The rest of the season
One real test left: Abilene Christian 65%
Win out 52% · expect 2.4 of 3 more wins
Austin Peay's chance to win each game left, from our model: Eastern Kentucky 91%, Abilene Christian 65%, Central Arkansas 88%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Chris Parson 1,981 · Rushing Chris Parson 404 · Receiving Marvin Sims 665 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Gardner-Webb | W 35-17 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Parson 308 · Rush Simmons 73 · Rec Harper 108 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Vanderbilt | L 9-28 109 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Parson 116 · Rush Simmons 26 · Rec Sims 55 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Morehead State | W 63-7 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Parson 260 · Rush Williams 120 · Rec Harper 124 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @West Florida | W 38-16 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Parson 149 · Rush Simmons 78 · Rec Robinson 108 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | UT Martin | W 35-12 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Parson 254 · Rush Parson 82 · Rec Robinson 65 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | New Haven | W 42-17 | 5-1 | 1-0 | Pass Parson 309 · Rush Richardson 17 · Rec Sims 141 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Tarleton State | L 32-40 | 5-2 | 1-1 | Pass Parson 231 · Rush Parson 102 · Rec Harper 106 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @West Georgia | W 24-10 | 6-2 | 2-1 | Pass Parson 139 · Rush Simmons 77 · Rec Simmons 47 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @North Alabama | W 27-21 | 7-2 | 3-1 | Pass Parson 215 · Rush Parson 61 · Rec Harper 98 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Eastern Kentucky | 4 pm ET91% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Abilene Christian | 2 pm ET65% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Central Arkansas | 5 pm ET88% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Austin Peay, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @North Alabama | W 27-21 | — | — | — | +0.111 | 34.4% | 1.57 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @West Georgia | W 24-10 | — | — | — | +0.065 | 41.8% | 0.82 | |
| Oct 10 | Tarleton State | L 32-40 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 40.6% | 1.23 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | New Haven | W 42-17 | — | — | — | +0.178 | 31.9% | 1.71 | |
| Sep 26 | UT Martin | W 35-12 | — | — | — | +0.230 | 46.4% | 1.31 | |
| Sep 19 | @West Florida | W 38-16 | — | — | — | +0.057 | 34.9% | 1.63 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | Morehead State | W 63-7 | — | — | — | +0.824 | 59.3% | 1.80 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Vanderbilt | L 9-28 | 178 | 0 | 24:13 | +0.029 | 34.0% | 1.19 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 27 | Gardner-Webb | W 35-17 | — | — | — | +0.288 | 38.2% | 1.88 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 178 | 0.0 | +0.230 | 40.2% | 1.46 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Austin Peay · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 8%; 9 wins 40%; 10 wins 52%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
Austin Peay is the Clarksville program that went 38 years without beating an FBS opponent, then routed Middle Tennessee in 2025 to end the drought and validate a new coaching era.
Austin Peay is 7-2 and hosts Eastern Kentucky next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Austin Peay · 2026