Northwestern football 2026: schedule, results, rankings

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: No. 11 Ohio State 32%, No. 21 Iowa 59%

Win out 12% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 4% to 6%, peaking at 14% before a game

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Aidan Chiles 1,898 · Rushing Caleb Komolafe 618 · Receiving Griffin Wilde 761 All player stats

The nationCoaches #23week 10 poll

The model#10 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #20 (+13.7) · FPI #24

The marketNorthwestern by 2.5Betting line vs Iowa · our model 59% Northwestern

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Northwestern:athletics siteBig TenXInstagram

Northwestern · 2026 schedule and results6-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 50% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #14 to #12

Wk	Date	Our rank	Opp rank	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf	Top performers
1	Sep 5	#14	#105	−14✓ +2	South Dakota State	W 34-18 143	1-0	0-0	Pass Chiles 273 · Rush Himon II 87 · Rec Wilde 104
2	Bye week
3	Sep 19	#11	#142	−3.5✓ +30.5	Colorado	W 41-7 135	2-0	0-0	Pass Chiles 241 · Rush Komolafe 49 · Rec Wilde 85
4	Sep 25	#15	#6	+20.5✓ +14.5	@Indiana	L 23-29 126 Loud	2-1	0-1	Pass Chiles 293 · Rush Sawchuk 26 · Rec Dehnicke 140
5	Oct 2	#13	#32	+3✓ +24	Penn StateTop 25 win	W 34-13 132	3-1	1-1	Pass Chiles 93 · Rush Komolafe 188 · Rec Wilde 36
6	Oct 10	#12	#164	−34.5✗ −3.5	Ball State	W 45-14 133	4-1	1-1	Pass Chiles 272 · Rush Komolafe 44 · Rec Wilde 144
7	Oct 17	#14	#132	−7.5✗ −4.5	@Michigan State	W 24-21 128 Loud	5-1	2-1	Pass Chiles 226 · Rush Komolafe 67 · Rec Wilde 57
8	Oct 24	#16	#91	−15.5✓ +12.5	Rutgers	W 42-14 132	6-1	3-1	Pass Chiles 219 · Rush Komolafe 150 · Rec Wilde 133
9	Oct 31	#12	#9	+4✗ −4	@Oregon	L 26-34 133	6-2	3-2	Pass Chiles 281 · Rush Chiles 93 · Rec Wilde 146
10	Nov 7	#10	#17	−2.5	Iowa	7:30 pm ET · FOX59% to win
11	Nov 14	#10	#2		@Ohio State	time TBA32% to win
12	Nov 21				@Minnesota	time TBA74% to win
13	Nov 28			+3.5	Illinois	time TBA

How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Northwestern, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Northwestern: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Big plays (IsoPPP)	Note
Oct 31	@Oregon	L 26-34	456	0	35:54	+0.251	45.3%	1.25	One-score loss
Oct 24	Rutgers	W 42-14	502	1	33:15	+0.436	55.2%	1.42	Best defensive stand
Oct 17	@Michigan State	W 24-21	360	0	34:55	+0.226	44.6%	1.41	One-score win
Oct 10	Ball State	W 45-14	436	0	26:01	+0.493	51.8%	1.52	Season-high EPA/play
Oct 2	Penn State	W 34-13	506	1	36:05	+0.246	55.7%	1.18	Best success rate
Sep 25	@Indiana	L 23-29	325	0	25:13	+0.254	39.7%	1.45	Defense's roughest night
Sep 19	Colorado	W 41-7	423	1	36:53	+0.215	48.0%	1.04	Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5	South Dakota State	W 34-18	497	0	25:52	+0.480	50.9%	1.49
Season average (8 games)			438	0.4		+0.325	48.9%	1.35

Northwestern's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast

Season line7.5 winsover -186

Offense eliteRun-heavy, ground-controlDefense strong

Season expectations

Win total2 booksOver/under 7.5

CFP championship#68 in field+22,112

Big Ten title#16 in market+6,000

Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

L 26-34 at Oregon

Northwestern fans

r/CFB

“They had me in the first half :(”

3d ago

r/CFB

“I know we were road underdogs, but I can't help but feel like we blew it. Defense forgot how to tackle and let a two TD lead slip away, a couple very untimely…”

3d ago

W 42-14 vs Rutgers

Northwestern fans

r/CFB

“The big test will be the next three weeks, if we win two of three and finish the season strong we have a serious shot at the playoffs.”

1w ago

r/CFB

“I had to sell my tickets (at a huge loss) due to a legit family emergency. So I get to watch on The 'Cock.”

1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7AP #21 Iowavs Iowa · at home

Sat Nov 14AP #11 Ohio Stateat Ohio State · on the road

Sat Nov 28Land of Lincoln Trophyvs Illinois · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Northwestern has won four of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3

Well, tough loss. We didn’t coach well enough, we didn’t play well enough against a good football team

Schiano · On3Oct 27, 20263 days after Northwestern's 2026 game against Rutgers

Playoff chance, day by day

6% now · ▼ 8 points in the last week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

What a title game and a playoff run could add

Floor8-5A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.

Base10-3A bowl game.

Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

Typical at Ryan Field: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 89

This game is at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Ryan Field, Northwestern's home stadium.

noon: 89, Mixed
3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
7:30 pm: 87, Mixed

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.

The experience

Northwestern is the Big Ten academic-elite program whose Pat Fitzgerald era produced 5 division titles + 2 Big Ten title games, and whose 2023 firing + Lake Michigan lakefront stadium era defined what Big Ten survival looks like.

Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Strong

Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Program ledgerLatest: Fell out of the AP Top 25 (2026, week 10)

The program ledger

since 2025

2026 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 26-34 at Oregonwas No. 20
2026 · Wk 9Climbed to No. 20 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 42-14 at home over Rutgers↑4 · from No. 24
2026 · Wk 7Entered the AP Top 25Week 6 · Won 45-14 at home over Ball Stateat No. 25

Roster and recruiting

Roster88% of production back, talent #60

Roster reload: Northwestern

2026 snapshot, Nov 4

Returning Production88%High continuity

Talent Composite#60 nationally247 composite 688.3

Portal Additions17Primary repair: QB

Portal Losses8Primary pressure: S

Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)

Recruiting Reload#52Development class

OTin 3 - Grant Seagren3.60out 2 - Hayden Wright3.49Upgrade

RBin 2 - Gavin Sawchuk3.60out 1 - Dashun Reeder3.40Even

current room: 204 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Balanced Backdoes a little of everything without one standout trait

Third program

CBin 2 - Brenden Deasfernandes3.70out 1 - Evan Smith3.60Upgrade

current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Centerfielder2025 profileerases the deep middle of the field

Transferred in

TEin 2 - Luke Dehnicke3.80out 1 - Hunter Welcing4.12Upgrade

current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)

EDGEin 2 - Dominic Kirks3.60out 1 - Anto Saka4.25Upgrade

QBin 2 - Aidan Chiles4.00out 0Need Filled

current room: 215 lbs avg (2025 roster)

ScramblerMoney-downextends plays on the move until something opens up saves his best for the money downs

Third program

Full roster (144 players)

UNKMontae Pate

DEDominic Kirks

EDGEJamaal Johnson

LBAmare Jordan, Braydon Brus, Jack Sadowsky, Jason Reynolds II, Josh Veldman, Kobie McKinzie, Lincoln Creager, Mac Uihlein, Matthew Smith, Max Mohring, Miles Crutchley, Nathaniel Campbell, Nigel Glover, Parker Maiers, Payton Roth, Qayvier Johnson, Yanni Karlaftis

LSEvan Boutorwick, Jack Florentine, Liam Reardon

PMarko Dubak, Nikola Dugandzic

PKHenry Helms, Jackson Kleather, Noah Sur

QBAidan Chiles, Aidan Gray, Gavin Frakes, Johnny O'Brien, Marcus Romain, Nicco Marchiol, Preston Stone, Ryan Boe, Sean Winton

RBAlbert Kunickis III, Caleb Komolafe, Cam Porter, Daniel Anderson, Gavin Sawchuk, Joseph Himon II, Mar'Kel Porter, Ronny Johnson, Sean Morris II

TEAlex Honig, Alex Lines, Blake Van Buren, Camp Magee, Chris Petrucci, Lawson Albright, Luke Dehnicke, Noah Laporte, Patrick Schaller, Robby Preckel, Tom McGlinchey, Tyler Kielmeyer

WRBraden Blueitt, Brennan Saxe, Cam Russell, Carson Grove, Chase Farrell, Drew Wagner, Dube Enongene, Frank Covey IV, Griffin Wilde, Hayden Eligon II, Jaden McDuffie, Keaton Reinke, Ricky Ahumaraeze, Tate Crane

Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class

★★★☆☆

RJ Day

QB · Columbus, OH

#1828 national

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Northwestern 38-17

1,033 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 61% of FBS programs

→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

61st percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.

Fan vs. market≈

61^st

Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)

7.5

Sportsbook win total
(57^th among FBS)

Fan mood aligned with market consensus

Win total consensus · 2 books

Where voters differAP voters range from #20 to #25 (week 9)

Voter spread

28 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #20, Brian Howell (On3), to #25, Randy Johnson (Minneapolis Star Tribune). 42 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

Rivals

Rival pulse

Illinois

Mixed

Land of Lincoln Trophy

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Northwestern

Athletics siteNorthwestern Athletics
Athletics siteNorthwestern football on the athletics site
Conference pagebigten.org football
On X@NU_Sports
On Instagram@NU_Sports

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

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