Lamar at Idaho
How they got here
Last two games
Lamar · 1-1
Picked #148 in the preseason · now #129 — better than expected.
1-1 in its last two, capped by a 7-point win over Abilene Christian as a 7.5-point underdog.
L 7–38 @ Louisiana #40 of 669
lost by 31 as a 20.5-point underdog
W 21–14 vs Abilene Christian #98 of 669
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
Lamar
- Lamar needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Lamar is the Beaumont Cardinals that won three straight Southland titles in the 1960s, disappeared into mediocrity, and has spent a decade learning how to belong again.
Idaho
- Idaho needs 6 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Idaho football is a program that once commanded the I-AA postseason, fell behind its in-state rival, could not sustain FBS economics, and now rebuilds in the Big Sky with one advantage: deep institutional memory and a city that believes in them.
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2023 · Lamar won the last meeting
- 2026Lamar 23–17
- 2023Idaho 42–17
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Idaho’s chances here.
Home −4.5 · O/U 51.5
Conditions
Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 92nd percentile.
50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1–1 home, 2–15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,683 miles to get here.
Lamar 23 – Idaho 17
Missed — picked Idaho, Lamar won.
Recent games
Idaho
- Wk 1Lat Cal Poly34-38
- Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
Lamar
- Wk 1Wvs Abilene Christian21-14
- Wk 1Lat Louisiana7-38
Trajectory
Lamar beat Idaho 23-17 — the pregame pick had Idaho instead.