Lamar beats Idaho 23-17
Lamar beat Idaho 23-17. Share this game
We had Idaho favored. Lamar won.
Next: Lamar beat Nicholls 49-18, Sat Sep 26
How it swung
The turning point: Miller 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 23-17 (Q4, 1:24). Lamar went from 76% to 93% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Lamar a 42% chance, and the closing betting line (Lamar was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.
A tight one: Lamar bottomed out at 23% and won.
Up to 77% in the first quarter, then Idaho lost it.
Lamar 23-17 Idaho
Lamar wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Idaho 17-23 LamarIdaho lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:59Special teamsMuffed punt, recovered by the kicking teamLamar 40% → 24% (−16)
- 2Q4 1:24Miller 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 23-17Lamar 76% → 93% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 7:59Special teamsMuffed punt, recovered by the kicking teamIdaho 60% → 76% (+16)
- 2Q4 1:24Miller 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 23-17Idaho 24% → 7% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Idaho -4.5), at 35% for Lamar (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Lamar scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Idaho on 3 of its 12.
Lamar’s drives are teal, Idaho’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Idaho’s side
Idaho’s best moment: Muffed punt, recovered by the kicking team (Q1 7:59). It lifted Idaho’s win chance by 16 points.
Box score
Lamar 23, Idaho 17
Lamar covered +4.5 by 10.5. The total, 40, stayed under 51.5.
Lamar leaders
- Passing Aiden McCown 13 of 22, 159 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jojo Uga 15 for 105 yds; Aiden McCown 8 for 20 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Davin Driskell 3 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Britain Simmons 3 for 39 yds
Idaho leaders
- Passing Joshua Wood 20 of 40, 205 yds
- Rushing Joshua Wood 19 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Damonte Bias 7 for 15 yds
- Receiving Lonyatta Alexander 4 for 64 yds; Ryan Jezioro 7 for 48 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Lamar · 1-1
Rated 149th in our preseason ratings, 143rd now.
1-1 in its last two, including a 7-point win over Abilene Christian as a 7.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Idaho
- Wk 1Lat Cal Poly34-38
- Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
Lamar
- Wk 1Wvs Abilene Christian21-14
- Wk 1Lat Louisiana7-38
The series
Idaho leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2023 · Idaho won the last meeting
- 2023Idaho 42-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Idaho’s chances here.
Idaho favored by 4.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Idaho by 4.5, on the usual path until Q2 3:41
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Idaho.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −1.5 → −4.5 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 2-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,683 miles to get here.