The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Central Michigan 50%
Win out 2% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
Ball State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Massachusetts 49%, Buffalo 42%, Ohio 19%, Central Michigan 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 24% to 23%, peaking at 35% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing7th in the Mid-American · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Keldric Luster 1,300 · Rushing TJ Horton 426 · Receiving Donovan Hamilton 310 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #161 | #4 | +50.5✗ −2.5 | @Ohio State | L 3-56 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Luster 89 · Rush Jackson 20 · Rec Durham 26 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #144 | #175 | −13.5✓ +10.5 | Stony Brook | W 41-17 68 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Luster 256 · Rush Horton 125 · Rec Smith 72 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #157 | #96 | +14.5✗ −21.5 | @Liberty | L 15-51 120 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Luster 93 · Rush Horton 79 · Rec Thacker 44 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #157 | #120 | +2.5✗ −10.5 | @Kent State | L 13-26 122 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Mizzell 164 · Rush Bonds 36 · Rec Hamilton 80 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #164 | #40 | +20.5✓ +5.5 | Toledo | L 24-39 148 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Luster 224 · Rush Horton 90 · Rec Hamilton 70 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #164 | #12 | +34.5✓ +3.5 | @Northwestern | L 14-45 133 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Luster 209 · Rush Cooper 15 · Rec Smith 64 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #166 | #136 | +6✓ +7 | @Bowling Green | W 32-31 125 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Luster 195 · Rush Luster 125 · Rec Nelson 59 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #157 | #239 | −14.5✓ +2.5 | Sacramento State | W 34-17 128 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Luster 234 · Rush Bonds 77 · Rec Thacker 65 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | #153 | #166 | +3.5 | @Massachusetts | 7 pm ET · ESPNU49% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 11 | #154 | #122 | Buffalo | time TBA42% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 17 | @Ohio | 7 pm ET19% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Central Michigan | 12 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Ball State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Ball State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Sacramento State | W 34-17 | 417 | 2 | 33:55 | +0.162 | 45.7% | 1.14 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Bowling Green | W 32-31 | 435 | 1 | 30:15 | +0.289 | 54.4% | 1.14 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | @Northwestern | L 14-45 | 360 | 1 | 33:59 | +0.041 | 40.0% | 1.18 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Toledo | L 24-39 | 370 | 2 | 25:40 | +0.047 | 37.7% | 1.51 | |
| Sep 26 | @Kent State | L 13-26 | 210 | 0 | 24:42 | +0.058 | 26.8% | 1.92 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | @Liberty | L 15-51 | 261 | 1 | 28:01 | +0.182 | 46.6% | 1.06 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | Stony Brook | W 41-17 | 482 | 1 | 33:07 | +0.264 | 40.0% | 1.54 | |
| Sep 5 | @Ohio State | L 3-56 | 165 | 1 | 28:22 | -0.242 | 21.0% | 1.30 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 338 | 1.1 | +0.100 | 39.0% | 1.35 | ||||
Ball State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last two.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Ball State coach criticizes CFP leaders.
Statusfront page
Range of outcomes · Ball State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 12%; 4 wins 35%; 5 wins 36%; 6 wins 15%; 7 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 47 of 210 board posts (22%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Ball State has won a MAC title in three different decades -- 1993, 1996, and a 2020 upset of ranked Buffalo -- and is starting over again under a first-year coach after a 4-8 2025.
Ball State's title runs get treated as isolated upsets rather than a program with real periodic championship pedigree -- three decades, three different eras, the same result. Fans see a pattern the…
Ball State · Game-day weather
Typical at Scheumann Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Ball State won MAC titles in 1993 and 1996, then broke a 24-year drought in the COVID-shortened 2020 season by upsetting a nationally-ranked Buffalo 38-28 behind QB Drew Plitt -- and is now rebuilding again under first-year coach Mike Uremovich after a 4-8 2025.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Ball State · 2026