The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Buffalo 38%, Eastern Michigan 44%, Ball State 50%
Win out 7% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
Central Michigan's chance to win each game left, from our model: Eastern Michigan 44%, Sacramento State 78%, Buffalo 38%, Ball State 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 60% to 31%, peaking at 67% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 10th in the Mid-American · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Angel H Flores 475 · Rushing Angel H Flores 618 · Receiving Langston Lewis 379 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #120 | #73 | +11.5✗ −19.5 | @New Mexico | L 7-38 117 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Glasser 16 · Rush Flores 27 · Rec Williams 11 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #120 | #208 | −18.5✗ −15.5 | Colgate | W 13-10 125 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Flores 57 · Rush Flores 122 · Rec Blue 29 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #131 | #129 | +1.5✓ +15.5 | Wyoming | W 24-10 125 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Flores 32 · Rush Flores 163 · Rec Foster 13 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #131 | #9 | +41.5✗ −7.5 | @Miami | L 3-52 119 Roaring | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Glasser 88 · Rush Woodford 21 · Rec Vanderleest 24 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #130 | #91 | −6.5✓ +17.5 | Akron | W 41-17 130 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Flores 78 · Rush Flores 154 · Rec Lewis 71 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #119 | #62 | +2.5✗ −14.5 | @Ohio | L 14-31 124 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Flores 112 · Rush Woodford 27 · Rec Naves 56 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #119 | #39 | +7.5✓ +0.5 | Western Michigan | L 14-21 125 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Flores 162 · Rush Flores 117 · Rec Lewis 74 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #123 | #98 | +3.5✓ +2.5 | Miami (OH) | L 27-28 129 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Glasser 221 · Rush Clerveaux 32 · Rec Lewis 163 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | #127 | #135 | +1.5 | Eastern Michigan (N) | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN244% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 11 | #129 | #211 | Sacramento State | time TBA · ESPNU78% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Buffalo | time TBA38% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Ball State | 12 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Central Michigan, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Central Michigan: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Miami (OH) | L 27-28 | 285 | 0 | 28:48 | +0.053 | 37.7% | 1.06 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Western Michigan | L 14-21 | 337 | 1 | 30:16 | +0.024 | 41.3% | 1.17 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Ohio | L 14-31 | 275 | 1 | 26:04 | -0.126 | 37.9% | 1.11 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Akron | W 41-17 | 481 | 1 | 29:20 | +0.447 | 50.0% | 1.44 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Miami | L 3-52 | 158 | 3 | 28:50 | -0.098 | 25.5% | 1.47 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Wyoming | W 24-10 | 371 | 0 | 35:48 | +0.294 | 50.8% | 1.02 | Best success rate |
| Sep 12 | Colgate | W 13-10 | 276 | 3 | 32:41 | -0.081 | 33.3% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | @New Mexico | L 7-38 | 149 | 2 | 22:31 | -0.052 | 26.5% | 1.27 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (8 games) | 292 | 1.4 | +0.058 | 37.9% | 1.22 | ||||
Central Michigan's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season marks the start of a new era for Central Michigan, which last won MAC titles in 2009 under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones.
Statusdeveloping
Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season and Central Michigan's #125 talent rank highlight a program still searching for its identity after a decade without a MAC title.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Central Michigan · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 4%; 4 wins 22%; 5 wins 40%; 6 wins 28%; 7 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 20 of 404 board posts (5%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Central Michigan won three MAC titles in four years under two coaches who both left for major-conference jobs, and produced an NFL star in Antonio Brown along the way -- a program that keeps building things other people get to keep.
Central Michigan fans watched Brian Kelly and Butch Jones build their national coaching reputations here before cashing out at bigger programs -- and watched Antonio Brown become an NFL star after…
Central Michigan · Game-day weather
Typical at Kelly/Shorts Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Central Michigan won MAC titles in 2006, 2007, and 2009 under coaches Brian Kelly and Butch Jones -- both of whom left for bigger jobs -- fielding a 2009 title team led by Dan LeFevour and Antonio Brown, and just opened a new era with Army import Matt Drinkall, who went 7-6 in his 2025 debut season.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
16th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Matt Drinkall's 7-6 debut season marks the start of a new era for Central Michigan, a program historically defined by MAC titles in the early 2000s.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Central Michigan · 2026