Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 3-5
2008New Orleans BowlW 30-27
2009New Orleans BowlL 32-42
2010Beef 'O' Brady's BowlL 28-31
2011Hawai'i BowlW 24-17
North Carolina
2013Belk BowlW 39-17
2014Quick Lane BowlL 21-40
2015Russell Athletic BowlL 38-49
2016Sun BowlL 23-25
Report card
Offense carries it: 74th percentile offense, below the median defense at 45th.
North Carolina, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Defense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Fans
No fan talk about him on our list yet. His record is on Career.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-0 against his rivals at Southern Miss. Just 1-3 against Neil Callaway.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5-9 against his rivals at North Carolina. Winless in 3 tries against Justin Fuente.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
7-9 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Justin Fuente.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Passed more than the situation called for under Brewer/Kapilovic/Littrell, Littrell and Brewer/Kapilovic.
5,489 run and pass snaps at North Carolina, 2012–2018, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His one ranked North Carolina class of his own finished #20 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Followed him here
Southern Miss→
North Carolina2012Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2018 roster arrived on his watch — 111 of 111 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
This coach's entire tenure (2012-2018) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his North Carolina rosters have averaged 3 lb heavier than the FBS average (2012–2018). In the two seasons before he arrived, North Carolina’s line averaged 4 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 47 of 136 signees (35%) across his 2012–2018 tenure, drawn from 17 states in all. Next: GA (23).
65% of his signees come from NC and its 4 border states (GA 23, VA 9, SC 5, TN 5).
Off this map: 7 signees to the west (TX 4, AZ, others) and 1 to the north (MA).
- median hometown distance
- 233 mi
- within 100 mi
- 21%
- within 500 mi
- 79%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 6%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 9 of them himself; 4 arrived under Butch Davis (3), Everett Withers (1). 7 more can’t be traced to who brought them in (no roster record). 4 went in the first round.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | R5.35 | Cole Holcomb | Outside Linebacker |  Washington Redskins | |
| 2018 | R2.21 | M.J. Stewart | Cornerback |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 2018 | R7.16 | Andre Smith | Inside Linebacker |  Carolina Panthers | |
| 2018 | R7.37 | Austin Proehl | Wide Receiver |  Buffalo Bills | |
| 2017 | R1.02 | Mitchell Trubisky | Quarterback |  Chicago Bears | Estimated |
| 2017 | R3.38 | Nazair Jones | Defensive Tackle |  Seattle Seahawks | |
| 2017 | R4.12 | Mack Hollins | Wide Receiver |  Philadelphia Eagles | |
| 2017 | R4.27 | Ryan Switzer | Wide Receiver |  Dallas Cowboys |
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | R5.36 | T.J. Logan | Running Back |  Arizona Cardinals | |
| 2017 | R7.24 | Elijah Hood | Running Back |  Oakland Raiders | |
| 2014 | R1.10 | Eric Ebron | Tight End |  Detroit Lions | Estimated |
| 2014 | R3.20 | Kareem Martin | Defensive End | Arizona Cardinals | recruited under Butch Davis |
| 2014 | R4.11 | Russell Bodine | Center |  Cincinnati Bengals | Estimated |
| 2014 | R4.28 | Tre Boston | Safety | Carolina Panthers | Estimated |
| 2014 | R7.10 | Jabari Price | Cornerback |  Minnesota Vikings | Estimated |
| 2013 | R1.07 | Jonathan Cooper | Offensive Guard | Arizona Cardinals | Estimated |
| 2013 | R1.28 | Sylvester Williams | Defensive Tackle |  Denver Broncos | recruited under Everett Withers |
| 2013 | R2.05 | Giovani Bernard | Running Back | Cincinnati Bengals | recruited under Butch Davis |
| 2013 | R3.27 | Brennan Williams | Offensive Tackle |  Houston Texans | recruited under Butch Davis |
| 2013 | R7.08 | Travis Bond | Offensive Guard | Minnesota Vikings | Estimated |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
No outlet on our list has written about him by name yet. His record is on Career.
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
7th-best North Carolina tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Followed Everett Withers (2011) · succeeded by Mack Brown (2019–2024).
| Season | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||
| Record | 8-4 | 7-6 | 6-7 | 11-3 | 8-5 | 3-9 | 2-9 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | L bowl | — | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||
| OC | — | — | Chris Kapilovic / Gunter Brewer / Seth Littrell | Gunter Brewer / Seth Littrell | Chris Kapilovic / Gunter Brewer | Chris Kapilovic / Gunter Brewer | Chris Kapilovic | |
| DC | — | — | Dan Disch / Ron West | Gene Chizik | Gene Chizik | John Papuchis | John Papuchis | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||
| Offense | 92 | 63 | 54 | 99 | 82 | 28 | 37 | |
| Defense | 60 | 63 | 0 | 18 | 48 | 39 | 33 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.0 | 44.7 | 47.0 | 41.5 | 46.4 | 43.0 | 45.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 44.3 | 35.6 | 32.2 | 39.6 | 45.3 | 39.5 | 34.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 26.5 | 23.7 | 41.0 | 18.4 | 31.6 | 51.6 | 25.0 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
4th-best Southern Miss tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Jeff Bower (1990–2007) · succeeded by Ellis Johnson (2012).
| Season | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 7-6 | 7-6 | 8-5 | 12-2 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 85 | 73 | 76 | 82 | |
| Defense | 49 | 7 | 70 | 88 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 49.0 | 42.5 | 40.4 | 46.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 37.6 | 29.1 | 39.6 | 43.8 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 26.4 | 26.8 | 15.9 | 23.8 | |
3 NFL Draft picks: Shawn Nelson (2009), Gerald McRath (2009), Lamar Holmes (2012)
Was he good?
The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
+2.6 pts at Southern Miss · #518 of 1290 · middle halfModel fit as of 2026-09-04.