The rest of the season
Two real tests left: UT Rio Grande Valley 48%, McNeese 52%
Win out 21% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
Houston Christian's chance to win each game left, from our model: McNeese 52%, Northwestern State 84%, UT Rio Grande Valley 48%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Cutter Stewart 1,226 · Rushing Champ Dozier 423 · Receiving Jamaal Hall II 529 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @SE Louisiana | W 34-28 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Stewart 173 · Rush Stewart 95 · Rec Hall II 71 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Rice | L 3-31 138 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Stewart 61 · Rush Dozier 86 · Rec Hall II 27 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Arkansas Baptist | W 88-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Stewart 156 · Rush Drinkard 98 · Rec Hall II 117 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Incarnate Word | L 23-30 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass Kopp 166 · Rush Dozier 86 · Rec Wallace 85 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @North Texas | L 14-63 128 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Stewart 123 · Rush Kopp 29 · Rec Llanas-Wilcox 53 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Nicholls | W 16-2 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Stewart 173 · Rush Dozier 85 · Rec Hall II 59 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | East Texas A&M | W 43-24 | 4-3 | 3-1 | Pass Stewart 188 · Rush Stewart 110 · Rec Wallace 55 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Lamar | L 10-35 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass Stewart 116 · Rush Dozier 47 · Rec Llanas-Wilcox 32 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 6-37 | 4-5 | 3-3 | Pass Stewart 140 · Rush Harris 50 · Rec Hall II 112 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | McNeese | 5 pm ET52% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Northwestern State | 2 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 5 pm ET48% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Houston Christian, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 6-37 | — | — | — | −0.298 | 29.3% | 1.23 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 24 | @Lamar | L 10-35 | — | — | — | −0.257 | 38.9% | 0.66 | |
| Oct 17 | East Texas A&M | W 43-24 | — | — | — | +0.012 | 37.0% | 1.45 | |
| Oct 3 | Nicholls | W 16-2 | — | — | — | +0.008 | 31.9% | 1.20 | |
| Sep 26 | @North Texas | L 14-63 | 238 | 3 | 29:07 | −0.309 | 32.8% | 1.20 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Incarnate Word | L 23-30 | — | — | — | −0.013 | 35.1% | 1.03 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Arkansas Baptist | W 88-0 | — | — | — | +0.621 | 46.4% | 1.99 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Rice | L 3-31 | 244 | 1 | 20:28 | −0.124 | 30.5% | 1.17 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | @SE Louisiana | W 34-28 | — | — | — | +0.210 | 33.9% | 1.54 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | 241 | 2.0 | −0.017 | 35.1% | 1.27 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Houston Christian · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 4%; 5 wins 29%; 6 wins 46%; 7 wins 21%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Houston Christian is the newest program in FCS, still writing the story of how a faith-rooted university learns to win at this level.
Houston Christian is the newest program in FCS, still writing the story of how a faith-rooted university learns to win at this level.
Range of outcomes · Houston Christian · 2026