Austin Peay beats North Alabama 27-21
Team pages: Austin Peay · North Alabama
Austin Peay beat North Alabama 27-21. Share this game
We had Austin Peay favored. It won.
Next: Austin Peay vs Eastern Kentucky, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET
Next: North Alabama at Central Arkansas, Sat Oct 31 · 5:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Parson 41-yd TD pass to Harper, Austin Peay goes ahead 24-21 (Q3, 0:16). Austin Peay went from 49% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Austin Peay a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Austin Peay was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.
A tight one: Austin Peay bottomed out at 38% and won.
North Alabama never had better than a 62% chance.
Austin Peay 27-21 North Alabama
Austin Peay wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Alabama 21-27 Austin PeayNorth Alabama lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:01PenaltyWade 74-yd TD pass to Johnson; roughing the passer on Apsu, North Alabama goes ahead 21-17Austin Peay 72% → 49% (−23)
- 2Q3 0:16Parson 41-yd TD pass to Harper, Austin Peay goes ahead 24-21Austin Peay 49% → 73% (+24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:01PenaltyWade 74-yd TD pass to Johnson; roughing the passer on Apsu, North Alabama goes ahead 21-17North Alabama 28% → 51% (+23)
- 2Q3 0:16Parson 41-yd TD pass to Harper, Austin Peay goes ahead 24-21North Alabama 51% → 27% (−24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Austin Peay -9.5), at 70% for Austin Peay (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Austin Peay scored on 5 of its 12 drives; North Alabama on 3 of its 11.
Austin Peay’s drives are teal, North Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Alabama’s side
North Alabama’s best moment: Wade 74-yd TD pass to Johnson; roughing the passer on Apsu, North Alabama goes ahead 21-17 (Q3 1:01). It lifted North Alabama’s win chance by 23 points.
Box score
Austin Peay 27, North Alabama 21
North Alabama covered +9.5 by 3.5. The total, 48, stayed under 48.5.
Austin Peay leaders
- Passing Chris Parson 17 of 32, 215 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Chris Parson 19 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Courtland Simmons 6 for 35 yds
- Receiving Denver Harper 6 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Marvin Sims 6 for 94 yds, 1 TD
North Alabama leaders
- Passing Destin Wade 18 of 28, 247 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Destin Wade 19 for 68 yds; Roderick Taylor Jr. 8 for 38 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Xavier Johnson 8 for 135 yds, 2 TD; Snap Reed 2 for 42 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Austin Peay · 6-2
Rated 118th in our preseason ratings, 110th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
North Alabama · 4-3
Rated 207th in our preseason ratings, 174th now, up 33 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Eastern Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 20-16 @ Eastern Kentucky No. 191 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 23-20 vs Western Illinois No. 192 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 7-point favorite
L 25-30 @ SE Louisiana No. 153 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 22-10 vs Samford No. 236 of 668 teams
won by 12 as a 7-point favorite
Week by week
North Alabama
- Wk 2Lat SE Louisiana25-30
- Wk 3Wvs Alcorn State38-20
- Wk 4Wvs Western Illinois23-20
- Wk 5Wat Eastern Kentucky20-16
- Wk 7Lvs Abilene Christian28-31
Austin Peay
- Wk 3Wat West Florida38-16
- Wk 4Wvs UT Martin35-12
- Wk 5Wvs New Haven42-17
- Wk 6Lvs Tarleton State32-40
- Wk 7Wat West Georgia24-10
Power rating by week
Austin Peay is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Austin Peay leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 2022 · Austin Peay has won the last 4
- 2025Austin Peay 56-28
- 2024Austin Peay 31-17
- 2023Austin Peay 49-39
- 2022Austin Peay 38-35
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on North Alabama’s chances here.
Austin Peay favored by 9.5 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Austin Peay by 9.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward North Alabama.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +11.5 → +9.5 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
North Alabama is worth +11.7 points (±4.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 0-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.7 at home vs. away over 44 games — inside the ±9.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Alabama5th1-1
- Austin Peay3rd2-1