The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Lamar 3%, Incarnate Word 9%, Nicholls 63%
Win out <1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
East Texas A&M's chance to win each game left, from our model: Nicholls 63%, Lamar 3%, Incarnate Word 9%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Eric Rodriguez 628 · Rushing Quay Middlebrooks 421 · Receiving Micah Simpson 561 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Mercer | L 15-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Rodriguez 232 · Rush Oakmon 87 · Rec Simpson 165 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 7-44 | 0-2 | 0-1 | Pass Rodriguez 110 · Rush Middlebrooks 31 · Rec Simpson 58 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Northwestern State | W 38-14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | Pass Jacobs 165 · Rush Oakmon 78 · Rec Simpson 88 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Tulsa | L 0-42 141 | 1-3 | 1-1 | Pass Mooney 85 · Rush McBride 53 · Rec Simpson 41 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @McNeese | L 24-27 | 1-4 | 1-2 | Pass Rodriguez 232 · Rush Middlebrooks 84 · Rec Taylor 49 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 20-17 | 2-4 | 2-2 | Pass Glass 69 · Rush Middlebrooks 60 · Rec Sallis 29 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Houston Christian | L 24-43 | 2-5 | 2-3 | Pass Glass 237 · Rush Oakmon 103 · Rec Sallis 65 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Prairie View A&M | L 19-30 | 2-6 | 2-3 | Pass Mooney 333 · Rush Middlebrooks 36 · Rec Simpson 90 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | SE Louisiana | W 10-7 | 3-6 | 3-3 | Pass Mooney 89 · Rush Oakmon 98 · Rec Simpson 43 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Nicholls | 4 pm ET63% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Lamar | 4 pm ET3% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Incarnate Word | 4 pm ET9% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for East Texas A&M, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SE Louisiana | W 10-7 | — | — | — | −0.380 | 30.4% | 0.85 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Prairie View A&M | L 19-30 | — | — | — | +0.159 | 43.0% | 1.23 | |
| Oct 17 | @Houston Christian | L 24-43 | — | — | — | +0.007 | 38.8% | 1.27 | |
| Oct 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 20-17 | — | — | — | +0.035 | 37.7% | 1.07 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | @McNeese | L 24-27 | — | — | — | +0.245 | 42.0% | 1.42 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Tulsa | L 0-42 | 288 | 1 | 30:18 | −0.193 | 34.2% | 0.92 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Northwestern State | W 38-14 | — | — | — | +0.076 | 43.3% | 1.44 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 7-44 | — | — | — | +0.035 | 38.3% | 1.31 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 29 | @Mercer | L 15-23 | — | — | — | −0.076 | 34.7% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 288 | 1.0 | −0.010 | 38.1% | 1.21 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · East Texas A&M · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 32%; 4 wins 60%; 5 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
East Texas A&M is 3-6 and plays at Nicholls next.
East Texas A&M is 3-6 and plays at Nicholls next.
Range of outcomes · East Texas A&M · 2026