Abilene Christian beats Idaho 41-39

Team pages: Abilene Christian · Idaho

Abilene Christian1-341
Idaho0-439Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Kibbie Dome, Moscow, Idaho · Crowd 6,246ESPN+

Abilene Christian beat Idaho 41-39.

We had Abilene Christian favored. It won.

Next: Abilene Christian lost to Mercer 34-17, Sat Sep 26

Next: Idaho beat Montana State 35-34, Fri Oct 2

How it swung

The turning point: Udom 7-yd fumble return TD, Abilene Christian leads 34-24 (Q4, 10:19). Abilene Christian went from 53% to 90% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Abilene Christian a 55% chance, and the closing betting line (Abilene Christian was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

A tight one: Abilene Christian bottomed out at 26% and won.

Up to 74% in the first quarter, then Idaho lost it.

FinalAbilene Christian 41-39 IdahoAbilene Christian wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q465% at halfIdahoLowest 26%High 99%Won41-3912+21+37Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q465% at halfIdahoLowest 26%High 99%Won41-3912Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q435% at halfIdahoLowest 1%High 74%Lost39-4112−21−37Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q435% at halfIdahoLowest 1%High 74%Lost39-4112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:024th and 2Parks 2-yd TD pass to Baltrip, Abilene Christian goes ahead 21-17Abilene Christian 44% → 65% (+21)
  2. 2Q4 10:19FumbleUdom 7-yd fumble return TD, Abilene Christian leads 34-24Abilene Christian 53% → 90% (+37)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 0:024th and 2Parks 2-yd TD pass to Baltrip, Abilene Christian goes ahead 21-17Idaho 56% → 35% (−21)
  2. 2Q4 10:19FumbleUdom 7-yd fumble return TD, Abilene Christian leads 34-24Idaho 47% → 10% (−37)
Abilene Christian’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Abilene Christian -1.5), at 46% for Abilene Christian (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Abilene Christian scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Idaho on 6 of its 11.

Abilene Christian’s drives are teal, Idaho’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Idaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 21Field goalQ2Abilene Christian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntIdaho: Punt, from 80 yards out to 67PuntAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 24 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntAbilene Christian: Punt, from 90 yards out to 46PuntIdaho: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: End of half, from 65 yards out to 43End of halfQ3Abilene Christian: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalQ4Idaho: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 59FumbleAbilene Christian: Field goal, from 41 yards out to 34Field goalIdaho: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 93Fumble TDIdaho: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 63DownsAbilene Christian: Touchdown, from 37 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: Punt, from 90 yards out to 72PuntIdaho: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownAbilene Christian: End of game, from 35 yards out to 19End of game

From Idaho’s side

Idaho’s best moment: 33-yd punt (Q2 5:24). It lifted Idaho’s win chance by 15 points.

5 lead changes. Too close to call on 55% of plays.

Box score

Abilene Christian 41, Idaho 39

Abilene Christian covered −1.5 by 0.5. The total, 80, went over 55.5.

Abilene Christian leaders

  • Passing Tucker Parks 14 of 21, 148 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Rovaughn Banks Jr. 22 for 99 yds; Tucker Parks 13 for 74 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Deonte Dean 1 for 37 yds, 1 TD; Dallas Dudley 1 for 31 yds

Idaho leaders

  • Passing Joshua Wood 22 of 34, 326 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Joshua Wood 13 for 37 yds, 4 TD; Hayden Kincheloe 9 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Tony Harste 6 for 151 yds, 1 TD; Noah West-Baranco 6 for 60 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Abilene Christian · 0-3

Rated 112th in our preseason ratings, 111th now.

Three straight losses.

L 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin #99 of 668

lost by 19 as a 3-point underdog

Abilene Christian lost 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 74%.

L 10-33 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 23 as a 45.5-point underdog

Abilene Christian lost 10-33 at Texas Tech. Never had a real chance.

L 14-21 @ Lamar #143 of 668

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Abilene Christian lost 14-21 at Lamar. Chance to win started at 58%, low under 1%, high 72%.

Last three games

Idaho · 0-3

Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 164th now.

Three straight losses.

L 17-23 vs Lamar #151 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 17-23 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 77%.

L 14-66 @ UtahTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 52 as a 38.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 14-66 at Utah. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 34-38 @ Cal Poly #218 of 668

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 34-38 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Week by week

Idaho

Wk 1: L 34-38 at Cal Poly▼4Cal PolyWk 1: L 14-66 at Utah▼52UtahWk 2: L 17-23 vs Lamar▼6Lamar
  • Wk 1Lat Cal Poly34-38
  • Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
  • Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23

Abilene Christian

Wk 1: L 14-21 at Lamar▼7LamarWk 1: L 10-33 at Texas Tech▼23Texas TechWk 2: L 7-26 vs Stephen F. Austin▼19Stephen F. Aust…
  • Wk 1Lat Lamar14-21
  • Wk 1Lat Texas Tech10-33
  • Wk 2Lvs Stephen F. Austin7-26

Power rating by week

Abilene Christian is rated 3.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-9Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2IdahoAbilene Christian

The series

Idaho leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Idaho won the last meeting

  • 2024Idaho 27-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Idaho’s chances here.

50-50Model 45% · Line 45%Abilene ChristianIdaho

Abilene Christian favored by 1.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Abilene Christian by 1.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 54.5now 55.5

Total: 54.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.

50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 2-15 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,343 miles to get here.

Where next