB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Purdue DB3 #13655 #14115 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Purdue DB3 #10519 #10914 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Oregon Big Ten DB 3 No. 31 | 6-0 | 205 lb | Westfield, IN
2024 Purdue Big Ten DB 3 No. 31 | 6-0 | 205 lb | Westfield, IN
2023 Purdue Big Ten DB 3 No. 31 | 6-0 | 205 lb | Westfield, IN