The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 25 Florida 25%
Win out 3% · expect 1.8 of 4 more wins
Florida State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Boston College 62%, Pittsburgh 36%, NC State 54%, Florida 25%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 64% to 29%, peaking at 66% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 16th in the ACC · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Ashton Daniels 1,968 · Rushing Ousmane Kromah 609 · Receiving Duce Robinson 438 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #82 | #150 | −30.5✗ −13.5 | New Mexico State | W 34-17 132 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Daniels 202 · Rush Kromah 115 · Rec Singleton 54 |
| 1 | Sep 7 | #82 | #15 | +3= | SMU | L 24-27 135 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Daniels 125 · Rush Kromah 116 · Rec Singleton 40 |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #92 | #20 | +18.5✓ +4.5 | @Alabama | L 36-50 130 Loud | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Daniels 377 · Rush Kromah 80 · Rec Robinson 135 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #90 | #207 | −45.5✗ −18.5 | Central Arkansas | W 34-7 121 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Daniels 224 · Rush Kromah 86 · Rec Boggs 122 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #86 | #38 | +1.5✓ +32.5 | Virginia | W 38-7 137 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Daniels 183 · Rush Daniels 136 · Rec Danzy 70 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | #59 | #50 | +4✗ −20 | @Louisville | L 20-44 135 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Daniels 209 · Rush Kromah 88 · Rec Danzy 50 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #63 | #7 | +20.5✓ +12.5 | @Miami | L 35-43 142 Firestorm | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Daniels 298 · Rush Wisner 63 · Rec Robinson 113 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #59 | #43 | −4.5✗ −16.5 | Clemson | L 24-36 138 | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Daniels 350 · Rush Wisner 43 · Rec Danzy 108 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #68 | #107 | −6.5 | @Boston College | 12 pm ET · ACC Network62% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 13 | #70 | #49 | @Pittsburgh | 7 pm ET · ESPN36% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | NC State | time TBA54% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | +4.5 | Florida | 3:30 pm ET · ABC | |||||
Win chances are our model for Florida State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Florida State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Clemson | L 24-36 | 415 | 4 | 25:49 | +0.058 | 41.3% | 1.34 | |
| Oct 17 | @Miami | L 35-43 | 443 | 2 | 22:40 | +0.059 | 35.4% | 1.45 | One-score loss |
| Oct 9 | @Louisville | L 20-44 | 362 | 1 | 31:18 | +0.035 | 44.2% | 1.15 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Virginia | W 38-7 | 464 | 1 | 31:51 | +0.329 | 50.0% | 1.15 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | Central Arkansas | W 34-7 | 417 | 1 | 20:48 | +0.464 | 53.1% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Alabama | L 36-50 | 471 | 3 | 27:52 | +0.173 | 40.9% | 1.87 | Most explosive |
| Sep 7 | SMU | L 24-27 | 324 | 1 | 32:16 | +0.194 | 37.3% | 1.44 | One-score loss |
| Aug 29 | New Mexico State | W 34-17 | 419 | 1 | 31:32 | +0.291 | 44.8% | 1.32 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 414 | 1.8 | +0.200 | 43.4% | 1.40 | ||||
Florida State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Each gold dot is a story from that week. Tap one to read it.
Range of outcomes · Florida State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 8%; 4 wins 31%; 5 wins 39%; 6 wins 19%; 7 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 49 of 17015 board posts (0%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (1182 posts): 17% positive · 42% neutral · 41% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Florida State went 13-0 in 2023 and got left out of the Playoff anyway — the first undefeated power-conference champion ever snubbed — and the program has been falling and clawing back from that betrayal ever since.
Fans will tell you the sport changed its own rules to keep them out — that a perfect season and a conference title weren't enough because the committee decided, in a back room, that the Seminoles…
Florida State · Game-day weather
Typical at Doak Campbell Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 78
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Florida State is the program whose ceiling people forget and whose floor people overrate.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Florida State · 2026