Larry Fedora
Followed Everett Withers. Larry Fedora moved North Carolina from National Program II to National Program I in 7 seasons.
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
7–9 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Justin Fuente.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
7th-best North Carolina tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Everett Withers (2011–2011).
| Season | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||
| Record | 8–4 | 7–6 | 6–7 | 11–3 | 8–5 | 3–9 | 2–9 | |
| Postseason | — | — | L bowl | L bowl | CFP loss | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | #30 | #28 | #32 | #29 | #20 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | 50.6 | 43.7 | 53.3 | 48.8 | 50.7 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||
| OC | — | — | Chris Kapilovic / Seth Littrell | Seth Littrell | Chris Kapilovic / Gunter Brewer | Chris Kapilovic / Gunter Brewer | Chris Kapilovic | |
| DC | — | — | Dan Disch / Ron West | Gene Chizik | Gene Chizik | John Papuchis | John Papuchis | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||
| Offense | — | — | 54 | 99 | 82 | 28 | 37 | |
| Defense | — | — | 0 | 18 | 48 | 39 | 33 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | 47.0 | 41.5 | 46.4 | 43.0 | 45.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | 32.2 | 39.6 | 45.3 | 39.5 | 34.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | 41.0 | 18.4 | 31.6 | 51.6 | 25.0 | |
22 NFL Draft picks: Quinton Coples (2012), Zach Brown (2012), Jonathan Cooper (2013), Sylvester Williams (2013), Giovani Bernard (2013), Brennan Williams (2013), Travis Bond (2013), Eric Ebron (2014) + 14 more
4th-best Southern Miss tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Jeff Bower (1990–2007) · succeeded by Ellis Johnson (2012–2012).
4 NFL Draft picks: Robert Henderson (2008), Shawn Nelson (2009), Gerald McRath (2009), Lamar Holmes (2012)