Florida State

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Mike Norvell addresses challenges ahead as Florida State enters pivotal seasonour readTexas Tech Adds Tommy Castellanos as Transfer QBour readThe Florida rivalry

ACC · Mike Norvell, year 7 (39-35) · Doak Campbell Stadium · 67,277 · 63,011 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#92 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #44 (+6.9) · FPI #37
The marketAlabama by 19.5at Alabama · our model 11% Florida State · a number, not a pick

LastL 24–27 vs SMU · Mon Sep 7 · Ashton Daniels 125 pass yds, 1 TD, 71 rush yds

Nextat Alabama · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama by 19.5 · series 2-3-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 1

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.0
Pts allowed/game
22.0
Total yards/gm#96 / 138 · 31st pct
371.5
Rush yards/gm#43 / 138 · 69th pct
208.0
Pass yards/gm#118 / 138 · 15th pct
163.5
Yards allowed/gm#121 / 138 · 13th pct
452.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#54 / 138 · 61st pct
101.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#17 / 115 · 81st pct
3
3rd-down convT-#101 / 138 · 26th pct
34.5%
All 90 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
743371.5/gm5.54/play#96 / 138 · 31st pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 17 · 21st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
904452.0/gm6.80/play#121 / 138 · 13th pct#68 / 69 · 2nd pct#16 / 17 · 9th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
416208.0/gm3.10/play#43 / 138 · 69th pct#24 / 69 · 66th pct#6 / 17 · 68th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
202101.0/gm1.52/play#54 / 138 · 61st pct#41 / 69 · 41st pct#9 / 17 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
8442.0/gmT-#32 / 138 · 76th pctT-#16 / 69 · 76th pctT-#2 / 17 · 88th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5427.0/gmT-#14 / 138 · 89th pctT-#9 / 69 · 85th pctT-#3 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 69 · 60th pctT-#5 / 17 · 71st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 69 · 88th pctT-#1 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
327163.5/gm2.44/play#118 / 138 · 15th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 17 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
702351.0/gm5.28/play#132 / 138 · 5th pct#68 / 69 · 2nd pct#16 / 17 · 9th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5025.0/gmT-#101 / 138 · 26th pctT-#57 / 69 · 17th pctT-#15 / 17 · 12th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7939.5/gm#124 / 138 · 11th pct#63 / 69 · 9th pct#15 / 17 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
2914.5/gmT-#111 / 138 · 19th pctT-#60 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
5226.0/gm#126 / 138 · 9th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#15 / 17 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
21.0/gmT-#94 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 69 · 19th pctT-#11 / 17 · 29th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#122 / 138 · 10th pctT-#67 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 17 · 9th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
114.1114.1#98 / 115 · 15th pct#55 / 59 · 8th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#11 / 13 · 23rd pct
Opp
158.8158.8#82 / 91 · 10th pct#41 / 41 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#7 / 17 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#110 / 138 · 16th pctT-#60 / 69 · 11th pct#14 / 17 · 21st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 69 · 22nd pctT-#10 / 17 · 32nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 69 · 30th pctT-#10 / 17 · 35th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
84.0/gmT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#58 / 69 · 15th pctT-#12 / 17 · 29th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 69 · 27th pctT-#11 / 17 · 29th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3618.0/gmT-#106 / 138 · 23rd pct#61 / 69 · 12th pct#16 / 17 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4120.5/gmT-#95 / 138 · 30th pctT-#59 / 69 · 14th pct#12 / 17 · 32nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
105.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 44th pctT-#42 / 69 · 35th pctT-#11 / 17 · 35th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
189.0/gmT-#130 / 138 · 4th pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#17 / 17 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2914.5/gmT-#34 / 138 · 72nd pctT-#13 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 17 · 79th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3115.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#55 / 69 · 18th pctT-#14 / 17 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#3 / 17 · 79th pct#11 / 13 · 23rd pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#4 / 17 · 59th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
52.5/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 69 · 75th pctT-#2 / 17 · 82nd pct#12 / 13 · 15th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#3 / 17 · 71st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
63:4831:54/gm#53 / 138 · 62nd pct#26 / 69 · 63rd pct#6 / 17 · 68th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
56:1228:06/gm#44 / 138 · 68th pct#26 / 69 · 63rd pct#6 / 17 · 68th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.52 EPA/play14229 / 5058.03276.521122.14076.75.47.4
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.31 EPA/play32236231
#14 FBS		6.42
#43 FBS		54——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.44 EPA/play—257515024
+0.44 EPA/play8266911.5044

2026 stat leaders · Florida State

through 2 games

Ousmane Kromah leads Florida State with 231 rushing yards through 2 games.

1. Ousmane Kromah RB 231 rushing yards
2. Chris Jones LB 15 tackles
3. Ashlynd Barker DB 15 tackles
4. Ja'Bril Rawls DB 14 tackles
5. Ma'Khi Jones DB 12 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Florida State fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
88th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
60% run plays
Defense
58th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
79th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Florida State · 2025

Florida State reads strongest in rushing epa (top 8%) and passing epa (top 10%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Florida State sits at the 52nd percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.30
88th
Success Rate +0.47
86th
Explosive Plays +1.37
89th
Rushing EPA +0.24
92nd

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.14
58th
Success Rate Allowed +0.40
61st
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
79th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.20
61st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.44
91st
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
53rd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 12 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Florida State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Florida State is worth +6.6 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 90th percentile of 133 programs

57% at home, 32% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (28–21 home, 12–25 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Florida State has beaten the number by +2.7 more at home than away over 70 games — inside the ±7.1 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Doak Campbell Stadium seats 67,277 and has averaged 97% full (65,557, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 485 miles to get here since 2018 — 59th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 10% of the 2026 roster (10 of 105 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.

Home28–21Away12–25Edge+6.6 ±4.3Visitor trip485 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Florida State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 85th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 92nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter…Competitive snaps only · 92nd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Florida State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

28th percentile success on standard downs, 65th on passing downs — a 37-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantFlorida StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Florida State by half

1st-half offense ranks 42nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 77th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 42nd pctile2nd half · 77th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Florida State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Tony White (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 36% → 2026: 32% · 4-pt range · #185 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 30% → 2026: 35% · 5-pt range · #186 of 200 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Florida State

CFB Zeitgeist

#92

-1.8

SP+

#44

+6.9

FPI

#37

+7.7

Elo

#49

1557

The national models put Florida State between 37th and 49th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 92nd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Florida State

Reads like

NebraskaBig TenSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontBYUBig 12Neighbouring tier · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontMiamiACCNeighbouring tier · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

76°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 81 home games with weather data.

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