Oregon: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2022–now

Dan Lanning Inheritor

Dan Lanning inherited Oregon at Power Program I and won with it.

2023 offense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Washington

+6.2 pts over 5 seasons · top 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Kill’s Northern Illinois run (2008–2010)

3rd-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Mario Cristobal (2018–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	10-3	12-2	13-1	13-2	5-3
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	CFP loss	CFP loss	—
Recruiting rank	#13	#9	#3	#5	#3
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.0	54.0	48.2	44.3	52.3
Coordinators
OC	Drew Mehringer / Kenny Dillingham / Junior Adams	Drew Mehringer / Will Stein / Junior Adams	Drew Mehringer / Will Stein / Junior Adams	Drew Mehringer / Will Stein	Drew Mehringer (relieved of duties Oct. 25)
DC	Matt Powledge / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton / Tosh Lupoi	Chris Hampton
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	90	100	97	92	42
Defense	42	92	56	82	88
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	47.7	52.9	45.3	40.3	49.5
Red-zone pass%	43.8	52.3	38.9	32.9	38.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	51.5	41.4	36.4	40.0	44.4

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+26.6 pts

#17 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

+1.7 pts

#93 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.5★ avg rating

Portal departures

118

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-53

#93 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Dylan Raiola On3 modeled · $1,324,978Bear Alexander On3 modeled · $1,500,000Koi Perich On3 modeled · $2,000,000Dante Moore On3 modeled · $5,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 233 lbs

across 55 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.8 lbs

#45 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#29 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (6), CA (5), OR (4), NY (3), FL (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

66.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

64.5

position-weighted

Net

+2.0

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Dante Moore (QB) from UCLA

Biggest loss: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB) to California

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Drew Mehringer (co) / Kenny Dillingham / Junior Adams (co) → Drew Mehringer (co) / Will Stein / Junior Adams (co) · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 52.9% (+5.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 81% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Drew Mehringer (co) / Will Stein / Junior Adams (co) → Drew Mehringer (co) / Will Stein · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.3% → 40.3% (-5.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Drew Mehringer (co) / Will Stein → Drew Mehringer (relieved of duties Oct. 25) · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 40.3% → 49.5% (+9.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 75% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Matt Powledge (co) / Tosh Lupoi → Chris Hampton (co) / Tosh Lupoi · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Chris Hampton (co) / Tosh Lupoi → Chris Hampton · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

210 lbs

6′2″ avg · #456 of 767 · middle half

Running back

206 lbs

5′10″ avg · #435 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

189 lbs

6′1″ avg · #563 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

246 lbs

6′4″ avg · #323 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

318 lbs

6′5″ avg · #80 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

309 lbs

6′4″ avg · #19 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

248 lbs

6′3″ avg · #2 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

195 lbs

6′1″ avg · #141 of 771 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

73%

#162 of 208 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

79%

#173 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2022: Beat North Carolina 28-27 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl2023: Beat Liberty 45-6 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2024: Lost to Ohio State 21-41 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential2025: Beat James Madison 51-34 College Football Playoff First Round Game2025: Beat Texas Tech 23-0 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl2025: Lost to Indiana 22-56 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

31 NFL Draft picks: Christian Gonzalez (2023), DJ Johnson (2023), Noah Sewell (2023), Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu (2023), Jordon Riley (2023), Alex Forsyth (2023), Bo Nix (2024), Jackson Powers-Johnson (2024) + 23 more

7 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jackson Powers-Johnson (2023), Dillon Gabriel (2024), Josh Conerly Jr. (2024), Dillon Thieneman (2025), A'Mauri Washington (2025), Bryce Boettcher (2025), Iapani Laloulu (2025)

AI Narratives — “Oregon's Offseason Transitions” and 10 more on the team page.

+6.2

53-11

2021

Bryan McClendon Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Washington

0-1

2018–2021

Mario Cristobal Inheritor

Mario Cristobal inherited Oregon at Power Program I and kept it there.

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Washington

−3.3 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 47% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ron Vanderlinden’s Maryland run (1997–2000)

4th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Willie Taggart (2017) · succeeded by Dan Lanning (2022–now).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	9-4	12-2	4-3	10-3
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#13	#7	#12	#6
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.2	46.7	44.5	43.4
Coordinators
OC	Marcus Arroyo	Marcus Arroyo	Joe Moorhead	Joe Moorhead
DC	Jim Leavitt	Andy Avalos	Andy Avalos	Joe Salave'a / Ken Wilson / Tim DeRuyter
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	59	77	79	82
Defense	68	94	44	23
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	34.5	39.5	41.6	41.0
Red-zone pass%	37.0	36.9	37.7	33.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	45.5	40.0	20.0	37.8

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+11.1 pts

#61 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-4.2 pts

#121 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-12

#185 of 187 FBS stints

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

0.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

35.9

position-weighted

Net

-35.9

arrivals minus departures

Biggest loss: Cale Millen (QB) to Northern Arizona

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

226 lbs

6′3″ avg · #70 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

207 lbs

5′10″ avg · #410 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #596 of 791 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

319 lbs

6′5″ avg · #60 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

292 lbs

6′3″ avg · #212 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

239 lbs

6′2″ avg · #35 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #467 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Michigan State 7-6 Bowl2019: Beat Wisconsin 28-27 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual2020: Lost to Iowa State 17-34 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Ugochukwu Amadi (2019), Justin Hollins (2019), Dillon Mitchell (2019), Jalen Jelks (2019), Justin Herbert (2020), Troy Dye (2020), Shane Lemieux (2020), Jake Hanson (2020) + 6 more

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Justin Herbert (2019), Kayvon Thibodeaux (2021), Verone McKinley III (2021)

−3.3

35-13

2017

Willie Taggart Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Washington

7-5

2013–2016

Mark Helfrich Inheritor

Mark Helfrich inherited the Ducks at Power Program I and won with it.

2014 offense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Washington

−3.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Chryst’s Pittsburgh run (2012–2014)

1st-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Chip Kelly (2009–2012) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2017).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	11-2	13-2	9-4	4-8
Postseason	W bowl	Title game L	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#19	#21	#16	#27
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.6	42.4	37.8	44.7
Coordinators
OC	—	Scott Frost	Scott Frost	Matt Lubick
DC	—	Don Pellum	Don Pellum	Brady Hoke
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	98	100	90	75
Defense	85	70	20	2
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.4	44.2	37.6	33.9
Red-zone pass%	43.3	39.9	35.8	45.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	62.2	48.9	45.1	47.5

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+21.6 pts

#36 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-49.2 pts

#209 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Scott Frost → Matt Lubick · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 37.6% → 33.9% (-3.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Don Pellum → Brady Hoke · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Beat Texas 30-7 Valero Alamo Bowl2014: Beat Florida State 59-20 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual - Semifinal2014: Lost to Ohio State 20-42 Cfp National Championship Game Pres. By At&T2015: Lost to TCU 41-47 Valero Alamo Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Josh Huff (2014), De'Anthony Thomas (2014), Taylor Hart (2014), Terrance Mitchell (2014), Marcus Mariota (2015), Arik Armstead (2015), Jake Fisher (2015), Hroniss Grasu (2015) + 3 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Marcus Mariota (2014)

−3.0

37-16

2009–2012

Chip Kelly Builder

Chip Kelly raised the Ducks from Power Program II to Power Program I.

2010 defense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Washington

+17.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Brohm’s Western Kentucky run (2014–2016)

2nd-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Bellotti (1995–2008) · succeeded by Mark Helfrich (2013–2016).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	10-3	12-1	12-2	12-1
Postseason	L bowl	Title game L	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#30	#12	#12	#14
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	38.2	38.5	38.0	35.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	80	83	96	93
Defense	60	97	84	91
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	40.2	43.6	39.6	42.9
Red-zone pass%	28.0	35.9	39.3	37.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	41.7	41.0	42.9	48.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2009: Lost to Ohio State 17-26 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Citi2010: Lost to Auburn 19-22 Tostitos Bcs National Championship Game2011: Beat Wisconsin 45-38 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio2012: Beat Kansas State 35-17 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: T.J. Ward (2010), Ed Dickson (2010), Walter Thurmond (2010), Casey Matthews (2011), LaMichael James (2012), Josh Kaddu (2012), Mark Asper (2012), David Paulson (2012) + 5 more

+17.5

46-7

1995–2008

Mike Bellotti Builder

Mike Bellotti raised the Ducks from National Program II to Power Program II.

2005 defense ranked in the 98th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Washington

+17.7 pts over 14 seasons · top 31% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina run (2005–2015)

5th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Rich Brooks (1977–1994) · succeeded by Chip Kelly (2009–2012).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	9-3	6-5	7-5	8-4	9-3	10-2	11-1	7-6	8-5	5-6	10-2	7-6	9-4	10-3
Postseason	L bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	#12	#31	#50	#14	#34
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.5	53.4	50.7	40.2	39.0
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	65	56	74	60	60
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	69	98	68	89	81
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	46.1	45.2	46.0	37.9	38.1
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	42.7	53.0	35.0	34.7	29.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	55.2	27.0	38.1	20.9	31.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail1995: Lost to Colorado 6-38 Bowl1997: Beat Air Force 41-13 Bowl1998: Lost to Colorado 43-51 Bowl1999: Beat Minnesota 24-20 Bowl2000: Beat Texas 35-30 Bowl2001: Beat Colorado 38-16 Bowl2002: Lost to Wake Forest 17-38 Bowl2003: Lost to Minnesota 30-31 Bowl2005: Lost to Oklahoma 14-17 Bowl2006: Lost to BYU 8-38 Bowl2007: Beat South Florida 56-21 Bowl2008: Beat Oklahoma State 42-31 Bowl

42 NFL Draft picks: Paul Wiggins (1997), Kenny Wheaton (1997), Tony Graziani (1997), Patrick Johnson (1998), Blake Spence (1998), Akili Smith (1999), Josh Bidwell (1999), Jed Weaver (1999) + 34 more

+17.7

116-55

1977–1994

Rich Brooks Steady≈

Rich Brooks moved the Ducks from Regional Program II to National Program II in 18 seasons.

vs. Washington

+10.7 pts over 18 seasons · bottom 45% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Bower’s Southern Miss run (1990–2007)

7th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Don Read (1974–1976) · succeeded by Mike Bellotti (1995–2008).

Season	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Record & result
Record	2-9	2-9	6-5	6-3-2	2-9	2-8-1	4-6-1	6-5	5-6	5-6	6-5	6-6	8-4	8-4	3-8	6-6	5-6	9-4
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1989: Beat Tulsa 27-24 Bowl1990: Lost to Colorado State 31-32 Bowl1992: Lost to Wake Forest 35-39 Bowl1994: Lost to Penn State 20-38 Bowl

24 NFL Draft picks: Fred Quillan (1978), Terry Dion (1980), Bryan Hinkle (1981), Reggie Brown (1982), Vince Williams (1982), Mike Walter (1983), Steve Brown (1983), Steve Baack (1984) + 16 more

+10.7

91-109-4

1974–1976

Don Read Steady

Don Read slid Oregon from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

vs. Washington

−10.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 10% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Davie’s Notre Dame run (1997–2001)

11th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Dick Enright (1972–1973) · succeeded by Rich Brooks (1977–1994).

2 NFL Draft picks: Russ Francis (1975), Mario Clark (1976)

−10.9

9-24

1972–1973

Dick Enright Short tenure

vs. Washington

6-16

1967–1971

Jerry Frei Steady

Jerry Frei slid the Ducks from National Program II to National Program III in 5 seasons.

vs. Washington

−5.6 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 33% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Keith Burns’s Tulsa run (2000–2002)

9th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Len Casanova (1951–1966) · succeeded by Dick Enright (1972–1973).

7 NFL Draft picks: Jim Smith (1968), Andy Maurer (1970), Jim Evenson (1970), Bob Newland (1971), Ahmad Rashad (1972), Tom Drougas (1972), Tom Graham (1972)

−5.6

22-29-2

1951–1966

Len Casanova Steady

Len Casanova moved the Ducks from National Program II to National Program I in 16 seasons.

vs. Washington

+9.3 pts over 16 seasons · bottom 38% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Blackney’s Bowling Green run (1991–2000)

6th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Aiken (1947–1950) · succeeded by Jerry Frei (1967–1971).

+9.3

82-73-8

1947–1950

Jim Aiken Steady

Jim Aiken moved the Ducks from Regional Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

vs. Washington

+8.1 pts over 4 seasons · top 8% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gerry DiNardo’s LSU run (1995–1999)

8th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Tex Oliver (1945–1946) · succeeded by Len Casanova (1951–1966).

+8.1

21-20

1938–1941, 1945–1946

Tex Oliver Steady

Tex Oliver slid Oregon from National Program II to National Program III in 6 seasons.

vs. Washington

−2.8 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 33% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Bloomgren’s Rice run (2018–2024)

10th-best Oregon tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Prink Callison (1936–1937) · succeeded by John Warren (1942) · returned in 1945 · succeeded by Jim Aiken (1947–1950).

−2.8

23-28-3

1942

John Warren Short tenure

vs. Washington

2-6

1936–1937

Prink Callison Short tenure

vs. Washington

6-12-1