CFB Zeitgeist Score
14
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 50th percentile.
Jay Harris
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
151 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 42 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Oregon for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Oregon
Returning around him
- 19% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 7 Oregon players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -17 net (13 in / 30 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Oregon · Last season: 13-2 (AP #5) · Talent rank #5 · 2026 recruiting class #5
RB · OREGON · BIG TEN
Jay Harris
- 3
- #22
- 6-2 | 224 lb
- St. Louis, MO
Heisman Heat
#508
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
102 windows · 2025 fan posts
jay×305.1natty×228.8officially×183.1duck×915.3oregon×17.8portal×9.4
“Oregon RB Jay Harris transfers to Kansas State [Source]( Made with the /r/CFB [Recruiting and Draft Post Generator](”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+331%
Up 331% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Oregon
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jay Harris
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
62
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=17
- National · n=5
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jay Harris
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 9g
151Rush yards
42Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
16.8Rush yards
5Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
218.1Rush yards
61Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 151): needs 149.8/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 151): needs 212.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 151): needs 337.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 3.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 4.5/game over remaining 4.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jay Harris's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Oregon, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
42 54th
YDS
151 49th
YPC
3.6 24th
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
6 47th
YDS
89 66th
YPR
14.8 94th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 59-13vs Montana State | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | Season-high 35 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 69-3vs Oklahoma State | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-14@ Northwestern | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 4 | W 41-7vs Oregon State | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 7 | L 20-30vs Indiana | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 8 | W 56-10@ Rutgers | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-13vs Minnesota | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 | 12 | |
| Bowl | W 51-34vs James Madison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bowl | L 22-56@ Indiana | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 1 | 7 | |
| Total | 42 | 151 | 3.6 | 2 | 16 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Oregon13-1HC: Dan Lanning · Balanced
2025Oregon13-2HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 151 | #375/735 | 49th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.6 | #561/735 | 24th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 6 | #291/552 | 47th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 89 | #187/548 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.07 | #263/362 | 28th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 44 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 9.0% | #354/738 | 52nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 42 | #338/739 | 54th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 16 | #448/733 | 39th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 50 | #46/540 | 92nd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 14.8 | #35/548 | 94th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 15.1% | #345/738 | 53rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.1% | #357/738 | 52nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 9.6% | #361/738 | 51st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.2% | #227/738 | 69th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 7.1% | #464/738 | 37th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.0% | #345/738 | 53rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 2.6% | #351/738 | 53rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 9.7 | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Road3g | 31.0 | 5.3 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 16.4 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| Losses2g | 18.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 14.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 26.0 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
14Below cohort
Concern: rush yards (2nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.07Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jay HarrisOregonTae MeadowsTroy· 50% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 46% simSeth McGowanKentucky· 46% sim
Rec yards
Rush TDs
Receptions
Yards / carry
Long run
Carries
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Mike Franklin’s 2023 season.
Mike Franklin
72%match
#2
Jamoni Jones
68%
#3
Jamoni Jones
65%
#4
Nicholas Singleton
All-Big TenNFL Rd 5
64%
#5
Markese Stepp
62%
Matches Mike on
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Differs from Mike on
Class year (higher)
EPA / carry (adj) (lower)
Rush TD rate (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Grayson McCall's sophomore season at Coastal Carolina (2021).
Grayson McCall
69%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Nicholas Singleton
All-Big TenNFL Rd 5
70%
#3
Challen Faamatau
69%
#4
Anderson Castle
65%
#5
Chaton Mobley
65%
Matches Grayson on
Height
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Grayson on
Class year (lower)
EPA / carry (adj) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Lanning
Pass share
44.9%
436 pass / 534 run
Plays / game
64.7
15 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.8%
250 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2025
Dan Lanning
Oregon
Played his entire career under Dan Lanning.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSt. Louis, MO
Height6'2"
Weight224 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey22
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOregon
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Oregon | RB3 | #508 | #375 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.