Washington: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Jedd Fisch Inheritor

Jedd Fisch inherited Washington at Power Program I and kept it there.

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Oregon

−3.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 43% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy Tuberville’s Ole Miss run (1995–1998)

5th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Kalen DeBoer (2022–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	6-7	9-4	5-3
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#47	#23	#13
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	49.8	44.5	56.0
Coordinators
OC	Brennan Carroll	Jimmie Dougherty	—
DC	Stephen Belichick	Ryan Walters	Ryan Walters
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	65	84	46
Defense	35	92	74
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	47.5	46.6	54.5
Red-zone pass%	46.1	44.3	42.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	31.9	35.7	37.0

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+17.7 pts

#44 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

+7.1 pts

#72 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-32

#40 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Demond Williams Jr. On3 modeled · $4,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 237 lbs

across 50 of 59 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+6.0 lbs

#67 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#114 of 255 · middle half

Top states: CA (23), WA (8), AZ (3), TX (3), CO (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

59.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

63.3

position-weighted

Net

-3.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Demond Williams Jr. (QB) from Arizona

Biggest loss: Demond Williams Jr. (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Brennan Carroll → Jimmie Dougherty · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.5% → 46.6% (-0.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Stephen Belichick → Ryan Walters · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

201 lbs

6′0″ avg · #688 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

217 lbs

5′10″ avg · #99 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

196 lbs

6′1″ avg · #248 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

248 lbs

6′4″ avg · #264 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

309 lbs

6′5″ avg · #367 of 779 · middle half

D-line

303 lbs

6′4″ avg · #63 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′1″ avg · #402 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

187 lbs

6′2″ avg · #556 of 771 · middle half

Safety

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #232 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Punter via the portal

75%

#5 of 29 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to Louisville 34-35 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2025: Beat Boise State 38-10 Bucked Up LA Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Carson Bruener (2025), Denzel Boston (2026), Tacario Davis (2026), Jonah Coleman (2026), Carver Willis (2026), Ephesians Prysock (2026), Anterio Thompson (2026), Zach Durfee (2026)

AI Narratives — “Washington's Offseason Losses Raise Starter Risk” and 4 more on the team page.

−3.9

20-14

2022–2023

Kalen DeBoer Short tenure

Averaged a 59% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

vs. Oregon

25-3

2021

Bob Gregory Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Oregon

0-3

2020–2021

Jimmy Lake Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Oregon

7-6

2014–2019

Chris Petersen Builder

Chris Petersen raised Washington from National Program II to Power Program I.

2019 defense ranked in the 96th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Oregon

+18.4 pts over 6 seasons · top 5% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bobby Petrino’s Louisville run (2003–2006, 2014–2018)

4th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Sarkisian (2009–2013) · succeeded by Jimmy Lake (2020–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	8-6	7-6	12-2	10-3	10-4	8-5
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	CFP loss	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#38	#26	#29	#22	#16	#15
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	39.7	45.4	43.5	42.4	41.8	47.1
Coordinators
OC	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith	Jonathan Smith / Matt Lubick	Bush Hamdan / Matt Lubick	Bush Hamdan
DC	Pete Kwiatkowski	Pete Kwiatkowski	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake	Pete Kwiatkowski / Jimmy Lake
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	57	61	89	89	73	47
Defense	82	90	95	76	90	96
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	38.9	45.2	48.7	43.4	32.4	46.3
Red-zone pass%	38.0	35.9	55.2	38.2	31.7	47.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	26.3	26.7	18.8	16.7	36.0	49.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+11.2 pts

#61 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+29.7 pts

#9 of 208 · top quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jonathan Smith → Jonathan Smith / Matt Lubick (co) · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 48.7% → 43.4% (-5.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 83% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jonathan Smith / Matt Lubick (co) → Bush Hamdan / Matt Lubick (co) · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 43.4% → 32.4% (-11.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Bush Hamdan / Matt Lubick (co) → Bush Hamdan · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 32.4% → 46.3% (+14.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Pete Kwiatkowski (co) → Pete Kwiatkowski (co) / Jimmy Lake (co) · 2016The system held

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2014: Lost to Oklahoma State 22-30 Ticketcity Cactus Bowl2015: Beat Southern Miss 44-31 Zaxby's Heart Of Dallas Bowl2016: Lost to Alabama 7-24 CFP2017: Lost to Penn State 28-35 Bowl2018: Lost to Ohio State 23-28 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual2019: Beat Boise State 38-7 Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

26 NFL Draft picks: Danny Shelton (2015), Marcus Peters (2015), Shaq Thompson (2015), Hau'Oli Kikaha (2015), Travis Feeney (2016), Dwayne Washington (2016), John Ross (2017), Kevin King (2017) + 18 more

+18.4

55-26

2013

Marques Tuiasosopo Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Oregon

1-0

2009–2013

Steve Sarkisian Steady

Steve Sarkisian held the Huskies at National Program II for 5 seasons.

2011 defense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

vs. Oregon

+2.3 pts over 5 seasons · top 23% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rich Ellerson’s Army run (2009–2013)

11th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Tyrone Willingham (2005–2008) · succeeded by Chris Petersen (2014–2019).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Record & result
Record	5-7	7-6	7-6	7-6	8-4
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#75	#19	#24	#24	#18
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.4	43.9	47.3	48.5	40.4
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	70	39	83	38	79
Defense	18	35	3	90	76
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	55.4	46.7	44.4	49.6	42.2
Red-zone pass%	52.8	40.8	50.6	53.2	35.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	37.5	31.8	34.3	22.6

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2010: Beat Nebraska 19-7 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl2011: Lost to Baylor 56-67 Valero Alamo Bowl2012: Lost to Boise State 26-28 Maaco Bowl Las Vegas

9 NFL Draft picks: Donald Butler (2010), Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (2010), Jake Locker (2011), Mason Foster (2011), Alameda Ta'amu (2012), Senio Kelemete (2012), Desmond Trufant (2013), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2014) + 1 more

+2.3

34-29

2005–2008

Tyrone Willingham Steady

Tyrone Willingham slid the Huskies from Power Program III to National Program I in 4 seasons.

2007 defense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad

vs. Oregon

−13.8 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Ralston’s San José State run (1993–1996)

9th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Keith Gilbertson (2003–2004) · succeeded by Steve Sarkisian (2009–2013).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	2-9	5-7	4-9	0-12
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#68	#32	#38	#19
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.0	48.1	41.8	46.6
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	39	6	35	7
Defense	40	25	4	9
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	38.2	37.5	32.0	37.0
Red-zone pass%	28.2	37.5	20.0	34.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	25.9	17.9	32.6	11.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Joe Toledo (2006), Isaiah Stanback (2007), Dashon Goldson (2007)

−13.8

11-37

2003–2004

Keith Gilbertson Short tenure

2004 offense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

vs. Oregon

7-16

1999–2002

Rick Neuheisel Inheritor

Rick Neuheisel inherited the Huskies at Power Program I and saw it slip to Power Program II.

vs. Oregon

−2.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 50% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Bobo’s Arkansas State run (1993–1996)

3rd-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Lambright (1993–1998) · succeeded by Keith Gilbertson (2003–2004).

Season	1999	2000	2001	2002
Record & result
Record	7-5	11-1	8-4	7-6
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1999: Lost to Kansas State 20-24 Bowl2000: Beat Purdue 34-24 Bowl2001: Lost to Texas 43-47 Bowl2002: Lost to Purdue 24-34 Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Jabari Issa (2000), Lester Towns (2000), Marques Tuiasosopo (2001), Elliot Silvers (2001), Jeremiah Pharms (2001), Hakim Akbar (2001), Chad Ward (2001), Jerramy Stevens (2002) + 2 more

−2.9

33-16

1993–1998

Jim Lambright Inheritor

Jim Lambright inherited the Huskies at Power Program I and kept it there.

vs. Oregon

−7.3 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 13% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Butch Jones’s Arkansas State run (2021–now)

2nd-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Don James (1975–1992) · succeeded by Rick Neuheisel (1999–2002).

Season	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Record & result
Record	7-4	7-4	7-4-1	9-3	8-4	6-6
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1995: Lost to Iowa 18-38 Bowl1996: Lost to Colorado 21-33 Bowl1997: Beat Michigan State 51-23 Bowl1998: Lost to Air Force 25-45 Bowl

21 NFL Draft picks: Pete Pierson (1994), Napoleon Kaufman (1995), Mark Bruener (1995), Eric Bjornson (1995), Frank Garcia (1995), Andrew Peterson (1995), Corey Dillon (1997), Bob Sapp (1997) + 13 more

−7.3

44-25-1

1975–1992

Don James Transformer

Don James took the Huskies from National Program II to Power Program I.

vs. Oregon

+30.6 pts over 18 seasons · top 9% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Barry Alvarez’s Wisconsin run (1990–2005, 2012 (1 game), 2014 (1 game))

1st-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Owens (1957–1974) · succeeded by Jim Lambright (1993–1998).

Season	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
Record & result
Record	6-5	5-6	8-4	7-4	9-3	9-3	10-2	10-2	8-4	11-1	7-5	8-3-1	7-4-1	6-5	8-4	10-2	12-0	9-3
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1977: Beat Michigan 27-20 Bowl1979: Beat Texas 14-7 Bowl1980: Lost to Michigan 6-23 Bowl1981: Beat Iowa 28-0 Bowl1982: Beat Maryland 21-20 Bowl1983: Lost to Penn State 10-13 Bowl1984: Beat Oklahoma 28-17 Bowl1985: Beat Colorado 20-17 Bowl1986: Lost to Alabama 6-28 Bowl1987: Beat Tulane 24-12 Bowl1989: Beat Florida 34-7 Bowl1990: Beat Iowa 46-34 Bowl1991: Beat Michigan 34-14 Bowl1992: Lost to Michigan 31-38 Bowl

60 NFL Draft picks: Ray Pinney (1976), Dan Lloyd (1976), Robin Earl (1977), Blair Bush (1978), Dave Browning (1978), Jeff Toews (1979), Michael Jackson (1979), Robert Gaines (1979) + 52 more

+30.6

150-60-2

1957–1974

Jim Owens Builder

Jim Owens raised the Huskies from National Program III to Power Program III.

vs. Oregon

+15.7 pts over 18 seasons · top 36% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Dantonio’s Michigan State run (2007–2019)

7th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Darrell Royal (1956) · succeeded by Don James (1975–1992).

+15.7

99-82-6

1956

Darrell Royal Short tenure

vs. Oregon

5-5

1953–1955

John Cherberg Steady

John Cherberg slid the Huskies from National Program II to National Program III in 3 seasons.

vs. Oregon

−9.4 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Jinks’s Bowling Green run (2016–2018)

12th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Howard Odell (1948–1952) · succeeded by Darrell Royal (1956).

−9.4

10-18-2

1948–1952

Howard Odell Steady

Howard Odell held Washington at National Program II for 5 seasons.

vs. Oregon

−1.0 pts over 5 seasons · top 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: DeWayne Walker’s New Mexico State run (2009–2012)

10th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Ralph Welch (1944–1947) · succeeded by John Cherberg (1953–1955).

−1.0

23-25-2

1942, 1944–1947

Ralph Welch Steady

Ralph Welch slid Washington from Power Program III to National Program II in 5 seasons.

vs. Oregon

−9.2 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 16% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ed Orgeron’s Ole Miss run (2005–2007)

8th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed James Phelan (1936–1941) · succeeded by Howard Odell (1948–1952).

−9.2

23-19-3

1936–1941

James Phelan Steady

James Phelan held Washington at Power Program III for 6 seasons.

vs. Oregon

6th-best Washington tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Ralph Welch (1942).

Power Program III

33-20-4