Texas State routs Incarnate Word 63-10

Team pages: Incarnate Word · Texas State

Incarnate Word2-210
Texas State2-263Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, Texas · Crowd 23,594USA Network

Texas State routed Incarnate Word 63-10.

We had Texas State favored. It won.

Next: Incarnate Word lost to Stephen F. Austin 28-26, Sat Oct 3

Next: Texas State lost to San Diego State 31-29, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas State an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas State was a 30.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Texas State led by 21 after the first quarter and by 32 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+53+53
Punt return TDTexas State · Q4 1:39
FinalTexas State 63-10 Incarnate WordTexas State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Texas StateWon63-10ScoresPunt return TD
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Texas StateWon63-10ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Texas StateLowest 0%Lost10-63ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Texas StateLowest 0%Lost10-63ScoresPunt return TD

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Texas State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas State -30.5), at 98% for Texas State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Texas State scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Incarnate Word on 2 of its 14.

Texas State’s drives are teal, Incarnate Word’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Texas State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownTexas State: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 69DownsTexas State: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntTexas State: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntTexas State: Touchdown, from 73 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Incarnate Word: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 34DownsTexas State: Punt, from 66 yards out to 63PuntIncarnate Word: Interception, from 61 yards out to 7InterceptionTexas State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 5Field goalQ3Incarnate Word: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntTexas State: Turned over on downs, from 68 yards out to 22DownsIncarnate Word: Punt, from 78 yards out to 72PuntTexas State: Fumble, from 49 yards out to 1FumbleIncarnate Word: Punt, from 99 yards out to 69PuntQ4Texas State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntTexas State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 95PuntIncarnate Word: Interception, from 58 yards out to 47InterceptionTexas State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownIncarnate Word: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 81 yards out to 76Punt TDIncarnate Word: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsTexas State: End of game, from 0 yards out to 0End of game

Box score

Texas State 63, Incarnate Word 10

Texas State covered −30.5 by 22.5. The total, 73, went over 66.5.

Incarnate WordTexas StateTotal yardsIncarnate Word 358Texas State 658358658Passing yardsIncarnate Word 283Texas State 320283320Rushing yardsIncarnate Word 75Texas State 33875338First downsIncarnate Word 23Texas State 252325TurnoversIncarnate Word 2Texas State 121Time of possessionIncarnate Word 30:27Texas State 29:3330:2729:33
Team totalsIncarnate WordTexas State
Total yards358658
Passing29 of 53, 283 yds20 of 23, 320 yds
Rushing37 for 75 yds46 for 338 yds
First downs2325
Third down6 of 2010 of 14
Fourth down4 of 71 of 2
Turnovers21
Penalties7 for 60 yds6 for 51 yds
Time of possession30:2729:33

Incarnate Word leaders

  • Passing Emmett Brown 24 of 44, 242 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Lontrell Turner 5 for 23 yds; Jayden Hibbler 6 for 18 yds
  • Receiving Roy Alexander 3 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Champagne 6 for 50 yds

Texas State leaders

  • Passing Brad Jackson 17 of 20, 244 yds, 5 TD
  • Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 9 for 140 yds, 1 TD; Juntavious Harris 4 for 59 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Zechariah Sample 4 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Beau Sparks 2 for 66 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

93° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas State favoredIncarnate Word favored100%Win chanceTexas StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Texas State favoredIncarnate Word favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:48 left5:08 p.m.
Incarnate Word 0, Texas State 0 · Texas State 98% to win
no rain · 93°
Burgess 2-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at San Marcos (awos) airport, 3.8 miles away, and New Braunfels Muni Apt (was 3r5) airport, 14 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Incarnate Word · 2-1

Rated 127th in our preseason ratings, 150th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 30-23 vs Houston Christian #219 of 668

won by 7 as a 14-point favorite

Incarnate Word won 30-23 vs Houston Christian. Chance to win started at 88%, low 47%, high better than 99%.

L 28-38 @ Northern Arizona #159 of 668

lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog

Incarnate Word lost 28-38 at Northern Arizona. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 56%.

W 76-14 vs Oklahoma Panhandle

Last three games

Texas State · 1-2

Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 38th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 49-35 vs North Texas #111 of 668

won by 14 as a 3-point favorite

Texas State won 49-35 vs North Texas. Chance to win started at 69%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

L 26-31 vs UTSA #14 of 668

lost by 5 as a 1.5-point favorite

Texas State lost 26-31 vs UTSA. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 85%.

L 7-59 @ TexasTop 25 #5 of 668

lost by 52 as a 29.5-point underdog

Texas State lost 7-59 at Texas. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

Week by week

Texas State

Wk 1: L 7-59 at Texas▼52TexasWk 2: L 26-31 vs UTSA▼5UTSAWk 3: W 49-35 vs North Texas▲14North Texas
  • Wk 1Lat Texas7-59
  • Wk 2Lvs UTSA26-31
  • Wk 3Wvs North Texas49-35

Incarnate Word

Wk 1: W 76-14 vs Oklahoma Panhandle▲62Oklahoma Panhan…Wk 2: L 28-38 at Northern Arizona▼10Northern ArizonaWk 3: W 30-23 vs Houston Christian▲7Houston Christi…
  • Wk 1Wvs Oklahoma Panhandle76-14
  • Wk 2Lat Northern Arizona28-38
  • Wk 3Wvs Houston Christian30-23

Power rating by week

Texas State is rated 9.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

8-0-8Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Texas StateIncarnate Word

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2016 · Incarnate Word won the last meeting

  • 2021Incarnate Word 42-34Texas State lost 34-42 vs Incarnate Word. Chance to win started at 75%, low 3%, high 92%.
  • 2016Texas State 48-17

Each line is Texas State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Texas State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 88%Line · 99%Incarnate WordTexas State

Texas State favored by 30.5 · Total 66.5

How games like this usually go

Texas State by 30.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Texas State.

opened −29.5now −30.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 63.5now 66.5

Spread: −29.5 → −30.5 · Total: 63.5 → 66.5

The books’ cut: 3.6%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.

Incarnate Word at Texas State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos

  • 92°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 65weather score, Rough
  • Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Bobcat Stadium that day, a 8 pm kickoff would have scored 93, against 65 at 5 pm.

  • 11 am: 58, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 51, Rough
  • 3:15 pm: 53, Rough
  • 5 pm: 65, Rough (this game)
  • 6 pm: 76, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 8 pm: 93, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Texas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

47% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (21-24 home, 11-37 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 44 miles to get here.

Where next