The rest of the season
One real test left: Lamar 69%
Win out 67% · expect 2.7 of 3 more wins
Stephen F. Austin's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lamar 69%, UT Rio Grande Valley 97%, Northwestern State >99%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Gavin Rutherford 2,059 · Rushing Jaylen Jenkins 610 · Receiving Devaughn Mortimer 478 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @McNeese | W 38-27 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Rutherford 302 · Rush Jenkins 82 · Rec Mortimer 72 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | East Texas A&M | W 44-7 | 2-0 | 2-0 | Pass Rutherford 140 · Rush Alford 76 · Rec Wayland 46 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Abilene Christian | W 26-7 | 3-0 | 2-0 | Pass Rutherford 243 · Rush Jenkins 87 · Rec Mortimer 89 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Prairie View A&M | W 31-10 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Rutherford 213 · Rush Jones 77 · Rec Wayland 85 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Northeastern State | W 63-14 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Rutherford 299 · Rush Jenkins 94 · Rec Harris 109 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Incarnate Word | W 28-26 | 6-0 | 3-0 | Pass Rutherford 291 · Rush Jones 70 · Rec Wayland 104 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Nicholls | W 56-0 | 7-0 | 4-0 | Pass Rutherford 233 · Rush Kitna 102 · Rec Mortimer 103 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | SE Louisiana | W 45-24 | 8-0 | 5-0 | Pass Rutherford 153 · Rush Jenkins 159 · Rec Kelley 100 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Houston Christian | W 37-6 | 9-0 | 6-0 | Pass Rutherford 185 · Rush Jenkins 36 · Rec Wayland 125 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Lamar | 4 pm ET69% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @UT Rio Grande Valley | 6 pm ET97% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 19 | Northwestern State | 7 pm ET>99% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Stephen F. Austin, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Houston Christian | W 37-6 | — | — | — | +0.029 | 36.7% | 1.43 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | SE Louisiana | W 45-24 | — | — | — | +0.389 | 50.0% | 1.34 | |
| Oct 17 | @Nicholls | W 56-0 | — | — | — | +0.515 | 59.2% | 1.28 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | Incarnate Word | W 28-26 | — | — | — | +0.112 | 38.7% | 1.31 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Northeastern State | W 63-14 | — | — | — | +0.709 | 56.9% | 1.71 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Prairie View A&M | W 31-10 | — | — | — | +0.325 | 49.2% | 1.35 | |
| Sep 12 | @Abilene Christian | W 26-7 | — | — | — | +0.274 | 41.2% | 1.52 | |
| Sep 5 | East Texas A&M | W 44-7 | — | — | — | +0.120 | 46.8% | 0.88 | Blowout win |
| Aug 29 | @McNeese | W 38-27 | — | — | — | +0.217 | 41.8% | 1.52 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.299 | 46.7% | 1.37 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last nine.
Range of outcomes · Stephen F. Austin · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
10 wins 1%; 11 wins 32%; 12 wins 67%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 9-0
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Stephen F. Austin is 9-0 and plays at Lamar next.
Stephen F. Austin is 9-0 and plays at Lamar next.
Range of outcomes · Stephen F. Austin · 2026