The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Rod Carey

Followed Geoff Collins. Rod Carey held Temple at National Program III for 3 seasons.

The builder
64–50
2012–2021 · 2 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Northern Illinois, 7 seasons
+3.2
National Program III → Regional Program I.
Temple, 3 seasons
−9.3
National Program III → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Northern Illinois2012–2018▲ 4.3ptTemple2019–2021▲ 0.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Northern Illinois6.3pt#207 of 258 · less than most
Temple4.2pt#234 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

9–2 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against John Bonamego.

Rivalry record
9–2
81.8% · 2 rivals
One-score games
25–14
64.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Ball State6–0100%
Toledo3–260%
The toughest matchup
vs. John Bonamego1–3
4 meetings, 2015–2018
’15 L · blew a 10-pt lead’16 L’17 L · blew a 17-pt lead’18 W · erased a 3-pt deficit
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
2–5 28.6%
National Program
8–17 32.0%
Regional Program
45–24 65.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.41
#283 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.11
#84 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2021
Templecaretaker
National Program III → National Program III
Rod Carey held Temple at National Program III for 3 seasons.

9th-best Temple tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-33.7 pts
#205 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-13.2 pts
#159 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Geoff Collins (2017–2018) · succeeded by Stan Drayton (2022–2024).

Season201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record8–51–63–9
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#105#97#104
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.645.950.1
Coordinators
OCMike UremovichMike UremovichMike Uremovich
DCJeff KnowlesJeff KnowlesJeff Knowles
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense23117
Defense671718
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.642.752.1
Red-zone pass%44.747.434.4
4th-down go%opp. territory36.637.551.6
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
11
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
18
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-7
#112 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 226 lbs
across 10 of 11 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-3.0 lbs
#245 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: MI (2), NJ (2), FL (1), OH (1), IL (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
34.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
41.5
position-weighted
Net
-7.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: D'Wan Mathis (QB) from Georgia
Biggest loss: Kennique Bonner-Steward (QB) to Independence C.C.
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Running back
213 lbs
5′11″ avg · #171 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′2″ avg · #233 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
250 lbs
6′4″ avg · #199 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
299 lbs
6′5″ avg · #707 of 779 · less than most
D-line
284 lbs
6′3″ avg · #377 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #470 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #408 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
200 lbs
6′0″ avg · #102 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2019: Lost to North Carolina 13–55 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman

7 NFL Draft picks: Rock Ya-Sin (2019), Ryquell Armstead (2019), Michael Dogbe (2019), Matt Hennessy (2020), Harrison Hand (2020), Shaun Bradley (2020), Chapelle Russell (2020)

12–20
2012–2018
Northern Illinoiscaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Rod Carey moved Northern Illinois from National Program III to National Program II in 7 seasons.

1st-best Northern Illinois tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-11.2 pts
#154 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+16.5 pts
#46 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Thomas Hammock (2019–2025).

Season2012201320142015201620172018Trend
Record & result
Record12–112–211–38–65–78–58–6
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#98#83#112#97#93
Style — pass rate
Pass rate35.938.642.242.140.2
Coordinators
OCBob ColeBob ColeMike UremovichMike UremovichMike Uremovich
DCJay NiemannJay NiemannKevin KaneKevin KaneJeff Knowles
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7521691820
Defense437358678
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%34.034.334.440.639.2
Red-zone pass%31.424.835.242.130.6
4th-down go%opp. territory20.438.637.526.820.9
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Bob Cole → Mike Uremovich · 2016the system held
48th pct44th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 34.1% → 37.5% (+3.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 86% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Jay Niemann → Kevin Kane · 2016the system held
58th pct45th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Kevin Kane → Jeff Knowles · 2018
86th pct78th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Marshall 23–52 Boca Raton Bowl2015: Lost to Boise State 7–55 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2017: Lost to Duke 14–36 Quick Lane Bowl2018: Lost to UAB 13–37 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Chandler Harnish (2012), Jimmie Ward (2014), Ken Bishop (2014), Da'Ron Brown (2015), Kenny Golladay (2017), Max Scharping (2019), Sutton Smith (2019)

52–30