Heisman / Players / Gavin Sawchuk /Florida State

Gavin Sawchuk

RB · Florida State · Jr · #27

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

486 RUSH YDS · 8 RUSH TD · 109 CARRIES

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Florida State → Northwestern for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Northwestern

2025Florida State

2026Northwestern

View Florida State career stats ↓

RB · FLORIDA STATE · ACC

Gavin Sawchuk

3
#27
5-11 | 202 lb
Littleton, CO

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 84th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#628

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025

1052022

7442023

1282024

4862025

+363%

Up 363% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★

#98 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2022–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class3

Jersey27

Measurements5-11 | 202 lb

HometownLittleton, CO

Primary teamFlorida State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 98 recruit

Composite rating 0.9583 HighSchool

Signed with Oklahoma 2022

Origin Valor Christian Littleton, CO, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2022	4-star \| 0.9583	No. 98 recruit \| HighSchool \| Oklahoma

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Northwestern 2026

Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Jan 19, 2026

Season	Move	Context
2026	Florida State -> Northwestern	3-star \| 0.8600 \| Immediate
2025	Oklahoma -> Florida State	3-star \| 0.8700 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#628Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#596Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Oklahoma

Composite

0.9583

#98 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 3 mentions

Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=3
National · n=1

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Rushing WEPA per carry

+0.230

EPA

P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries

National rank #9 of 66

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 88th

Why it matters

#9 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.230 EPA/carry on 103 carries.

Vs cohort

This player +0.230 (88th)

MODERATE · n=103 cohort 66

Also strong
Yards per carry#51 / 69
Rushing yards (total)#56 / 69

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 12g

486Rush yards

109Carries

8Rush TDs

Per game

40.5Rush yards

9Carries

1Rush TDs

Projected (13g)

526.5Rush yards

118Carries

9Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 486): needs 264/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 486): needs 514/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 486): needs 1,014/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 2/game over remaining 1.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 7/game over remaining 1.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 12/game over remaining 1.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Gavin Sawchuk's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Florida State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #628 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 14.7% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 98 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 607 486 rush | 121 rec | #168/735 (77th pct)

Rush TD 8 109 carries | #51/739 (93rd pct)

Yards/carry 4.5 Per-rush efficiency | #383/735 (48th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

Passing-game back

Rushing

CAR

109 81st

YDS

486 77th

YPC

4.5 48th

8 93rd

Receiving

REC

13 71st

YDS

121 77th

YPR

9.3 72nd

1 89th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 31-17vs Alabama	6	28	4.7	1	14
Wk 2	W 77-3vs East Texas A&M	8	35	4.4	2	11
Wk 4	W 66-10vs Kent State	11	97	8.8	2	40	Season-high 97 yds
Wk 5	L 38-46@ Virginia	17	74	4.4	1	13
Wk 6	L 22-28vs Miami	11	47	4.3	0	15
Wk 7	L 31-34vs Pittsburgh	14	71	5.1	0	33
Wk 8	L 13-20@ Stanford	20	70	3.5	0	9
Wk 10	W 42-7vs Wake Forest	6	10	1.7	2	5
Wk 11	L 10-24@ Clemson	1	1	1.0	0	1
Wk 12	W 34-14vs Virginia Tech	3	11	3.7	0	6
Wk 13	L 11-21@ NC State	8	35	4.4	0	7
Wk 14	L 21-40@ Florida	4	7	1.8	0	3
Total		109	486	4.0	8	40

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning, fast tempo

2023Oklahoma10-3HC: Brent Venables · Balanced

2024Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning

2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Florida State	109	486	4.5	8	--
2024	Oklahoma	39	128	3.3	1	--
2023	Oklahoma	120	744	6.2	9	--
2022	Oklahoma	17	105	6.2	1	--
Career	4 loaded seasons	285	1,463	5.1	19	--

Season	Team
2025	Florida State	13	121	9.3	1	--
2024	Oklahoma	8	28	3.5	0	--
2023	Oklahoma	14	94	6.7	0	--
2022	Oklahoma	1	8	8.0	0	--
Career	4 loaded seasons	36	251	7.0	1	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 13 121 rec yds | #160/552 (71st pct)

Usage 14.7% 22.2% rush share | #186/738 (75th pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.23 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #35/362 (91st pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	486	#168/735	77th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	8	#51/739	93rd pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	4.5	#383/735	48th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	13	#160/552	71st pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	121	#129/548	77th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.23	#35/362	91st pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 103 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	14.7%	#186/738	75th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	109	#140/739	81st pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	40	#233/733	68th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	53	#40/540	93rd pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	9.3	#152/548	72nd pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	1	#60/552	89th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	22.2%	#227/738	69th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	17.6%	#176/738	76th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	16.7%	#50/738	93rd pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	14.5%	#192/738	74th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	14.4%	#239/738	68th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	7.9%	#300/738	59th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	4.9%	#165/738	78th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#78/256	70th pct	Turnoversvs FBS RB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	42.7	4.7	1.0
Road5g	37.4	3.0	0.2

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Wins5g	36.2	4.7	1.4
Losses7g	43.6	3.5	0.1

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	58.7	5.3	1.0
Weeks 8+6g	22.3	2.7	0.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

54Mid-pack

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (84th).

Rush TDs#51 / 349 · 84th pct

8rush

Rec yards#120 / 338 · 64th pct

121rece

Carries#140 / 349 · 60th pct

109rush

Receptions#150 / 338 · 54th pct

13rece

Rush yards#168 / 349 · 52nd pct

486rush

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct

1fumb

Long run#204 / 349 · 41st pct

40rush

Yards / carry#227 / 349 · 33rd pct

4.5rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_rushing0.23High (p75–p90) (n=178)Elite (≥p90) (n=184)Elite (≥p90) (n=362)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Gavin SawchukFlorida StateTae MeadowsTroy· 83% simSeth McGowanKentucky· 82% simSire GainesBoise State· 78% sim

Rush TDs

84
Sawchuk

72
Meadows

94
McGowan

84
Gaines

Rec yards

64
Sawchuk

38
Meadows

67
McGowan

41
Gaines

Carries

60
Sawchuk

84
Meadows

85
McGowan

84
Gaines

Receptions

54
Sawchuk

45
Meadows

75
McGowan

45
Gaines

Rush yards

52
Sawchuk

74
Meadows

76
McGowan

82
Gaines

Fumbles lost

49
Sawchuk

49
Meadows

49
McGowan

14
Gaines

Long run

41
Sawchuk

53
Meadows

11
McGowan

51
Gaines

Yards / carry

33
Sawchuk

29
Meadows

29
McGowan

53
Gaines

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to TJ Green’s 2021 season.

TJ Green

74%match

Liberty · 2021

Nelson Smith

Navy · 2020

63%

Ulysses Bentley IV

SMU · 2020

All-AAC

66%

Jalen Buckley

Western Michigan · 2023

All-MAC

66%

Daijun Edwards

Georgia · 2021

61%

Matches TJ on

Receiving share

Class year

Yards / carry

Differs from TJ on

Rush TD rate (higher)

Yards / reception (higher)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Asim Rose’s path through Kentucky.

Asim Rose

94%match

Kentucky · 2020

Cooper Wallace

The Citadel · 2024

94%

Calvin Turner

Hawai'i · 2020

All-Mountain West

91%

Julius Loughridge

Fordham · 2024

91%

Corey Taylor II

Tulsa · 2020

91%

Matches Asim on

Yards per carry

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Camryn Edwards's senior season at UConn (2025).

Camryn Edwards

72%match

UConn · 2025

Thomas Castellanos

Florida State · 2025

All-ACC

64%

Ty Son Lawton

Indiana · 2024

67%

Frank Harris

UTSA · 2023

All-AAC

62%

Daijun Edwards

Georgia · 2023

65%

Matches Camryn on

Receiving share

Yards / carry

Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Norvell

Pass share

40.3%

339 pass / 502 run

Plays / game

70.1

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.5%

282 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach

2022

Mike Norvell

Florida State

2023

Mike Norvell

Florida State

2024

Mike Norvell

Florida State

2025

Mike Norvell

Florida State

Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.

HometownLittleton, CO

Height5'11"

Weight202 lb

Class3

PositionRB

Jersey27

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Oklahoma	RB3	#628	#596	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| SEC
2023	Oklahoma	RB3	#96	#87	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Big 12
2022	Oklahoma	RB3	#1357	#1358	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Florida State	ACC	RB	3	No. 27 \| 5-11 \| 202 lb \| Littleton, CO
2024	Oklahoma	SEC	RB	3	No. 27 \| 5-11 \| 202 lb \| Littleton, CO
2023	Oklahoma	Big 12	RB	3	No. 27 \| 5-11 \| 202 lb \| Littleton, CO
2022	Oklahoma	Big 12	RB	3	No. 27 \| 5-11 \| 202 lb \| Littleton, CO

Gavin Sawchuk

R07 · Impact starter

+363%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Gavin Sawchuk

How rival fanbases talk about Gavin Sawchuk

Rushing WEPA per carry

What made this player interesting

2025 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Balanced Back

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline