The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Dan Lanning

Followed Mario Cristobal. Dan Lanning inherited a Power Program I Oregon and won with it.

48–8

2022–now · 1 stint

In his own words

Evan played a good game… I have the utmost trust for him because of how hard he has worked
Dailyemerald · Sep 6, 2026 · the day after Oregon's 2026 opener

I thought we lacked a little killer instinct at the end, and our standards can’t change

DailyemeraldAug 28, 20268 days before the opener

We had a lot of young talent last year and certainly a lot of talent

DailyemeraldAug 28, 20268 days before the opener

That’s a great thing to highlight

DailyemeraldAug 28, 20268 days before the opener

I hope we will be your favorite team in America

DailyemeraldJul 31, 2026

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oregon, 5 seasons (active)

+6.2

Power Program I → Power Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Oregon10.6pt#121 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kalen DeBoer.

Rivalry record

3–4

42.9% · 2 rivals

One-score games

10–5

66.7% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Buyout owed

$56,733,333

bigger than 93% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Washington2–340%

Oregon State1–150%

The toughest matchup

vs. Kalen DeBoer0–3

3 meetings, 2022–2023

’22 L · blew a 7-pt lead’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

2–1 66.7%

Power Program

15–5 75.0%

National Program

17–2 89.5%

Regional Program

6–0 100.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.92

#4 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.18

#65 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

job securityLimited signal that season

fans believe Dan Lanning has publicly reaffirmed his commitment to Oregon

Dan Lanning Yet Again Shuts Down Rumors About Him Leaving Oregon! Via: cfbalerts On Instagram THE GRASS IS DAMN GREEN!!!
Happy Dan Lanning Day! 12/11 No bullshit personal drama, locked in with Oregon and is one of the Top 5 coaches in America.

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Oct 30, 2025–Dec 11, 2025 · via ducks

Show all 2

job securityOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Dan Lanning is secure in his position and will remain at Oregon for the foreseeable future

Lanning is not on a hot seat for at-least another five years. And to be honest. As another Oregon fan. The dude is loved by all of us.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026 · via The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast

Coaching career

2022–now

Oregoninheritor

Power Program I → Power Program I

Dan Lanning inherited a Power Program I Oregon and won with it.

3rd-best Oregon tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+26.6 pts

#17 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+1.1 pts

#95 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mario Cristobal (2018–2021).

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	10–3	12–2	13–1	13–2	0–0
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#13	#9	#3	#5	#3
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.0	54.0	48.2	44.3	54.9
Coordinators
OC	Kenny Dillingham / Junior Adams	Will Stein / Junior Adams	Will Stein / Junior Adams	Drew Mehringer / Will Stein	Drew Mehringer
DC	Matt Powledge / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	90	100	97	92	41
Defense	42	92	56	82	27
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	47.7	52.9	45.3	40.3	46.2
Red-zone pass%	43.8	52.3	38.9	32.9	50.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	51.5	41.4	36.4	40.0	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.5★ avg rating

Portal departures

118

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-53

#93 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Dylan Raiola On3 modeled · $1,324,978Bear Alexander On3 modeled · $1,500,000Koi Perich On3 modeled · $2,000,000Dante Moore On3 modeled · $5,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 234 lbs

across 55 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.7 lbs

#40 of 255 · more than most

Avg. class year

#45 of 255 · more than most

Top states: TX (6), CA (5), OR (4), NY (3), FL (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

66.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

64.5

position-weighted

Net

+2.0

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Dante Moore (QB) from UCLA

Biggest loss: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) to California

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Kenny Dillingham / co-Junior Adams → Will Stein / co-Junior Adams · 2023