The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Tarleton State 27%, Austin Peay 35%
Win out 8% · expect 1.5 of 3 more wins
Abilene Christian's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tarleton State 27%, Austin Peay 35%, Eastern Kentucky 85%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Tucker Parks 1,285 · Rushing Rovaughn Banks Jr. 484 · Receiving Cristian Driver 430 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Lamar | L 14-21 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Black 142 · Rush Broome 75 · Rec Driver 56 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Texas Tech | L 10-33 134 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Black 119 · Rush Broome 52 · Rec Driver 93 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Stephen F. Austin | L 7-26 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Black 267 · Rush Dean 36 · Rec Boykin 77 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Idaho | W 41-39 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Parks 148 · Rush Banks Jr. 99 · Rec Dean 37 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Mercer | L 17-34 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass Parks 195 · Rush Banks Jr. 92 · Rec Baltrip 79 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | West Florida | W 35-7 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Pass Parks 155 · Rush Parks 97 · Rec York 56 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Central Arkansas | W 20-14 | 3-4 | 2-0 | Pass Parks 186 · Rush Parks 45 · Rec York 72 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @North Alabama | W 31-28 | 4-4 | 3-0 | Pass Parks 264 · Rush Parks 58 · Rec Driver 120 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | West Georgia | W 59-0 | 5-4 | 4-0 | Pass Parks 272 · Rush Dean 64 · Rec Driver 86 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Tarleton State | 7 pm ET27% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Austin Peay | 2 pm ET35% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Eastern Kentucky | 2 pm ET85% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Abilene Christian, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | West Georgia | W 59-0 | — | — | — | +0.418 | 47.8% | 1.36 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @North Alabama | W 31-28 | — | — | — | +0.197 | 50.8% | 1.16 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | Central Arkansas | W 20-14 | — | — | — | +0.242 | 54.4% | 0.88 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | West Florida | W 35-7 | — | — | — | +0.267 | 45.5% | 1.26 | Blowout win |
| Sep 26 | Mercer | L 17-34 | — | — | — | +0.023 | 54.4% | 1.14 | |
| Sep 19 | @Idaho | W 41-39 | — | — | — | +0.259 | 45.5% | 1.19 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Stephen F. Austin | L 7-26 | — | — | — | −0.076 | 39.7% | 1.16 | |
| Sep 5 | @Texas Tech | L 10-33 | 194 | 1 | 27:48 | −0.138 | 27.0% | 1.27 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Lamar | L 14-21 | — | — | — | +0.121 | 31.7% | 1.46 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 194 | 1.0 | +0.146 | 44.1% | 1.21 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Range of outcomes · Abilene Christian · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 7%; 6 wins 47%; 7 wins 38%; 8 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
Abilene Christian is 5-4 and plays at Tarleton State next.
Abilene Christian is 5-4 and plays at Tarleton State next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Abilene Christian · 2026