The Zeitgeist List · coaching

John Bonamego

Followed Dan Enos. John Bonamego slid Central Michigan from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

22–29

2015–2018 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Central Michigan, 4 seasons

−1.5

Regional Program II → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Central Michigan9.3pt#144 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Jason Candle.

Rivalry record

3–5

37.5% · 2 rivals

One-score games

10–7

58.8% · margin ≤8

Rivalry ledger

Western Michigan1–325%

Eastern Michigan2–250%

The toughest matchup

vs. Jason Candle0–3

3 meetings, 2016–2018

’16 L’17 L’18 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

1–3 25.0%

National Program

3–7 30.0%

Regional Program

14–16 46.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.45

#292 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.20

#61 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–2018

Central Michigancaretaker

Regional Program III → Regional Program II

John Bonamego slid Central Michigan from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

6th-best Central Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-18.6 pts

#174 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

+22.0 pts

#27 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Dan Enos (2010–2014) · succeeded by Jim McElwain (2019–2024).

Season	2015	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	7–6	6–7	8–5	1–11
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#97	#107	#93	#119
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	54.1	53.6	50.8	44.8
Coordinators
OC	Morris Watts	Morris Watts	Chris Ostrowsky	Chris Ostrowsky
DC	Greg Colby	Greg Colby	Greg Colby	Greg Colby
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	41	29	27	0
Defense	61	42	80	79
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	51.9	51.0	46.0	38.3
Red-zone pass%	48.6	39.4	38.1	32.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	23.1	22.2	25.9	24.1

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Morris Watts → Chris Ostrowsky · 2017the offense slipped

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 51.4% → 42.1% (-9.3 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 65% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2015: Lost to Minnesota 14–21 Quick Lane Bowl2016: Lost to Tulsa 10–55 Miami Beach Bowl2017: Lost to Wyoming 14–37 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: L.T. Walton (2015), Kavon Frazier (2016), Tyler Conklin (2018), Sean Bunting (2019), Xavier Crawford (2019)

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