Stephen F. Austin beats Abilene Christian 26-7

Team pages: Stephen F. Austin · Abilene Christian

Stephen F. Austin3-026
Abilene Christian0-37Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Wildcat Stadium (TX), Abilene, Texas · Crowd 7,739ESPN+

Stephen F. Austin beat Abilene Christian 26-7.

We had Abilene Christian favored. Stephen F. Austin won.

Next: Stephen F. Austin beat Prairie View A&M 31-10, Sat Sep 19

Next: Abilene Christian beat Idaho 41-39, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Rutherford 69-yd TD pass to Mortimer, ties it 7-7 (Q2, 15:00). Stephen F. Austin went from 26% to 53% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Stephen F. Austin a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Stephen F. Austin was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Stephen F. Austin won by 19, after dipping to 26% in the first quarter.

Up to 74% in the first quarter, then Abilene Christian lost it.

26 unansweredStephen F. Austin · Q2 12:46
FinalStephen F. Austin 26-7 Abilene ChristianStephen F. Austin wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfLowest 26%Won26-712+27+19Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfLowest 26%Won26-712Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfLowest 0%High 74%Lost7-2612−27−19Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfLowest 0%High 74%Lost7-2612Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 15:00Rutherford 69-yd TD pass to Mortimer, ties it 7-7Stephen F. Austin 26% → 53% (+27)
  2. 2Q2 12:46Rutherford 13-yd TD pass to Edimo, Stephen F. Austin goes ahead 14-7Stephen F. Austin 57% → 76% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 15:00Rutherford 69-yd TD pass to Mortimer, ties it 7-7Abilene Christian 74% → 47% (−27)
  2. 2Q2 12:46Rutherford 13-yd TD pass to Edimo, Stephen F. Austin goes ahead 14-7Abilene Christian 43% → 24% (−19)
Stephen F. Austin’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Stephen F. Austin -3), at 53% for Stephen F. Austin (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Stephen F. Austin scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Abilene Christian on 1 of its 12.

Stephen F. Austin’s drives are teal, Abilene Christian’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Stephen F. Austin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntAbilene Christian: Punt, from 82 yards out to 79PuntStephen F. Austin: Turned over on downs, from 69 yards out to 35DownsAbilene Christian: Fumble, from 65 yards out to 53FumbleStephen F. Austin: Punt, from 47 yards out to 44PuntAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownStephen F. Austin: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Abilene Christian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntStephen F. Austin: Touchdown, from 32 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntStephen F. Austin: Field goal, from 68 yards out to 8Field goalAbilene Christian: Punt, from 65 yards out to 33PuntStephen F. Austin: Field goal, from 86 yards out to 33Field goalAbilene Christian: End of half, from 75 yards out to 79End of halfQ3Abilene Christian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 40PuntStephen F. Austin: Punt, from 99 yards out to 96PuntAbilene Christian: Interception, from 69 yards out to 29InterceptionStephen F. Austin: Fumble, from 78 yards out to 28FumbleAbilene Christian: Punt, from 72 yards out to 35PuntStephen F. Austin: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Abilene Christian: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 23Missed FGStephen F. Austin: Punt, from 77 yards out to 62PuntAbilene Christian: Punt, from 77 yards out to 51PuntStephen F. Austin: Uncategorized, from 82 yards out to 65Uncategorized

From Abilene Christian’s side

Abilene Christian’s best moment: Black 6-yd TD pass to Henry, Abilene Christian goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 0:23). It lifted Abilene Christian’s win chance by 14 points.

Box score

Stephen F. Austin 26, Abilene Christian 7

Stephen F. Austin covered −3 by 16. The total, 33, stayed under 50.5.

Stephen F. Austin leaders

  • Passing Gavin Rutherford 17 of 31, 243 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jaylen Jenkins 13 for 87 yds; Preston Alford 13 for 73 yds
  • Receiving Devaughn Mortimer 6 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Gerard Edimo 3 for 54 yds, 1 TD

Abilene Christian leaders

  • Passing John David Black 21 of 38, 267 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Deonte Dean 13 for 36 yds; Brandon Johnson 5 for 13 yds
  • Receiving Romelo Boykin 6 for 77 yds; Cristian Driver 5 for 75 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Stephen F. Austin · 2-0

Rated 96th in our preseason ratings, 102nd now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 44-7 vs East Texas A&M #240 of 668

won by 37 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 38-27 @ McNeese #239 of 668

won by 11 as a 12.5-point favorite

Last two games

Abilene Christian · 0-2

Rated 112th in our preseason ratings, 108th now.

Two straight losses.

L 10-33 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 23 as a 45.5-point underdog

Abilene Christian lost 10-33 at Texas Tech. Never had a real chance.

L 14-21 @ Lamar #143 of 668

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Abilene Christian lost 14-21 at Lamar. Chance to win started at 58%, low under 1%, high 72%.

Week by week

Abilene Christian

Wk 1: L 14-21 at Lamar▼7LamarWk 1: L 10-33 at Texas Tech▼23Texas Tech
  • Wk 1Lat Lamar14-21
  • Wk 1Lat Texas Tech10-33

Stephen F. Austin

Wk 1: W 38-27 at McNeese▲11McNeeseWk 1: W 44-7 vs East Texas A&M▲37East Texas A&M
  • Wk 1Wat McNeese38-27
  • Wk 1Wvs East Texas A&M44-7

The series

Stephen F. Austin leads the series 9-5

14 meetings since 2014 · Stephen F. Austin won the last meeting

Abilene Christian wonStephen F. Austin won2014: Abilene Christian by 22015: Abilene Christian by 32016: Stephen F. Austin by 112017: Stephen F. Austin by 102018: Stephen F. Austin by 32019: Abilene Christian by 72020: Stephen F. Austin by 32021: Stephen F. Austin by 142022: Stephen F. Austin by 32022: Stephen F. Austin by 32023: Abilene Christian by 72024: Stephen F. Austin by 132025: Abilene Christian by 82025: Stephen F. Austin by 720142025
  • 2025Stephen F. Austin 41-34
  • 2025Abilene Christian 28-20
  • 2024Stephen F. Austin 32-19
  • 2023Abilene Christian 34-27
  • 2022Stephen F. Austin 41-38

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Abilene Christian’s chances here.

50-50Model 39% · Line 40%Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian

Stephen F. Austin favored by 3 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Stephen F. Austin by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Abilene Christian has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.2 points (±5.6), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-16 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 302 miles to get here.

Where next