Next game: vs Iowa
Northwestern’s best edge on Iowa is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Northwestern offense against Iowa defense
Iowa offense against Northwestern defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.53 EPA/play | — | 8 | 139 / 202 | 68.8 | 1898 #31 FBS | 9.4 | 13 #41 FBS | 1 | 168.0 | 71 | 78.1 | 9.2 | 7.3 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #8 right now. This week's matchup — QB Chiles extends plays on the move until something opens up. Sayin is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage29.9% 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt9.7 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aidan Chiles's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.20 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 104 | 618 #43 FBS | 5.9 | 5 | 56 | 19.4 | 17.5 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 104 carries and 15 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Komolafe hits the crease and outruns the angle. Jackson is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry6.3 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Caleb Komolafe's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.32 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 43 | 384 | 8.9 | 3 | 80 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 43 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB II hits the crease and outruns the angle. Jackson is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry8.0 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.3 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joseph Himon II's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.09 EPA/play | 27 | 8 | 47 | 225 | 4.8 | 0 | 21 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 47 carries and 2 catches in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Sawchuk does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jackson is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry5.0 bottom 41th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Gavin Sawchuk's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +1.11 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 44 | 761 #14 FBS | 17.3 | 5 #39 FBS | 71 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Starter — 44 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Wilde beats you over the top. Smith is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Griffin Wilde's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.36 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 30 | 261 | 8.7 | 2 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 30 catches and 5 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Wagner moves the chains on third down. Smith is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception9.2 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.4 bottom 34th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Drew Wagner's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.93 EPA/play | 84 | 4 | 14 | 251 | 17.9 | 0 | 41 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. This week's matchup — TE Dehnicke creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Roberts is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception19.4 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 89th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Luke Dehnicke's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.82 EPA/play | 86 | 7 | 15 | 229 | 15.3 | 3 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 15 catches and 1 pass attempt in 7 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Honig creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Roberts is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception15.1 87th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate20.0% 87th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Alex Honig's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 8 | 4 | 6 | 79 | 13.2 | 0 | 23 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.37 EPA/play | 10 | 5 | 6 | 74 | 12.3 | 0 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 47 | 7 | 27 | 16 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 27 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.1% 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Michael Kilbane's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 54 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Gant's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 24 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.7% bottom 23th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jamaal Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 15 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Brendan Flakes's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 91 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 55 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 95 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 88 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 33 | 8 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 12.5 #6 FBS | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 68 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume68 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate18.4% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braydon Brus's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 8 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 55 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kobie McKinzie's full player page | |||||||||
| 32 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 51 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 5 | 45 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 45 tackles in 5 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Robert Fitzgerald's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 38 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.5% 64th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Montae Pate's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Damon Walters's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 8 | 34 | 7 #20 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.6% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ore Adeyi's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Jon Jon Stevens's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 26 tackles in 5 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.2% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Braden Turner's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 4 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate13.3% 77th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Alijah Jones's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 8 | 15/19 | 78.9 | 30/30 | 75 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 92 | 8 | 25 | 967 | 38.7 | 72 | 8 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.32 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 10 | 214 | 21.4 | 0 | 37 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.36 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 | 26 |
Biggest plays from Northwestern’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Northwestern’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern down 8, ties itAidan Chiles runs 1 yard for a touchdownNorthwestern at Michigan State, week 7Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern 21, Michigan State 21▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 touchdown A.Honig pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q4, 14:19 · Oregon down 3, takes the leadBrandon Smith runs 2 yards for a touchdownNorthwestern at Oregon, week 9Q4, 14:19 · Oregon 27, Northwestern 23▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 52% to 74%▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 52% to 74%B.Smith rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NWN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q4, 10:20 · Oregon up 1Dylan Raiola finds Dakorien Moore for a 75-yard touchdownNorthwestern at Oregon, week 9Q4, 10:20 · Oregon 34, Northwestern 267575-yard touchdown pass7575-yard touchdown pass75-yard touchdown passD.Raiola pass complete short middle to D.Moore caught at ORE33, for 75 yards to the NWN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q1, 5:07 · Northwestern up 3Aidan Chiles runs 2 yards for a touchdownPenn State at Northwestern, week 5Q1, 5:07 · Northwestern 10, Penn State 0▲18%Northwestern’s chance to win, 62% to 80%▲18%Northwestern’s chance to win, 62% to 80%A.Chiles rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 9:21 · Northwestern up 2Joseph Himon II runs 38 yards for a touchdownPenn State at Northwestern, week 5Q2, 9:21 · Northwestern 17, Penn State 7Joseph Himon II's first 100-yard rushing game of 2026Joseph Himon II's first 100-yard rushing game of 2026Joseph Himon II 38 yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 0:47 · Michigan State down 3, takes the leadAlessio Milivojevic finds Bryson Williams for a 32-yard touchdownNorthwestern at Michigan State, week 7Q2, 0:47 · Michigan State 14, Northwestern 1032Bryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdown32Bryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdownBryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdownA.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to B.Williams caught at NU 00, for 32 yards to the NU 00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
How scary each game got
Northwestern lost at Oregon after being 91% to win; the closest win was at Michigan State, down to 8%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Northwestern during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Northwestern
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · NorthwesternBraydon Brus leads Northwestern with 68 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+11 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Northwestern fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Northwestern reads strongest in EPA / play (top 5%) and rushing EPA (top 5%); the crux lives in field position (O), where Northwestern sits at the 21st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Northwestern is worth +5.6 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 76th percentile of 133 programs
54% at home, 34% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22-19 home, 14-27 away). Interval ±4.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Northwestern has beaten the number by +1.3 more at home than away over 87 games. That is inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Ryan Field seats 35,000 and has averaged 60% full (21,095, 22 games reported). Visitors cover a median 342 miles to get here since 2018 — 49th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 28% of the 2026 roster (38 of 138 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 46 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downGriffin Wilde is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogHayden Eligon II produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Caleb Komolafe and Gavin Sawchuk split the carries (103/147 vs 44/147) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Griffin Wilde (WR) and Alex Honig (TE) split the targets (52/70 vs 18/70) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Northwestern actually scores
93rd percentile quality, 6th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Northwestern’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 93rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 96th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Northwestern hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
88th percentile success on standard downs, 88th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Northwestern by half
1st-half offense ranks 90th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 97th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Northwestern’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.33; 97th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.12. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.48 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Northwestern’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Northwestern’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 181-play sample) — mid-pack, 82 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Northwestern’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 204-play sample) — mid-pack, 73 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 75% of their own fumbles — running hot vs. the ~52% league rate.
6 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 16% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
8 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (41 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The penalty battle is a wash: 56 penalties committed vs. 51 drawn on opponents.
414 penalty yards committed vs. 419 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Northwestern
Most similar programs · NorthwesternReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 48°, between 40° and 59° in about 7 in 10 games (26 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 56°, and 8 in 10 ran between 31° and 74° (48 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.