Ball State at Massachusetts
Ball State (3‑5) at Massachusetts (4‑4) — Massachusetts is favored by 3.5. Massachusetts’s passing offense is at the 61st percentile; Ball State’s pass defense is at the 4th.
How they got here
Last three games
Ball State · 3-5
Rated 161st in our preseason ratings, 153rd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Bowling Green as a 6-point underdog.
Last three games
Massachusetts · 4-4
Rated 258th in our preseason ratings, 166th now, up 92 spots.
Three straight losses.
Biggest mismatch: Massachusetts’s passing EPA against Ball State, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Massachusetts’s passing EPA against Ball State’s defense
Massachusetts offense, 61st percentile · Ball State defense, 4th
Massachusetts’s EPA/play against Ball State’s defense
Massachusetts offense, 55th percentile · Ball State defense, 5th
Massachusetts’s explosive plays against Ball State’s defense
Massachusetts offense, 34th percentile · Ball State defense, 8th
What’s at stake
Ball State
- Ball State needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 39% to get there with a win here, 7% with a loss.
- Ball State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2020.
Massachusetts
- Massachusetts needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 25% to get there with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Massachusetts is still shaking off a 19-point loss.
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 1984 · Ball State won the last meeting
- 2015Ball State 20-10
- 2014Massachusetts 24-10
- 1988Ball State 44-17
- 1984Massachusetts 26-10
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Ball State
The chip · vs the national mediaBall State's title runs get treated as isolated upsets rather than a program with real periodic championship pedigree -- three decades, three different eras, the same result. Fans see a pattern the rest of the sport treats as a coincidence.
What this game touches
The long gaps between titles. 24 years passed between the 1996 and 2020 MAC titles. The program's identity is built on real championship pedigree, but also on long stretches of irrelevance in between -- 2025's 4-8 start under a new coach is the latest reminder of how far apart the good years can be.
Massachusetts
The chip · vs the national mediaOutsiders ask why UMass is even at this level — and the fanbase answers that running football at a flagship has always meant explaining itself to people who'd rather it disappear, and showing up anyway.
What this game touches
The winless return. UMass went 0-12 in 2025, Joe Harasymiak's first year and the program's first full season back in the MAC after the long independent stretch — a hard floor for a roster rebuilding from the ground up, played in the program's signature small-stadium intimacy at McGuirk.
Best players
Ball State
- Kaleb Stewart (LB) · 37 tackles
- Gavin Forsha (LB) · 36 tackles
- Stu Smith (DB) · 36 tackles
Massachusetts
- Timmy Hinspeter (LB) · 52 tackles
- Kendall Bournes (S) · 51 tackles
- Tyler Martin (LB) · 48 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Massachusetts fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (82nd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 51%
- Line · 61%
- Massachusetts fans · 82nd
- Ball State fans · 56th
Massachusetts favored by 3.5 · Total 49.5
Massachusetts by 3.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Massachusetts’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 7:30 pm Saturdays 86
Ball State at Massachusetts · Wednesday, Nov. 4 · 7 pm ET · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 86.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 86, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Massachusetts is worth +4.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.
12% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (4-30 home, 5-46 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.9 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 684 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Massachusetts
- Wk 4Wat Sacramento State35-6
- Wk 5Lvs Eastern Michigan14-38
- Wk 6Lvs Miami (OH)19-20
- Wk 7Lat Buffalo18-25
- Wk 8Lat UConn16-35
Ball State
- Wk 4Lat Kent State13-26
- Wk 5Lvs Toledo24-39
- Wk 6Lat Northwestern14-45
- Wk 7Wat Bowling Green32-31
- Wk 8Wvs Sacramento State34-17
Power rating by week
Ball State is rated 0.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Ball State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −4.5 → −3.5 · Total: 48.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Massachusetts11th1-3
- Ball State7th2-2