This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianFresno StateWashingtonAlabamaAuburnAuburnDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelFresno State when he took over: 26.2 (National Program III), its final 2019 readingtook overFresno State, 2020: 3-3, Regional Program IFresno State, 2020: 3-3, Regional Program I20203-3Fresno State, 2021: 9-3, National Program IIIFresno State, 2021: 9-3, National Program III20219-3+1.8Washington when he took over: 50.2 (Power Program II), its final 2021 readingtook overWashington, 2022: 11-2, Power Program IIWashington, 2022: 11-2, Power Program II202211-2Washington, 2023: 14-1, Power Program IWashington, 2023: 14-1, Power Program I202314-1+8.0Alabama when he took over: 94.4 (Blue Blood), its final 2023 readingtook overAlabama, 2024: 9-4, Blue BloodAlabama, 2024: 9-4, Blue Blood20249-4Alabama, 2025: 11-4, Blue Blood202511-4Alabama, 2026: 6-2, Blue BloodAlabama, 2026: 6-2, Blue Blood20266-2-10.6best: 2024bracket: consecutive-win streak · gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes21-game win streak (2022-23)

Bowls and playoffs: 3-3 · won 0 of 1 national title game

Washington2022Alamo BowlW 27-202023 semiSugar BowlW 37-312023CFP title gameL 13-34Alabama2024ReliaQuest BowlL 13-192025CFP first roundW 34-242025 QFRose BowlL 3-38

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-20 vs. Texas A&M Sat Oct 24
  • This season6-2
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat LSU Sat Nov 7
  • Stature1st of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #13 → #9 up four
  • Playoff odds 59% → 64% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at LSU

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ABC · No. 15 LSU is 6-2 · First meeting between DeBoer and Lane Kiffin as head coaches · Alabama’s chance to win: 43% (the site’s model)

His week

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are feeling good about Alabama

Alabama has wins against 2 ranked teams but they have 2 losses. bYU has wins against 2 ranked teams and 1 loss and they are 5 spots back... Yikes

Former Alabama kicker Cade Foster officially wins reelection as County Attorney for McCracken County, KY (he was running unopposed) submitted by /u/DoctorWhosOnFirst [link] [comments]

Alabama’s record at lsu is 30 wins 10 losses 3 ties. I like our chances at that crap hole. RTR

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 20th of 138 per play. Defense: 15th.

Offense, per play20thOffense, starting field position6thDefense, per play15thRun defense3rdWorstBest
Offense, per play20th of 138Offense, starting field position6th of 138Defense, per play15th of 138Run defense3rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Alabama. The other two rows are where Alabama stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at LSU (6-2)ABC43%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Vanderbilt (3-5)SEC Network93%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Chattanooga (6-3)SECN+99%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Auburn (4-4)89%

Percent: Alabama’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Alabama has held at 1st of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game43 headlines · 11th of 138Why is Alabama DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. suspended? What Kalen DeBoer said USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25W 31-20 vs. Texas A&M33 headlines · 12th of 138Kalen DeBoer discusses expectations for Bama vs. South Carolina ESPN
  3. Oct 12–18L 10-26 at Tennessee27 headlines · 14th of 138Kalen DeBoer shares message to team after Alabama’s loss to Tennessee Saturday Down South
  4. Oct 5–11L 17-20 vs. Georgia27 headlines · 13th of 138Kalen DeBoer melts down as Georgia uses pass interference no-call, personal foul to top Alabama The New York Times
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 56-23 at Mississippi State19 headlines · 25th of 138Alabama and Kalen DeBoer faced doubts. Now they’re surging back toward the top of the sport The Athletic
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 49-18 vs. South Carolina8 headlines · 44th of 138Kalen DeBoer talks Keelon Russell, injury to Jayvin James, win over South Carolina AL.com

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Alabama’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled57th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Alabama
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $10.2 million in 2025, the 95th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 2% on the season before
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 99th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.