Florida State beats New Mexico State 34-17
Team pages: New Mexico State · Florida State
Florida State beat New Mexico State 34-17. Share this game
We had Florida State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
Leave Norvell on the tarmac. I know the games in Tallahassee. Drive him to the airport and leave him there.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida State an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida State was a 30.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
Florida State led by 3 after the first quarter and by 10 at the half.
Favored the whole way: Florida State never fell below 95%.
New Mexico State never had better than a 4% chance.
Florida State 34-17 New Mexico State
Florida State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.New Mexico State 17-34 Florida StateNew Mexico State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 10:49NMSU scores on third down, sparking FSU fans to call for Norvell's firingQuoted at the top of the page.
Tony White is the Mike Norvell of defensive coordinators
r/CFB game thread - Q2 5:34Ashton Daniels throws an interception as fans mock Mike Norvell's coaching
how the hell Norvell beat Alabama I'll never know
r/CFB game threadI’m cool with firing Norvell and the entire staff after this game
r/CFB game thread - Q3 8:47FSU fans lament a dropped pass by Rawls that kills a scoring drive
That drop is the kind of thing that he will wake up in cold sweats in the middle of the night 30 years from now
r/CFB game thread - Q3 7:08Fans boo Florida State after Norvell calls a risky fourth down play against New Mexico State
I know this is a scorching hot take, but I don’t think Mike Norvell knows what he’s doing.
r/CFB game threadTIL that New Mexico St actually has a Nick Saban defense
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida State -30.5), at 98% for Florida State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Florida State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 8:13Hedden intercepted by Jones at the FSU00Q1, 8:13 · Florida State 0, New Mexico State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 14:15Daniels 4-yd TD runFlorida State leads 10-0Q2, 14:15 · Florida State 10, New Mexico State 010-0score after the play10-0score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 10:49Hedden 33-yd TD pass to Malone-Bradfordcuts it to 10-7Q2, 10:49 · Florida State 10, New Mexico State 710-7score after the play10-7score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q2, 0:36Daniels 4-yd TD pass to SingletonFlorida State leads 17-7Q2, 0:36 · Florida State 17, New Mexico State 717-7score after the play17-7score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q3, 2:09Singleton 2-yd TD runFlorida State leads 24-10Q3, 2:09 · Florida State 24, New Mexico State 1024-10score after the play24-10score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
- Q4, 7:42Hedden 34-yd TD pass to Kingcuts it to 27-17Q4, 7:42 · Florida State 27, New Mexico State 1727-17score after the play27-17score after the play▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
Every drive
Florida State scored on 6 of its 10 drives; New Mexico State on 3 of its 10.
Florida State’s drives are teal, New Mexico State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“That drop was devastating. That might haunt him the rest of his life, gd”
When fans got loud
Busy
It was the third quarter that had fans talking the most.
The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.
Box score
Florida State 34, New Mexico State 17
New Mexico State covered +30.5 by 13.5. The total, 51, stayed under 53.5.
| Team totals | New Mexico State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 319 | 419 |
| Passing | 26 of 43, 272 yds | 17 of 27, 202 yds |
| Rushing | 23 for 47 yds | 39 for 217 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 20 |
| Third down | 10 of 17 | 8 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 8 for 68 yds | 7 for 65 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:28 | 31:32 |
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Trey Hedden 26 of 42, 272 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing James Jones 11 for 28 yds; Dijon Stanley 4 for 17 yds
- Receiving Brodrick Malone 6 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Tyler King 7 for 78 yds, 1 TD
Florida State leaders
- Passing Ashton Daniels 17 of 27, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Ousmane Kromah 14 for 115 yds, 1 TD; Samuel Singleton 9 for 42 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Samuel Singleton 4 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Micahi Danzy 4 for 51 yds
No rain through the game
83° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Game-day temperatures at Doak Campbell Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Tallahassee Rgnl airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
New Mexico State · 4-8
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings.
L 24-31 vs Middle Tennessee #177 of 667
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 34-31 @ UTEP #184 of 667
won by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 9-42 @ TennesseeTop 25 #11 of 667
lost by 33 as a 41.5-point underdog
L 21-24 vs Kennesaw State #111 of 667
lost by 3 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 16-35 @ Western Kentucky #106 of 667
lost by 19 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 17-24 vs Missouri State #126 of 667
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 27-30 @ Liberty #119 of 667
lost by 3 as an 11.5-point underdog
W 37-10 vs Sam Houston #177 of 667
won by 27 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 20-38 @ New Mexico #100 of 667
lost by 18 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 14-49 @ Louisiana Tech #129 of 667
lost by 35 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 21-14 vs Tulsa #140 of 667
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 19-3 vs Bryant #207 of 667
won by 16 as a 19.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida State · 5-7
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings.
L 21-40 @ FloridaTop 25 #38 of 667
lost by 19 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 11-21 @ NC State #55 of 667
lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 34-14 vs Virginia Tech #84 of 667
won by 20 as a 13.5-point favorite
L 10-24 @ ClemsonTop 25 #23 of 667
lost by 14 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 42-7 vs Wake Forest #60 of 667
won by 35 as a 12.5-point favorite
L 13-20 @ Stanford #99 of 667
lost by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 31-34 vs PittsburghTop 25 #43 of 667
lost by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite
L 22-28 vs MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667
lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 38-46 @ VirginiaTop 25 #43 of 667
lost by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 66-10 vs Kent State #233 of 667
won by 56 as a 45.5-point favorite
W 77-3 vs East Texas A&M #226 of 667
won by 74 as a 43.5-point favorite
W 31-17 vs AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667
won by 14 as a 13.5-point underdog
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Florida State, 65 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Florida State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 88th percentile · Florida State defense, 23rd
Florida State’s rushing EPA against New Mexico State’s defense
Florida State offense, 83rd percentile · New Mexico State defense, 44th
Florida State’s EPA/play against New Mexico State’s defense
Florida State offense, 75th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 50th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Florida State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 1964 · Florida State won the last meeting
- 1964Florida State 36-0
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico State fans are in a better mood than Florida State fans (98th vs 10th among FBS fanbases), even with Florida State favored.
- Model · 80%
- Line · 99%
- Florida State fans · 10th
- New Mexico State fans · 98th
Florida State favored by 30.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Florida State by 30.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Florida State.
Spread: −28.5 → −30.5
The books’ cut: 3.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Florida State is worth +7.2 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile.
58% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 12-28 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,327 miles to get here.