The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 11 Ohio State 35%, Michigan 69%, Washington 70%
Win out 15% · expect 2.6 of 4 more wins
Oregon's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ohio State 35%, Michigan 69%, Michigan State 91%, Washington 70%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 72% to 16%, peaking at 72% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Dylan Raiola 1,097 · Rushing Jordon Davison 439 · Receiving Dakorien Moore 545 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Oregon:athletics siteBig TenX@goducksYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #3 | #37 | −24.5✗ −17.5 | Boise State | W 34-27 128 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Moore 378 · Rush Davison 90 · Rec McClellan 150 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #2 | #260 | −24.5✗ −32.5 | @Oklahoma State | L 31-39 142 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Moore 191 · Rush Hill Jr. 74 · Rec Stewart 78 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | #5 | #239 | −58.5✓ +25.5 | Portland State | W 84-0 131 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Moore 280 · Rush Davison 81 · Rec Stewart 72 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #5 | #29 | −3.5✓ +10.5 | @USCTop 25 win | W 41-27 143 Loud | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Raiola 289 · Rush Davison 66 · Rec Johnson 119 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #5 | #34 | −10✗ −12 | UCLA | L 15-17 132 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Thomas 156 · Rush Hill Jr. 44 · Rec Moore 77 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #8 | #17 | −6.5✗ −3.5 | Nebraska | W 17-14 143 | 4-2 | 2-1 | Pass Raiola 59 · Rush Hill Jr. 67 · Rec Moore 36 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #10 | #80 | −10.5✗ −21.5 | @Illinois | L 10-21 131 Roaring | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Raiola 246 · Rush Davison 92 · Rec Moore 70 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #9 | #12 | −4✓ +4 | NorthwesternTop 25 win | W 34-26 133 | 5-3 | 3-2 | Pass Raiola 336 · Rush Smith 82 · Rec Moore 128 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #11 | #2 | +7.5 | @Ohio State | 3:30 pm ET · CBS35% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #11 | #30 | −13.5 | Michigan | time TBA69% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @Michigan State | 8 pm ET · FOX91% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | −15.5 | Washington | time TBA | |||||
Win chances are our model for Oregon, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Oregon: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Northwestern | W 34-26 | 441 | 1 | 24:06 | +0.209 | 39.3% | 1.66 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Illinois | L 10-21 | 426 | 1 | 29:15 | +0.164 | 46.1% | 1.18 | |
| Oct 17 | Nebraska | W 17-14 | 242 | 2 | 30:23 | -0.069 | 35.5% | 0.86 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | UCLA | L 15-17 | 272 | 7 | 20:45 | -0.529 | 28.6% | 0.62 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @USC | W 41-27 | 504 | 0 | 31:25 | +0.444 | 44.9% | 1.51 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 18 | Portland State | W 84-0 | 726 | 0 | 41:18 | +0.611 | 62.1% | 1.24 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Oklahoma State | L 31-39 | 281 | 1 | 23:06 | -0.081 | 31.1% | 1.65 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Boise State | W 34-27 | 497 | 1 | 28:06 | +0.277 | 45.3% | 1.51 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 424 | 1.6 | +0.128 | 41.6% | 1.28 | ||||
Oregon's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 1 Georgia
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
You have to know where he's at at all times; he's dynamic in every phase. I think our players are excited to take on that challenge. But defending a guy like him is a real challenge
16% now · ▲ 5 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Oregon · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 8%; 7 wins 32%; 8 wins 43%; 9 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Oregon is the flashiest brand in football — Nike money, the deepest portal hauls, back-to-back Playoffs — and still has no national title to silence the room.
The take that all the money and flash still haven't bought the one thing that matters — that Oregon is a great brand and a very good team, not a champion. The fanbase wants the ring that ends the…
Oregon · Game-day weather
Typical at Autzen Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 90 to 94
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Oregon is the program that made fast look fashionable and then had to decide whether to take itself seriously.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
22 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #21, Sarah Hughes (USA Sports), to #25, Trevor Hass (Boston.com). 48 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
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No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Oregon · 2026