The rest of the season
Three real tests left: North Alabama 13%, Central Arkansas 22%, West Florida 23%
Win out 1% · expect 0.6 of 3 more wins
West Georgia's chance to win each game left, from our model: Central Arkansas 22%, North Alabama 13%, West Florida 23%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Colton FitzGerald 1,666 · Rushing Christian Monfort 208 · Receiving DK Daniel 397 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Chattanooga | L 10-24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hurst 124 · Rush Montgomery 31 · Rec Schuchts 57 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Kennesaw State | L 0-47 132 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Hurst 93 · Rush Marble 21 · Rec Leverett 28 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Arkansas State | L 7-52 115 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Fitzgerald 149 · Rush Monfort 20 · Rec Lockley 76 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @East Tennessee State | L 27-35 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Fitzgerald 324 · Rush Montgomery 55 · Rec Jones 109 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Fort Valley State | W 49-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass Fitzgerald 384 · Rush Monfort 37 · Rec Daniel 80 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 20-30 | 1-5 | 0-1 | Pass Fitzgerald 282 · Rush Gates 39 · Rec Lockley 86 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Austin Peay | L 10-24 | 1-6 | 0-2 | Pass Fitzgerald 324 · Rush Monfort 22 · Rec Daniel 87 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Tarleton State | L 6-49 | 1-7 | 0-3 | Pass Fitzgerald 130 · Rush Monfort 46 · Rec Daniel 78 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Abilene Christian | L 0-59 | 1-8 | 0-4 | Pass Fitzgerald 58 · Rush Monfort 61 · Rec Henry 34 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Central Arkansas | 5 pm ET22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | North Alabama | 2 pm ET13% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | West Florida | 2 pm ET23% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for West Georgia, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Abilene Christian | L 0-59 | — | — | — | −0.299 | 21.1% | 1.25 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Tarleton State | L 6-49 | — | — | — | −0.209 | 34.7% | 0.97 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | Austin Peay | L 10-24 | — | — | — | −0.201 | 31.4% | 1.29 | |
| Oct 10 | @Eastern Kentucky | L 20-30 | — | — | — | +0.059 | 49.1% | 0.91 | |
| Sep 26 | Fort Valley State | W 49-7 | — | — | — | +0.330 | 50.0% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @East Tennessee State | L 27-35 | — | — | — | +0.042 | 38.6% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Arkansas State | L 7-52 | 246 | 4 | 27:58 | −0.099 | 38.6% | 1.19 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 3 | @Kennesaw State | L 0-47 | 160 | 2 | 25:54 | −0.248 | 15.1% | 0.89 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | Chattanooga | L 10-24 | — | — | — | +0.006 | 32.7% | 1.06 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 203 | 3.0 | −0.069 | 34.6% | 1.14 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Range of outcomes · West Georgia · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 52%; 2 wins 38%; 3 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among UAC teams the same season
West Georgia is the Division II riser that started 5–0 in FCS transition year two and is learning what sustainable FCS football looks like.
West Georgia is the Division II riser that started 5–0 in FCS transition year two and is learning what sustainable FCS football looks like.
Range of outcomes · West Georgia · 2026