The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 70%
Win out 63% · expect 2.6 of 3 more wins
Incarnate Word's chance to win each game left, from our model: SE Louisiana 70%, Nicholls 98%, East Texas A&M 91%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Emmett Brown 2,390 · Rushing Jayden Hibbler 473 · Receiving Isaiah Champagne 435 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Oklahoma Panhandle | W 76-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Northern Arizona | L 28-38 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 426 · Rush Turner 72 · Rec Phipps 125 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Houston Christian | W 30-23 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Brown 259 · Rush Hibbler 70 · Rec Champagne 113 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Texas State | L 10-63 159 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Brown 242 · Rush Turner 23 · Rec Alexander 67 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 26-28 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Brown 372 · Rush Hibbler 57 · Rec Garcia 86 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Lamar | L 35-38 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Brown 303 · Rush Brown 50 · Rec Emmers 104 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 41-16 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Brown 193 · Rush Hibbler 95 · Rec Hibbler 92 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | McNeese | W 38-6 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass Brown 283 · Rush Brown 72 · Rec Alexander 67 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Northwestern State | W 66-14 | 5-4 | 4-2 | Pass Brown 312 · Rush Hibbler 102 · Rec Alexander 173 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @SE Louisiana | 7 pm ET70% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Nicholls | 3 pm ET98% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @East Texas A&M | 4 pm ET91% to win |
Win chances are our model for Incarnate Word, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Northwestern State | W 66-14 | — | — | — | +0.304 | 49.4% | 1.45 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | McNeese | W 38-6 | — | — | — | +0.213 | 45.8% | 1.19 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 41-16 | — | — | — | +0.141 | 55.7% | 0.74 | |
| Oct 10 | @Lamar | L 35-38 | — | — | — | −0.077 | 44.8% | 0.88 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Stephen F. Austin | L 26-28 | — | — | — | +0.107 | 39.2% | 1.35 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Texas State | L 10-63 | 358 | 2 | 30:27 | −0.230 | 37.4% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Houston Christian | W 30-23 | — | — | — | +0.069 | 43.8% | 0.90 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Northern Arizona | L 28-38 | — | — | — | +0.084 | 54.2% | 1.08 | |
| Aug 29 | Oklahoma Panhandle | W 76-14 | — | — | — | +0.546 | 62.0% | 1.32 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 358 | 2.0 | +0.128 | 48.0% | 1.10 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Incarnate Word · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 3%; 7 wins 34%; 8 wins 63%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Incarnate Word is 5-4 and plays at SE Louisiana next.
Incarnate Word is 5-4 and plays at SE Louisiana next.
Range of outcomes · Incarnate Word · 2026