The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Tommy Tuberville

Followed Butch Jones. Tommy Tuberville held Cincinnati at National Program I for 4 seasons.

Peak, then fade
159–99
1995–2016 · 4 stints
Ole MissAuburnTexas TechCincinnati
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerOLE MISSAUBURNTEXAS TECHCINCINNATIBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyOle Miss, 1995: 6-5, National Program II1995Ole Miss, 1996: 5-6, National Program IIOle Miss, 1997: 8-4, National Program IIOle Miss, 1998: 6-5, National Program II1998-2.9Auburn, 1999: 5-6, Power Program II1999Auburn, 2000: 9-4, Power Program IIIAuburn, 2001: 7-5, Power Program IIIAuburn, 2002: 9-4, Power Program IIIAuburn, 2003: 8-5, Power Program IIIAuburn, 2004: 13-0, Power Program IAuburn, 2005: 9-3, Power Program IAuburn, 2006: 11-2, Power Program IAuburn, 2007: 9-4, Power Program IAuburn, 2008: 5-7, Power Program II2008+7.2Texas Tech, 2010: 8-5, Power Program III2010Texas Tech, 2011: 5-7, National Program ITexas Tech, 2012: 7-5, National Program I2012-8.3Cincinnati, 2013: 9-4, National Program I2013Cincinnati, 2014: 9-4, National Program ICincinnati, 2015: 7-6, National Program IICincinnati, 2016: 4-8, National Program II2016-4.2One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ole Miss, 4 seasons
−2.9
National Program II → National Program II.
Auburn, 10 seasons
+7.2
Power Program II → Power Program II.
Texas Tech, 3 seasons
−8.3
Power Program III → National Program I.
Cincinnati, 4 seasons
−4.2
National Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%Cincinnati2013–2016▲ 1.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Cincinnati1.6pt#253 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

20–20 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Mack Brown.

Rivalry record
20–20
50.0% · 10 rivals
One-score games
57–29
66.3% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
11–20
35.5%
Rivalry ledger
Georgia5–550%
Alabama7–370%
Miami (OH)3–0100%
LSU1–233%
Mississippi State2–167%
Texas0–30%
Baylor1–233%
Oklahoma State0–30%
The toughest matchup
vs. Mack Brown0–3
3 meetings, 2010–2012
’10 L’11 L’12 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
11–20 35.5%
Power Program
32–31 50.8%
National Program
26–30 46.4%
Regional Program
64–11 85.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.18
#232 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.01
#147 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2016
Cincinnaticaretaker
National Program I → National Program I
Tommy Tuberville held Cincinnati at National Program I for 4 seasons.

5th-best Cincinnati tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-10.5 pts
#151 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-0.8 pts
#106 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Butch Jones (2010–2012) · succeeded by Luke Fickell (2017–2022).

Season2013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record9–49–47–64–8
Postseason—L bowlL bowl—
Recruiting rank—#65#68#74
Style — pass rate
Pass rate—52.051.753.3
Coordinators
OC—Eddie GranEddie GranZac Taylor
DC—Robert Prunty / Hank HughesRobert Prunty / Steve ClinkscaleRobert Prunty
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense—896910
Defense—402969
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%—44.549.947.7
Red-zone pass%—42.639.752.4
4th-down go%opp. territory—24.415.225.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Eddie Gran → Zac Taylor · 2016
69th pct10th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.9% → 47.7% (-2.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 50% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Robert Prunty / co-Hank Hughes → co-Robert Prunty / co-Steve Clinkscale · 2015
40th pct29th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Robert Prunty / co-Steve Clinkscale → Robert Prunty · 2016
29th pct69th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Virginia Tech 17–33 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2015: Lost to San Diego State 7–42 Hawai'i Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Travis Kelce (2013), Parker Ehinger (2016), Chris Moore (2016), Mike Tyson (2017)

29–22
2010–2012
Texas Techcaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program III
Tommy Tuberville held Texas Tech at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

4th-best Texas Tech tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Leach (2000–2009) · succeeded by Kliff Kingsbury (2013–2018).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Jamar Wall (2010), Baron Batch (2011)

20–17
1999–2008
Auburncaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program I
Tommy Tuberville moved Auburn from Power Program II to Power Program I in 10 seasons.

5th-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Terry Bowden (1993–1998) · succeeded by Gene Chizik (2009–2012).

38 NFL Draft picks: Karsten Bailey (1999), Brad Ware (1999), Marcus Washington (2000), Leonardo Carson (2000), Quinton Reese (2000), Jeno James (2000), Heath Evans (2001), Rudi Johnson (2001) + 30 more

85–40
1995–1998
Ole Misscaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Tommy Tuberville held Ole Miss at National Program II for 4 seasons.

14th-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed Joe Lee Dunn (1994–1994).

7 NFL Draft picks: Jeff Miller (1995), Alundis Brice (1995), Roell Preston (1995), Norman Hand (1995), Kris Mangum (1997), John Avery (1998), Nate Wayne (1998)

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