The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Pat Narduzzi

Followed Paul Chryst. Pat Narduzzi moved Pittsburgh from National Program I to Power Program III in 12 seasons.

80–61
2015–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

We try to coach him in a good way anyway
The Pitt News · · 4 days before Pittsburgh's 2026 opener
I think there’s competition all over the place — corner, linebacker, safety, I think running back, for sure
The Pitt News

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 7th career season — faster than 21% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #297 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Pittsburgh, 12 seasons (active)
+7.3
National Program I → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Pittsburgh2015–2026▲ 9.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Pittsburgh18.6pt#16 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–5 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Larry Fedora.

Rivalry record
2–5
28.6% · 2 rivals
One-score games
26–28
48.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Penn State1–325%
The toughest matchup
vs. Larry Fedora0–4
4 meetings, 2015–2018
’15 L · blew a 3-pt lead’16 L · blew a 13-pt lead’17 L · blew a 4-pt lead’18 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
2–2 50.0%
Power Program
13–27 32.5%
National Program
27–22 55.1%
Regional Program
25–4 86.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.08
#187 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.21
#60 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–now
Pittsburghcaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Pat Narduzzi moved Pittsburgh from National Program I to Power Program III in 12 seasons.

8th-best Pittsburgh tenure of 23 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-9.0 pts
#148 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+13.9 pts
#53 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Paul Chryst (2012–2014).

Season201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record8–58–55–77–78–56–511–39–43–97–68–50–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlCFP lossW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#46#30#37#47#58#44#26#76#51#41#51#44
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.237.444.035.653.852.350.943.050.354.251.949.7
Coordinators
OCJim ChaneyMatt CanadaShawn WatsonShawn WatsonMark WhippleMark WhippleMark WhippleFrank CignettiFrank CignettiKade BellKade BellKade Bell
DCJosh ConklinJosh ConklinJosh ConklinRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesRandy BatesCory Sanders
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense629043742030764912193969
Defense252756678977938979738826
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.629.537.329.949.548.254.136.046.747.446.243.1
Red-zone pass%40.025.323.514.651.939.454.033.340.458.360.4
4th-down go%opp. territory20.030.629.424.217.929.537.832.533.317.942.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
63
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
105
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-42
#118 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 50 of 63 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.2 lbs
#114 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#102 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: GA (9), PA (7), FL (7), CA (5), OH (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.2
position-weighted
Net
-3.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Kedon Slovis (QB) from USC
Biggest loss: Joey Yellen (QB) to Hawai'i
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jim Chaney → Matt Canada · 2016
62nd pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 35.6% → 29.5% (-6.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 69% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Matt Canada → Shawn Watson · 2017
90th pct43rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 29.5% → 37.3% (+7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Shawn Watson → Mark Whipple · 2019the offense collapsed across the change
58th pct25th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 33.6% → 48.9% (+15.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 51% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mark Whipple → Frank Cignetti · 2022the offense slipped
53rd pct30th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 51.2% → 41.3% (-9.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 29% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Frank Cignetti → Kade Bell · 2024the system held
30th pct29th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 41.3% → 46.8% (+5.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Josh Conklin → Randy Bates · 2018the defense leveled up
41st pct78th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Randy Bates → Cory Sanders · 2026
88th pct26th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
219 lbs
6′4″ avg · #191 of 767 · more than most
Running back
196 lbs
5′10″ avg · #722 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
191 lbs
6′1″ avg · #463 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
250 lbs
6′4″ avg · #199 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′5″ avg · #186 of 779 · more than most
D-line
270 lbs
6′3″ avg · #662 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
221 lbs
6′1″ avg · #674 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #498 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
83%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
73%
#161 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Navy 28–44 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman2016: Lost to Northwestern 24–31 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2018: Lost to Stanford 13–14 CFP2019: Beat Eastern Michigan 34–30 Quick Lane Bowl2021: Lost to Michigan State 21–31 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2022: Beat UCLA 37–35 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2024: Lost to Toledo 46–48 GameAbove Sports Bowl2025: Lost to East Carolina 17–23 Go Bowling Military Bowl

33 NFL Draft picks: T.J. Clemmings (2015), Tyler Boyd (2016), James Conner (2017), Dorian Johnson (2017), Nathan Peterman (2017), Adam Bisnowaty (2017), Ejuan Price (2017), Brian O'Neill (2018) + 25 more

9 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Patrick Jones II (2020), Rashad Weaver (2020), Kenny Pickett (2021), Jordan Addison (2021), Cal Adomitis (2021), Israel Abanikanda (2022), Calijah Kancey (2022), Kyle Louis (2024) + 1 more

80–61