deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Donovan Hamilton is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Ball State
1-1Latest
Mid-American · Mike Uremovich, year 2 (5-9) · Scheumann Stadium · 22,500 · 10,390 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#130 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #134 (-25.0) · FPI #131
The marketLiberty by 14at Liberty · our model 28% Ball State · a number, not a pick
LastW 41–17 vs Stony Brook · Sat Sep 12 · Kamron Chamble 2 INT, 2 tackles
Nextat Liberty · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Williams Stadium (VA) · Liberty by 14 · series 0-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Ball State · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #161 | #4 | +51✗ | @Ohio State | L 3–56 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #145 | #176 | -13.5✓ | Stony Brook | W 41–17 68 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #160 | #97 | +14 | @Liberty | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #159 | #132 | @Kent State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Toledo | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Northwestern | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Bowling Green | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Sacramento State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | @Massachusetts | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | Buffalo | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 18 | @Ohio | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Central Michigan |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Stony Brook | W 41–17 | 482 | 1 | 33:07 | +0.283 | 40.0% | 154.5% | |
| Sep 5 | @Ohio State | L 3–56 | 165 | 1 | 28:22 | -0.242 | 21.0% | 130.5% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 324 | 1.0 | +0.020 | 30.5% | 142.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Ball State has won a MAC title in three different decades -- 1993, 1996, and a 2020 upset of ranked Buffalo -- and is starting over again under a first-year coach after a 4-8 2025.
Title DroughtSince 2020 · 6 yrs
Ball State's title runs get treated as isolated upsets rather than a program with real periodic championship pedigree -- three decades, three different eras, the same result. Fans see a pattern the re…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Ball State fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
Game feel46even gamescombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate3-1some dramain one-score games (4 of 12)7th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin-14.0outgunnedavg scoring margin12th best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo61methodicaloffensive plays / game12th fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.31highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd8,968avg attendance11th biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Ball State has won one of its last five.
Cold. 4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Liberty · away
PoorRun-heavy, ground-controlExplosive, big-play
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#135 in field+100000
MAC title#12 in market+4500
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Ball State · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Ball State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Qian Magwood is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Ball State enters 2026 — the program's bottom-quintile returning production and 4-8 record under Mike Uremovich highlight a rebuilding phase with little margin for error in the Mid-American Conference.
what happenedBall State enters 2026 rated No. 132 in 2025 SP+ (-23.0). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
our readbackground
identitythis cycle~readnew
Mike Uremovich begins his tenure with a 4-8 losing record to inherit, reigniting a fanbase that last celebrated MAC titles in 1996.
what happenedBall State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Ball State enters 2025 at No. 132 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production and a 4-8 record under first-year coach Mike Uremovich test whether this rebuild can avoid another losing season.
what happenedBall State enters 2025 rated No. 132 in SP+ (-23.0). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
our readbackground
coaching2025 cycle~readnew
Uremovich begins with 8% production returning and a program that hasn't won a MAC title since 1996 — the cupboard is bare, but the identity of a team that once.
what happenedMike Uremovich took over as Ball State's head coach, replacing Mike Neu. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 9-year head coach Mike Neu (40-63)
our readdeveloping
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredBall State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downBall State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downBall State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Ball State · 2026
Outcome band · Ball State · 2026Ball State's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.
Floor 3-9Ceiling 8-5Base 5-7
0 wins13 wins
Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Ball State · Season outlook Confidence
Ball State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
Ball State enters 2026 rated No. 132 in 2025 SP+ (-23.0). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 25% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Ball State enters 2026 — the program's bottom-quintile returning production and 4-8 record under Mike Uremovich highlight a rebuilding phase with little margin for error in the Mid-American Conference.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Ball State enters 2026 rated No. 132 in 2025 SP+ (-23.0) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Ball State football wins big, but coach Mike Uremovich sees room to grow”
The Star Press · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Four takeaways from Ball State's win against Stony Brook”
ballstatedailynews.com · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Ball State football faces Stony Brook in 2026 home opener | Our best photos”
The Star Press · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards25% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 48 of 194 board posts (25%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hello, this is the first time I have ever posted on Reddit so I’m a little nervous. I am a first year grad student at ball state in the MSW program and have been having a difficult"
r/BallState ~ fan take
"I’m curious how most people at Ball State are paying for everything. Do you guys work part time, take out loans, get help from your parents, or a combination? I have a job offer at"
r/BallState ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Ball State · Developing Confidence
Ball State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Ball State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 25% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Mike Uremovich begins his tenure with a 4-8 losing record to inherit, reigniting a fanbase that last celebrated MAC titles in 1996.
Source of record: Ball State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Ball State football wins big, but coach Mike Uremovich sees room to grow”
The Star Press · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Four takeaways from Ball State's win against Stony Brook”
ballstatedailynews.com · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Ball State football faces Stony Brook in 2026 home opener | Our best photos”
The Star Press · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards25% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 48 of 194 board posts (25%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hello, this is the first time I have ever posted on Reddit so I’m a little nervous. I am a first year grad student at ball state in the MSW program and have been having a difficult"
r/BallState ~ fan take
"I’m curious how most people at Ball State are paying for everything. Do you guys work part time, take out loans, get help from your parents, or a combination? I have a job offer at"
r/BallState ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Northern Illinois
Mixed-3
Bronze Stalk Trophy
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Ball State won MAC titles in 1993 and 1996, then broke a 24-year drought in the COVID-shortened 2020 season by upsetting a nationally-ranked Buffalo 38-28 behind QB Drew Plitt -- and is now rebuilding again under first-year coach Mike Uremovich after a 4-8 2025.
Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Explosive, big-play
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025Hired Mike Uremovich
Roster
Roster Reload - Ball State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production6%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#113 nationally247 composite 563.9
Portal Additions24Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses18Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#113Depth class
WRin 4 - Jabari Smithout 3 - Ty RobinsonUpgrade
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Full roster (117 players)
DBAnthony Pinnace III, Avery Stuart, Cedric Franklin, Chris Jackson, Cole Earlewine, Deondre Shepherd, Derek Fields Jr., Donovan Lanier, Drew Bostic, Gabe Aramboles, Gavin Yates-Lyons, Jayden Bernavil, Jordan Suggs, Kamari Williams, Kamron Chamble, Micah Lillard, Quentavius Scandrett, Sebastian Moore, Sterling Smith, Stone Perkins, Tobi Adewoyin, Willizhuan Yates, Zyon Hill
DTAmeir Glenn, CJ Sanchez, Dominic Infelise, Joshua Coleman, Ka'Shawn Thomas, Keilan Smith, Kendrick Gilbert, Khristian Zachary, Lincoln Mason, Mason Holbrook, Michael Thacker, Myles Hancock, Reese Hill, Spencer Vaka
LBCarsen Burckhardt, Cincear Lewis, Cole Mynett, Gannon Knowles, Gavin Forsha, Jared Badie, Jovan Clark, Justin Thomas, Kaleb Stewart, Layton Starks, Lucas Szymborski, Mikeah Webster, Sam Feeney
OLBlake Scriber, Brady Barrowman, Brady Weber, CJ Zeltwanger, Chris Hood, Cole Mosier, Evan Downer, Grant Haworth, Jackson Ruess, Jacob Jeudy, Kaden Mayle, Luke Dalton, Michael Varon, Misael Sandoval, Nolan Cicero, Ryan Eldridge, Sam Spicer, Tristan Cook, Zach Bandy, Zion Haney
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Ball State
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Keldric Luster named Ball State QB1
5-foot-10, 250 pounds under center — Uremovich isn't hiding the identity here, Ball State's running a bruiser at QB and daring the MAC to stop it.
- News
Staff calls out photoshopped QB image
Uremovich's staff going public over a photoshopped QB image the week Ball State opens at No. 1 Ohio State — the optics couldn't be worse timed, and the program doesn't have the margin to look disorganized right now.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+12.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: +24.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)S-13.5
starter risk
EDGE+10.2
need filled
QB+7.0
need filled
WR+5.8
LB+5.4
IOL+4.7
DL+3.4
OT+3.4
low confidence
CB-1.7
TE-0.5
RB+0.2
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Tayshon Bardo
#966 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 20 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Mason Atkins
#1754 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Mark Hanniford
#1754 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
22
IN · 8IL · 4OH · 3FL · 2CA · 1GA · 1KS · 1KY · 1+1 more
IN leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 16 states, 2023-2026. IN leads the pull.
That is 12.6% of every high-school FBS signee IN produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Indiana is next. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Ball State player grew up 168 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
13th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%78–468 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi33%35 of 106 players
Farthest1,909 miLincoln Mason · Wilsonville, OR
Closest2 miCole Mynett · Muncie, IN
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Scheumann Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 106 of 117 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
77th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
3.5
Vegas O/U wins
(3rd among FBS)
(3rd among FBS)
Fans 74pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
Recovering 36% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~49% league rate.
4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 14 penalties committed vs. 14 drawn on opponents.
114 penalty yards committed vs. 117 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site